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262. The Rise of Petroyuan
- Author:
- Dan Steinbock
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the late 20th century, U.S. petrodollar dominated the world economy. In the 21st century, we are witnessing the rise of the Chinese petroyuan. This ascent could speed up the erosion of the dollar’s dominance after a century of power. The U.S. dollar still accounts for 39% of international payments – more than the euro (33%), English pound (7%), Japanese yen (3%) and Chinese yuan (28%) – but times are changing.
- Topic:
- Oil, History, Natural Resources, Economy, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
263. Safeguarding Australia's Security Interests Through Closer Pacific Ties
- Author:
- Greg Colton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Greater Australian engagement in the Pacific Islands region is needed if Canberra wants to ensure regional stability and underpin Australia’s national security. Inconsistent engagement by Australia, the United States, France and New Zealand in the Pacific Islands region has created space that non-traditional powers have exploited to engage with sovereign Pacific Island states. There is an increasing risk of geostrategic competition in the region, particularly with the growing influence of China and the economic leverage it holds over some indebted Pacific Island nations. The Australian Government should pursue a deliberate strategy of forging stronger links with its traditional partners in the region, and more equitable partnerships with its Pacific Island neighbours, if it is to underpin regional stability and strengthen Australia’s national security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, National Security, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, France, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
264. How Imran Khan Might Change Pakistan and its U.S. Relations
- Author:
- Michael Kugelman, Arif Rafiq, Tamanna Salikuddin, and Moeed Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Many anticipate that as the new prime minister, Imran Khan will change Pakistan and alter its relations with the United States and regional powers. Khan’s first speech to the nation was moderate in tone and substance. He has an ambitious reform agenda that above all promises to deal with corruption. What domestic constraints will he face? Will his being a successful populist, the first since the 1970s, embolden him to pursue transformative policies such as on taxation and land reform? How will his government handle Pakistan’s looming economic crisis? Will he inevitably butt heads with the military over its budget and Pakistan’s policies toward countering terrorism? Is Khan prepared to modify his deeply negative views on the U.S. role in Afghanistan? How far should he be expected to go curbing the Afghan Taliban and pushing it toward peace talks? Can he improve relations with India and also satisfy his religious-political base? These and other questions were addressed in a discussion among a distinguished panel of experts on Pakistan hosted by the Middle East Institute (MEI). The panelists are Michael Kugelman (Wilson Center), Arif Rafiq (Cizier Consulting), Tamanna Salikuddin (U.S. Institute of Peace) and Moeed Yusuf (U.S. Institute of Peace). MEI’s director for Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, Marvin Weinbaum, moderated.
- Topic:
- Politics, Bilateral Relations, Reform, Taliban, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
265. Grasping Power with Both Hands: Social Credit, the Mass Line, and Party Control
- Author:
- Samantha Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The CCP’s development of the ‘social credit’ system is another step in the Party’s long exploration of ways to fuse political control and economic prosperity. The expanding global reach of China’s economy means that social credit’s fusion of social and political control will also be used to bend entities outside China’s borders towards the Party’s political objectives. Dozens of international airlines, including four US airlines, recently discovered what this means in practice.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economy, Ideology, and Surveillance
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
266. Lifting US Sanctions on Sudan: Rationale and Reality
- Author:
- Emile LeBrun and Claire McEvoy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- In October 2017 the United States lifted three of the most significant components of its sanctions regime against Sudan as part of a shift in bilateral relations with Khartoum. Lifting US Sanctions on Sudan: Rationale and Reality describes the specific sanctions changes, their stated rationales, and their documented and likely future effects on Sudan’s internal conflicts, particularly in Darfur. It finds that although the sanctions themselves had a broad impact on Sudan’s economy, they did not consistently hinder key regime functions, including government institutions’ ability to transact in US dollars, obtain US-origin goods and services, and acquire military and dual-use materiel. The sanctions-easing process has improved the Sudanese government’s immediate adherence to its international humanitarian obligations in Darfur and the Two Areas, and its dialogue with diplomats and humanitarians. In the longer term, however, the easing of sanctions effectively reflects international acceptance of Sudan’s longstanding strategy of seeking militarized counter-insurgency solutions to its internal conflicts while largely ignoring efforts to achieve negotiated settlements. On the ground this approach is currently reflected in the government’s neglect of formal peace processes in favour of moving directly to ‘post-conflict’ civilian disarmament—which is being implemented by a militia, in violation of the UN arms embargo, and being used as a counter-insurgency instrument—and placing pressure on internally displaced persons to return home. The easing of sanctions is likely to legitimate these tactics.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Economy, and Disarmament
