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6431. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries

Author:
Roberto Perotti
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on GDP, prices and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows:1 ) The estimated effects of fiscal policy on GDP tend to be small: positive government spending multipliers larger than 1 tend to be the exception; 2) The effects of fiscal policy on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; 3) Under plausible values of the price elasticity, government spending has positive effects on the price level, although usually small; 4) Government spending shocks have significant effects on the nominal and real short interest rate, but of varying signs; 5) In the post-1980 period, net tax shocks have positive short run effects on the nominal interest rate, and typically negative or zero effects on prices; 6) The US is an outlier in many dimensions; responses to fiscal shocks estimated on US data are often not representative of the average OECD country included in this sample.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6432. Outsourcing and Inequality

Author:
Paul Brenton, Bob Anderton, and Eva Oscarsson
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper brings together and analyses the results of empirical analyses which, in contrast to most other studies, find that trade has been a significant cause of labour market inequality in various industrialised countries. The approach is based upon the concept of outsourcing – whereby the low-skill parts of the production chain are 'outsourced' to low-wage countries. A distinguishing feature of the empirical work is the use of highly detailed trade data, which allow imports from high- and low-wage countries to be separately identified at the industry level. Using cost minimisation framework, we show that imports from low-wage countries have made a significant contribution to the decline in the wage-bill share and/or relative employment of less-skilled workers in the UK, the USA, Sweden and Italy. We also show how the country-specific characteristics of outsourcing can lead to quite different inequality outcomes in different countries. In line with other studies, we also find that technology has played an important role in causing the increase in inequality in many countries. However, there is also some evidence that some of the rapid increase in the application of new technologies in recent decades has been trade-induced through mechanisms such as 'defensive innovation'.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

6433. War with Iraq?

Author:
Peter Van Ness, Hugh White, Stuart Harris, Amin Saikal, and Peter C. Gration
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
What curious path has brought us to this point? Just over a year ago, terrorists from the amorphous transnational Al Qaeda network killed thousands of Americans and other nationals by flying planes into New York's World Trade Center, the Pentagon in Washington, and a field in Pennsylvania. Today, the United States is preparing to launch a war against the state of Iraq, emphasising the grave and imminent danger posed by Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, but animated also by a long-standing goal of 'regime change'. What explains this 'statising' of the so-called 'war against terrorism'? What risks does it pose for regional and world order?
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

6434. Cyber Attacks: Protecting America's Security Against Digital Threats

Author:
Michael Vatis
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The events of September 11, 2001, underscored the vulnerability to foreign attack of the territory of the United States itself, in a way not seen since Pearl Harbor. Since that day, the federal government, the media, and the public have been intensely focused on taking measures to protect us from similar attacks — or from even more devastating attacks involving weapons of mass destruction (WMD), such as nuclear, biological, chemical, or radiological weapons.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

6435. Recommendations for Democratization Assistance in the Caspian Region

Author:
Vladimir Shkolnikov
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper discusses Western democratization assistance programs to Caspian states over the last ten years and the lessons policy makers should learn from these programs. It makes the following points: The euphoria of the early 1990s over the end of the Cold War caused Western organizations to have unrealistic expectations for democratic development in the former Soviet Union. Western democracy assistance programs have often failed to take the perspective of “the ordinary person on the street” in recipient countries into consideration. Instead, these programs usually reflect external, Western-imposed priorities. Western democracy-promoting organizations have often failed to appreciate the extent to which traditional institutions in Caspian societies (such as kinship networks) managed to survive the Soviet period and still influence the societies of the region. Western democracy-promoting organizations have failed to take into consideration the security challenges that Caspian states have had to confront during their first decade of independence. The war against global terrorism gives the West an opportunity to reevaluate its policies towards the Caspian region. Rather than relying solely on experiences of North American and Western European democracies, Western democracy-promoting organizations need to draw upon the recent experiences of new democracies of Central Europe in creating new models for the Caspian region.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Central Asia, Asia, Soviet Union, and North America

6436. Russia's Role in the Shifting World Oil Market

Author:
Lynne Kiesling and Joseph Becker
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Recent changes in Russia's domestic oil industry have had dramatic effects on world oil markets, including Russia's emergence as the number two exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia. These effects are occurring even though Russia is not close to fully exploiting its reserves. Russia's oil industry has large growth prospects, and this potential will allow Moscow to take a greater market share away from OPEC in the future. A number of factors will facilitate this trend. Russia's target oil price is lower than OPEC's, which gives it an incentive to continue exporting beyond OPEC's wishes. Also, Russia's oil industry is more privatized than the oil industries in Persian Gulf states, which allows it to be more entrepreneurial in attracting investment and joint ventures.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Moscow, and Kabardino

6437. Emergency Communications: The Quest for Interoperability in the United States and Europe

Author:
Viktor Mayer-Schönberger
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Late in the morning of April 20, 1999, Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold, two sixteen-year-old students, entered Columbine High School and started a shooting spree that would leave fifteen people dead, including Harris and Klebold, and dozens of others wounded.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

6438. Russia Watch No.7, March 2002

Author:
Duncan DeVille, Danielle Lussier, Melissa Carr, David Rekhviashvili, Annaliis Abrego, and John Grennan
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Russian support for U.S. efforts in the war on terrorism has surprised many Western observers. But this was not the only recent surprise from Moscow — Western advocates for the rule of law in Russia also had much to celebrate in the closing months of 2001. Under strong prodding by President Vladimir Putin, the Duma passed several impressive pieces of reform legislation, including an entirely new Criminal Procedure Code, a potentially revolutionary land reform law, new shareholder protections in amendments to the Joint Stock Company Law, and the first post-Soviet Labor Code.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

6439. Beyond the ABM Treaty: A Plea For a Limited National Missile Defense System

Author:
Tom Sauer
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
With approval rates higher than ever thanks to the war against terrorism, President George W. Bush finally did in December 2001 what he had threatened to do on different occasions but what many others thought - or hoped - was only bluff: withdrawing unilaterally from the 1972 Anti- Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Regardless of the rationale or emotions behind or against this decision, it ended a period of uncertainty. Although in principle the Bush administration can still change its mind until June 2002 when the six months withdrawal period expires, most observers believe that this will not happen. Indeed, there are already plans on the table to start building a new test site at Fort Greely in Alaska in the Summer of 2002 that from 2004 onwards could be used as a base for a small ground-based mid-course National Missile Defense (NMD) launch site if needed.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Alaska

6440. Consequence Management in the 1995 Sarin Attacks on the Japanese Subway System

Author:
Robyn Pangi
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In the early to mid 1990s, a group known as Aum Shinrikyo amassed, and used against innocent civilians, an arsenal of chemical and biological weapons. A large body of literature details the evolution of Aum Shinrikyo, its shocking attacks on a housing complex in Matsumoto and on five subway lines in Tokyo using a chemical weapon, and Japanese society's reaction to the attacks. Not much analysis, however, has been done on the lessons learned about consequence management from the first significant terrorist attacks with weapons of mass destruction to occur in modern times. Recent events in the United States including the dispersal of anthrax spores through the mail and scores of hoaxes alleging use of anthrax have brought the issue of terrorism using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) closer to home. The handling of the Aum Shinrikyo attacks offers the opportunity for policymakers, emergency response personnel, and other relevant professionals to learn about WMD consequence management.
Topic:
National Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, Tokyo, and Matsumoto