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7281. The U.S. Enlargement Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Michael M. May
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
The United States is often accused of lacking a global security strategy. The United States, so the accusation goes, makes foreign policy and security decisions on an ad-hoc basis, prompted by the demands of politics and pressure groups, and in alternating bursts of idealism and realpolitik. Since none of these factors can safely be dismissed, there has to be something to the accusation. In an unpredictable world, a certain respect for the ad hoc may even be a good thing: a global strategy, carried out without regard to circumstances, would confine the United States to a conceptual straitjacket, depriving it of needed flexibility.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States

7282. A Verification Regime for Warhead Control

Author:
Liu Suping
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
After a brief period of progress, the U.S.-Russian nuclear reduction process has reached a stalemate. This situation causes us to rethink the following issues: What is the motivation for the two nuclear superpowers to conduct nuclear reductions? How can the focus of the nuclear arms reduction process be changed from verification of reduction of delivery vehicles to verification of reduction of warheads and nuclear materials? What is the objective for future nuclear reductions? What kind of verification regime will be required for future nuclear reductions?
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

7283. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the American homeland that do not involve the threat of overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the US. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency. No pattern of actual attacks on US territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack will be in the future, what means of attack will be used, or how lethal new forms of attack will be if they are successful.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

7284. Managing the Global Nuclear Materials Threat: Policy Recommendations

Author:
Sam Nunn and Robert E. Ebel
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite the end of the Cold War, nuclear weapons continue to pose the most devastating security threat to Americans. Although the risk of a nuclear war destroying civilization has virtually disappeared, the risk that a single nuclear weapon might be used to destroy a major city has increased, particularly given the erosion of control over nuclear material with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nothing could be more central to international security than ensuring that the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons do not fall into the hands of terrorists or proliferant states. Effective controls over nuclear warheads and the nuclear materials needed to make them are essential to the future of the entire global effort to reduce nuclear arms and stem their spread. At the same time, ensuring protection of public health and the environment in the management of all nuclear materials—from nuclear weapons to nuclear wastes—remains a critical priority. Appropriate management of both safety and security worldwide will be essential to maintaining nuclear fission as an expandable option for supplying the world's greenhouse-constrained energy needs in the twenty-first century.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Soviet Union

7285. El TLCAN y la Inversióon Extranjera Directa: El Nuevo Escenario

Author:
Arturo Borja
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper looks at the changes that have taken place in North America in foreign direct investment (FDI) after NAFTA. The first part analyses the regime defined in the treaty. The main four principles of this regime are: "national treatment", the prohibition of performance requirements for investors, a more liberal norm for foreign ownership of firms, institutional procedures for the solution of disputes. The rule of origin is identified as the most important measure for non-North American investors. The second part offers an empirical evaluation of changes in FDI flows during the first five years of NAFTA. It compares that period with the five years previous to the implementation of the agreement. The findings show a significant increase in FDI going to Mexico, Canada and the United States. At the same time, there have been changes in the distribution of these flows within the region. More FDI is going now to the United States than to Mexico, and investments between Canada and the U.S. are growing at a higher rate than those between Mexico and the U.S. The paper also identifies different patterns between Mexico and Canada. The increases in Canadian investments suggests that Canadian multinationals are adapting their strategies to the new conditions created by NAFTA.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

7286. Drug Trafficking in US-Mexican Relations: The Politics of Simulation

Author:
Jorge Chabat
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This document presents the hypothesis that the Mexican and U.S. governments are trapped in their current anti-drug strategy. This strategy causes high levels of violence and corruption in Mexican territory, and cannot be changed because it responds to pressures exerted by American public opinion on its own government. One of the consequences is that the U.S. government is compelled annually to certify the Mexican government's fight against drugs. This certification constrains an accurate evaluation of Mexico's combat against narcotrafficking, because it tends to underestimate failures and exaggerate accomplishments. Nevertheless, the possibility of change in the anti-drug strategy is limited, so this scenario is expected to endure for several years. In this sense on can also expect a better integration f Mexican and U.S. anti-drug policies in the near and medium term.
Topic:
International Relations, Crime, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, America, North America, and Mexico

7287. Brazil, India and South Africa: Three Pathways to Regional (In)security

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the regional security problems of Brazil, India and South Africa in the Southern Cone of South America, South Asia, and southern Africa, respectively. The three states are treated as emerging powers, i.e., middle powers that have the capability and intention to maneuver their way into great power status. a study of the regional distributions of military and socioeconomic capability suggest Brazilian regional primacy, Indian regional dominance and South African regional supremacy. Furthermore, while Brazil's neighbors ignore its regional status, India's neighbors contest it and South Africa's neighbors acknowledge it. In the first three sections of the paper, the three regional powers studied in their respective regions, with emphasis on the geographical boundaries, historical evolution, cultural characteristics and power dynamics of each region. A comparative analysis of the nuclear option chosen by each emerging power is presented in the section immediately following the three case studies. The final section situates the regional security of the emerging powers in the context of U.S. grand strategy and analyzes security cooperation between Brazil, India, South Africa and the U.S. It is concluded that in their quest to transcend their regional bounds and have a global impact, the regional security context is a critical factor for the emerging powers.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, India, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

7288. Colombia Alert: U.S. Counternarcotics Policy Toward Colombia

Author:
Myles Frechette
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
More than 80 percent of the cocaine in the United States comes from Colombia. Substantial amounts of the heroin seized in the United States are also from Colombia. For the United States the impact of illegal drugs is devastating, not only in terms of human misery and lives lost, but also the billions it costs to combat this illegal trade; house the prison population of drug offenders; to provide health care to drug users; and sustain the loss of productivity in the economy. One estimate puts the dollar cost at $100 billion a year. This is a staggering amount, even in an $8 trillion economy. The cost to Colombia, however, is disproportionately higher. Consider the corruption and economic distortion $5 billion of illicit profits causes in Colombia, whose GDP is about $90 billion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

7289. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Hong Kong

7290. Emerging Threats on the Internet

Author:
Mariyam Joyce-Hasham
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Fears about extremist groups operating on the Internet are on the increase. This is paralleled by concern about the ways in which such groups can use Internet technology to disrupt or undermine familiar ways of life in stable societies. The Internet appeals particularly to groups that operate at substate level, most visibly the neo-Nazis and hate groups at the forefront of the resurgent white pride movement in America.
Topic:
Security and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America