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and United States of America
267. Where Do Profits and Jobs Come From? Employment and Distribution in the US Economy
- Author:
- Lance Taylor and Özlem Ömer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- “Meso” level analysis of 16 producing sectors sheds light on broad forces shaping growth of employment and profits. In a growth decomposition from 1990 through 2016, employment responds positively to output increases and negatively to rising productivity. The macro profit share responds positively to sectoral productivity and demand shifts, and negatively to real wage increases. The decomposition weights suggest that wage repression raises profits in business services, education and health, wholesale and retail trade, and parts of manufacturing. Observed profit growth was robust in manufacturing, trade, finance and insurance, and information. The latter two (and wholesale trade) benefitted from favorable demand shifts. However, they generate less than a quarter of total profits. Owners of real estate receive more than a quarter but their share is not increasing. Growth of the remaining one-half of profits has been due to demand shifts and productivity growth which exceeded real wage increases. Market power matters in all sectors. The strongest effects may act against employment and real wages in labor markets.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Income Inequality, Economy, Monopoly, Rent, Minimum Wage, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
268. Yemen at the UN – May 2018 Review
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- In May, Houthi forces were clearly on the defensive across most of Yemen, in particular losing ground in Hudaydah governorate as various anti-Houthi groups, backed by Emirati airpower, advanced on Hudaydah city. A Saudi-led coalition plan for a military offensive on the city last year was derailed due to a lack of US support and international outcry over the likelihood of massive humanitarian fallout. Last month, however, a Western official confirmed to the Sana’a Center that Washington and London had given the green light for the current offensive to take Hudaydah city, but with the caveat that the ports were not to be attacked (see ‘Coalition-Backed Forces Advancing on Hudaydah Port’ and ‘Anti-Houthi Forces Make Gains in Taiz’). On May 8, United States President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. Through the rest of the month, his administration significantly increased its bellicose rhetoric towards, and imposed punitive financial sanctions against, Tehran, often citing Iran’s supposed military support of Yemen’s Houthis as among the justifications (see ‘Washington Exits ‘Iran Deal’ and Escalates Tensions With Tehran’). Meanwhile in Europe, it became public that since February the United Kingdom, France and Germany – all co-signatories to the Iran deal – have been pursuing talks with Tehran to help end the Yemen war, with all sides reporting progress (see ‘EU Countries in Negotiations With Iran to End Yemen Conflict’). Media reports last month revealed that US military personnel were playing a more direct and extensive role in the Yemen conflict than the Pentagon had previously admitted, while a high-level Yemeni government official also confirmed to the Sana’a Center that the US was deploying military drones in direct support of anti-Houthi ground operations (see ‘US Special Forces and Military Drones Active in Anti-Houthi Operations’). Simultaneously in Washington, lawmakers in both houses of the US Congress were pursuing legislation to increase transparency and controls on US involvement in the Yemen war (see ‘Congress Scrutinizes US Role in Yemen Conflict and Detainee Torture’). Through the first half of May, the internationally recognized Yemeni government and Abu Dhabi traded barbs in public over the latter’s move to land troops on Socotra island and seize control of the airport and marine terminal. Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed Obaid bin Dagher called it “an assault on Yemen’s sovereignty,” while the United Arab Emirates blamed the Muslim Brotherhood for launching a smear campaign against it. By mid-month, Saudi intervention had helped de-escalate the confrontation (see ‘UAE-Yemeni Government Standoff Over Socotra Island‘). In the second half of May, Socotra and parts of eastern Yemen were then hit by two cyclones, with coalition partners heeding subsequent Yemeni government appeals for the rapid deployment of humanitarian aid to assist the affected populations (see ‘Two Cyclones Flood Socotra’). In economic developments, President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s March decision to liberalize fuel imports again led to market instability as a three-day fuel crisis gripped Aden (see ‘Fuel Crisis in Aden’). Meanwhile in Sana’a, the CEOs of the country’s largest banks gathered for a meeting, organized by the Sana’a Center at the Yemen Banks Association, seeking to address the country’s financial challenges (see ‘High-Level Banking Sector Meeting in Sana’a’). Also in Sana’a last month, the Saudi-led military coalition bombed the Presidential Office, located in a densely populated area with several schools nearby. The office was occupied by a full staff of civilian personnel at the time. At least six people were killed and 30 injured. A Senior Houthi official, in the building’s basement at the time of the strike, was unharmed (see ‘Coalition Bombs Presidential Office in Sana’a’). In an effort to head off the resurgence of cholera with the start of Yemen’s rainy season, the World Health Organization, the UN Children’s Fund and Yemen’s national health authorities launched a mass cholera vaccination campaign last month (see ‘Cholera Vaccination Campaign’). Also in May, high-level sources in both the Yemeni government and the Houthi leadership confirmed to the Sana’a Center that negotiations were underway for a large-scale prisoner exchange expected to take place at the end of Ramadan (see ‘Prisoner Exchange Slate for Eid’).
