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6441. Winning Plays: Essential Guidance from the Terrorism Line of Scrimmage

Author:
Peter S. Beering, Paul M. Maniscalco, Hank Christen, Steven B. Storment, and A.D. Vickery
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper provides recommendations for the “play book” used by policy makers and emergency preparedness practitioners in assembling the elements necessary to effectively plan for and respond to terrorist actions by developing critical relationships, building systems, and setting training and funding priorities. It is not intended to be a model plan but to offer practical guidance, based on our expertise, for planning effectively, spending wisely, and making our nation safer. This document is divided into sections by subject matter, with a brief overview for that particular section followed by a series of recommendations.
Topic:
Science and Technology and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

6442. The Bush National Security Strategy: An Evaluation

Author:
Ivo H. Daaldar
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
President Bush's first National Security Strategy presents his vision of “a distinctly American internationalism.” Media reports focused on the Strategy's support for preempting emerging threats militarily, but the 31-page document covers a far broader set of important issues. At its core, the Strategy calls for the United States to use its “unparalleled military strength and great economic and political influence” to establish “a balance of power that favors human freedom” and to defeat the threat posed by “terrorists and tyrants.” These are themes that will likely resonate with the American people, who believe that the United States should play a leading role in making the world a safer and better place.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

6443. Non-Cooperative Dynamics of Multi-Agent Teams

Author:
Robert L. Axtell
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Results on the formation of multi-agent teams are reviewed and extended. Conditions are specified under which it is individually rational for agents to spontaneously form coalitions in order to engage in collective action. In a cooperative setting the formation of such groups is to be expected. Here we show that in non-cooperative environments—presumably a more realistic context for a variety of both human and software agents—self-organized coalitions are capable of extracting welfare improvements. The Nash equilibria of these coalitional formation games are demonstrated to always exist and be unique. Certain free rider problems in such group formation dynamics lead to the possibility of dynamically unstable Nash equilibria, depending on the nature of intra-group compensation and coalition size. Yet coherent groups can still form, if only temporarily, as demonstrated by computational experiments. Such groups of agents can be either long-lived or transient. The macroscopic structure of these emergent 'bands' of agents is stationary in sufficiently large populations, despite constant adaptation at the agent level. It is argued that assumptions concerning attainment of agent-level (Nash) equilibrium, so ubiquitous in conventional economics and game theory, are difficult to justify behaviorally and highly restrictive theoretically, and are thus unlikely to serve either as fertile design objectives or robust operating principles for realistic multi-agent systems.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

6444. The Business of Congress After September 11: A Look Back and at What's Ahead for 2002

Author:
Sarah Binder and Bill Frenzel
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The terrorist attacks on September 11, which caused plane crashes in New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., resulted in thousands of deaths, billions of dollars in damage, and an American public that was stunned by the events it had watched unfold on television. In addition to the heavy emotional toll, federal, state, and local governments scrambled to address new policy problems, including massive clean-up efforts, compensation for victims, and homeland security.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, China, New York, America, Washington, and Pennsylvania

6445. Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Civil Violence: Guatemala 1977-1986

Author:
Timothy R. Gulden
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper examines detailed records from the civil conflict in Guatemala between 1977 and 1986. It reveals a number of novel patterns which support the use of complex systems methods for understanding civil violence. It finds a surprising, non-linear relationship between ethnic mix and killing; thereby inviting analysis based on group dynamics. It shows the temporal texture of the conflict to be far from smooth, with a power spectrum that closely resembles that of other, better understood, complex systems. The distribution of incident sizes within the data seems to fall into two distinct sets, one of which, corresponding to "regular" conflict, is Zipf distributed, the other of which includes acts of genocide and is distributed differently. This difference may indicate that that agents of the state were proceeding under different types of orders. These results provide an empirical benchmark for the modeling of civil violence and may have implications for conflict prevention, peace keeping, and the post-conflict analysis of command structures.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala

6446. Kashmir: Redefining the U.S. Role

Author:
Navnita Chadha Behera
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
India and Pakistan have fought three wars against each other since 1947, the first two of which were over Kashmir. In the past fifteen years, the two countries have been embroiled in four military crises, which the United States has played an increasingly assertive role in managing and resolving. A chief component of recent American administrations' foreign policy goals in South Asia, including the current Bush administration, has been to avert the fourth war in the subcontinent. However, attitudes in India and Pakistan are changing, and the internal situation in Kashmir is more fluid than it has been for years. After September 11, America has been able to maintain close ties to both countries. Washington should move beyond managing the crisis and help develop a road to peace in the region.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, Washington, India, and Kashmir

6447. Reducing Collateral Damage to Indo-Pakistani Relations from the War on Terrorism

Author:
Polly Nayak
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
One of the major challenges facing Washington is how to limit unintended consequences of the war on terrorism in South Asia that could otherwise imperil both the U.S. counterterrorism strategy and the goal of preventing further conflict between India and Pakistan. Senior U.S. officials understandably hoped last fall that the war on terrorism would provide a new opportunity to draw in both India and Pakistan, to strengthen U.S. ties to each, and to nudge them to resolve their differences. Washington expected to expand cooperation with a rising India on a host of issues, while succoring a fragile Pakistan as a reward for abandoning an Afghan policy inimical to the war on terrorism.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, Washington, and India

6448. Putin's Agenda, America's Choice: Russia's Search for Strategic Stability

Author:
Carol Graham
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In May, President George W. Bush travels to Moscow and St. Petersburg for his fourth summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the past year, Putin has made a number of compromises with America on key questions such as the United States' withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the presence of U.S. troops in Central Asia. As a result, American commentators have speculated about how many concessions Putin needs from the United States to placate his domestic critics and maintain the positive momentum of U.S.-Russia relations.
Topic:
Human Welfare, International Organization, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Central Asia, and Moscow

6449. Limiting the Growth of the U.S. Defense Budget

Author:
Michael E O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In proposing a $48 billion defense budget increase for 2003 following a large increase in 2002, President George W. Bush has followed in the budgetary footsteps of former President Ronald Reagan and Reagan's defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger. Adjusted for inflation, Bush's 2003 defense budget would be $50 billion higher than the 2001 budget. By 2007, the real dollar defense budget would go up $30 billion more, approaching the peak levels of the Reagan years.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

6450. A New Agenda for Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Ivo H Daalder and James M Lindsay
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
George W. Bush promised on the campaign trail “to leave the cold war behind” and “rethink the requirements for nuclear deterrence.” Last November, he unveiled an arms reduction proposal that purports to do just that. It would have the United States reduce its strategic nuclear arsenal over the next ten years from its current level of 7,200 warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads. Equally important, the United States would achieve that goal not by negotiating a new Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) agreement, but through unilateral action.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States