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, Houthis, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America
269. The Yemen Review – August 2018
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- In the last six days of August the Yemeni rial entered one of its steepest and most rapid declines in value since the conflict began, resulting in sudden price spikes for basic foodstuffs. Given Yemen’s overwhelming dependence on imports to feed the population, such changes in the rial’s value have direct implications for the country’s humanitarian crisis (see ‘The Yemeni Rial’s Rapid Decline and Food Prices Surge’). Both the internationally recognized Yemeni government in Aden and the Houthi authorities in Sana’a took actions through last month targeting unlicensed money exchange firms – that have proliferated since the conflict began in 2015 – in an effort to curb their destabilizing effect on the currency market (see ‘Attempts to Curb the Influence of Unlicensed Money Exchange Firms’). A Saudi-led military coalition airstrike hit a bus in the Dahyan market in Yemen’s Sa’ada governorate, killing 54 people, 44 of them children. The coalition initially defended the strike as a “legitimate military action.” However, following mounting international pressure – including from the US Department of Defense – the coalition admitted that the strike was unjustified and said it would hold accountable those found responsible (see ‘Coalition Bombs a Bus Full of Children’). A group of international experts, mandated by the UN to investigate human rights violations in Yemen, published its first report. The group reported that it found reasonable grounds to believe that the governments of Yemen, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, and Houthi and allied forces have all committed war crimes (see ‘Group of Experts Publishes Its First Report’). Throughout August, the UAE-backed Giants Brigades, supported by Saudi-led military coalition aircraft, made advances in al-Durayhimi district, Hudaydah governorate. The coalition’s bombing of al-Durayhimi killed dozens of civilians, including 22 children (see ‘Anti-Houthi Offensives in Hudaydah Governorate’). In Taiz, tensions between the UAE-backed Abu al-Abbas Brigades and Islah-affiliated units – both members of the coalition-backed forces fighting the Houthis – broke out in clashes. Dozens of civilians were reportedly killed. Meanwhile, suspected southern separatist gunmen attacked a military academy graduation ceremony in Aden, killing a cadet (see ‘Other Military and Security Developments’). The UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths told the UN Security Council (UNSC) he was planning to hold consultations with the main warring parties September 6 in Geneva, where they would discuss a framework for peace and confidence building measures (see ‘Special Envoy’s Plan for Consultations With Warring Parties in Geneva’). President Donald Trump signed National Defence Authorization Bill (NDAA) for 2019, which includes an amendment that requires certification that the coalition is taking efforts to avoid civilians casualties, is committed to ending the conflict, and is taking measures to alleviate the humanitarian emergency. In his signing statement, Trump said his powers as commander-in-chief override the amendment (see ‘Developments In the United States’). Also in August, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned that the education of 3.7 million children in Yemen’s north was at risk in the upcoming school year. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF and health authorities in Yemen launched the second of three phases of the first-ever oral cholera vaccination campaign in Yemen (see ‘Humanitarian Developments’).
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Food, Economy, Conflict, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America
270. The Yemen Review – September 2018
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- In September, the Yemeni rial’s recent decline accelerated precipitously, with the currency’s value dropping to record lows by month’s end. While the rial has been under multiple, intensifying pressures stemming from the war for several years, a large increase in the money supply – through a 30 percent increase in civil servant salaries – and the collapse of peace talks last month appear to have spurred a rial sell-off in the market (see ‘Domestic Currency Hits Record Low’). A nation-wide fuel shortage ensued. Retail fuel stations closed en masse and prices for available petrol on the black market jumped an average of 130 percent relative to August, and as much as 230 percent in some areas (see ‘Fuel Shortages and Prices Surges Across Yemen’). The UN-brokered consultations between the main warring parties – the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the armed Houthi movement – collapsed before they even began due to logistics issues in transporting the Houthi delegation to Geneva for the talks (see ‘Failure of the Geneva Consultations’). The Saudi-led military coalition-backed assault on the Houthi-held port city of Hudaydah – which the coalition had “paused” in July – reignited in earnest. The coalition claimed that a victory in Hudaydah was necessary to force the armed Houthi movement back to the negotiating table (see ‘Offensive on Hudaydah City Resumes’). In southern Yemen, public protests that began in Aden in August grew and spread to other governorates, with protesters calling for measures to stem the rial’s plunge and tame rocketing prices (see ‘Protests Spread in Southern Governorates’). In northern Yemen, pro-government forces began an assault on Maran, Sa’ada governorate, which holds symbolic and strategic importance as the ancestral town of the al-Houthi family (see ‘Yemeni Government Forces Advance in Sa’ada’). Meanwhile, in the United States, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the Saudi-led military coalition was taking measures to reduce harm to civilians in Yemen, as was mandated by Congress in August for continued US support for the coalition. A former State Department adviser subsequently told the Sana’a Center that “objectively, [Pompeo’s] conclusion is false”, (see ‘State Department Certifies Coalition Efforts to Reduce Civilian Casualties’). In Europe, Spain annulled an arms deal with Saudi Arabia, then backtracked, Germany approved new arms exports to coalition members, and the UN Human Rights Council extended the mandate of an experts group investigating human rights violations in Yemen. Also in September, the Sana’a Center organized the largest foreign press delegation visit to Mukalla, Hadramawt governorate, since al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was expelled from the city in 2016.
- Topic:
- Security, Economy, Conflict, Negotiation, Currency, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America