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6282. Egypt as a Failing State: Implications for US National Security
- Author:
- Ruth M. Beitler and Cindy R. Jebb
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- Short-term solutions to more profound, long-term problems are not sufficient to safeguard United States interests in the Middle East. This paper challenges the current United States policy towards Egypt and its underlying assumption that regime stability supercedes a US interest in true political development. The key question in this paper queries why the status quo policy towards Egypt is no longer fulfilling US objectives when it has been a successful pillar for US Middle East policy in the past. One can easily understand the seductive nature of adhering to the status quo policy by recalling Anwar Sadat's initiatives moving Egypt squarely from the Soviet camp to the American one, the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, and Egypt's support during the Gulf War in 1991. The United States must take bold new steps towards its relationship with Egypt and leverage Egypt's historical regional leadership to better support US interests for the future.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Soviet Union, Arabia, and Egypt
6283. Regional Output Differences in International Perspective
- Author:
- Alan Heston and Bettina Aten
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Accurate regional estimates of output are desired as an indicator of level of development and as a variable used to explain internal migration, demand patterns, fertility and other aspects of behaviour. This chapter explores one often neglected aspect of regional income differences, namely that due to price differences or regional purchasing power parities. When nominal regional income measures are adjusted for these price level differences they are termed real regional incomes. The preferred method of estimating regional purchasing power parities by detailed price comparisons is discussed for Brazil, the United States and the European Union. The empirical thrust of the chapter is an investigation of different methods for estimating regional real incomes based on PPP data for 167 countries and nominal regional incomes and other data for about 870 administrative areas at the subnational level. Even in their present form we believe the real income estimates provided for the geographical units present opportunities for understanding the world economic structure.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Brazil
6284. Irregular Migration and Asylum Seekers in the Caribbean
- Author:
- Elizabeth Thomas-Hope
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Irregular migration is increasing in the Caribbean while the opportunities for applying for asylum hardly exist. The policy regarding most Caribbean irregular migrants is based on the view of the potential destinations, namely that the migrants are economic rather than political refugees. Whatever the specific cause of a migrant's departure, the movement is rooted in a complex amalgam of political, socioeconomic and (increasingly) environmental, factors. Thus irregular movements are part of the wider Caribbean migration process. The irregular movements differ from other forms of migration in that they represent the informal sector of migration, providing an alternative to those sectors of national populations that for political or economic reasons fall outside the immigration categories for entry to the United States. Locations in the Caribbean largely provide the intended transit stops to the United States, but with the implementation of policies to interdict migrants at sea, many of these intermediary locations become final destinations and, ultimately, marginalized communities of the migrants themselves and successive generations. These centres are the nodal points of an established transnational network that sustains the ongoing process of irregular migration. The economic and emotional cost and risks faced by the migrants are high, and the economic and political cost and challenges faced by host governments are also high. Irregular migration and the issue of asylum poignantly reflect various aspects of poverty and the vast economic disparities that exist within the region. Further, irregular migration and the question of asylum greatly affect diplomatic relations between Caribbean countries of migration source and destination. Better and more thoughtful policies are needed to address the continuing issues relating to irregular migration.
- Topic:
- Development and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central America, and Caribbean
6285. Developed Country Trade Barriers and the Least Developed Countries: The Economic Results of Freeing Trade
- Author:
- Jon D. Haveman and Howard J. Shatz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The Doha Ministerial Declaration emphasized that priority should be given to improving market access for products originating in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). In this paper, we analyze the importance of this proposition with respect to market access in the Triad economies. We first present a brief history of non-reciprocal preferences granted by the Triad. This covers Generalized System of Preference (GSP) programmes in each, and further preferences granted to African, Caribbean and Pacific countries by the EU and preferences granted to Caribbean Basin, Andean, and African countries by the US. This history is followed by an assessment of trade generated by these preferences in the year 2000, and of the extent to which LDC exports might be expected to increase should the preferences be made comprehensive. Preferences in 2000 are shown to have led to an increase of US$3.5 billion in LDC exports, while a complete duty-free treatment could expand LDC exports by as much as US$7.6 billion, 90 per cent of which will be absorbed by the US. As this represents a doubling of LDC exports to these countries, we interpret these results as an endorsement of this priority in the Doha Round of negotiations.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Caribbean
6286. Economic Integration and Migration: The Mexico-US Case
- Author:
- Philip Martin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper explains the evolution and effects of Mexico-US migration, and highlights the NAFTA approach to economic integration, viz., free up trade and investment while stepping up efforts to prevent unauthorized migration. The European Union approach is different: provide aid first, and later free up trade and migration in the expectation that moves toward convergence will ensure minimal migration because trade has become a substitute for migration. The paper concludes that NAFTA will reduce unwanted Mexico-US migration in the medium to long term, and that different initial conditions in Europe mean that there will be relatively little east-west migration when nationals of new entrant EU members achieve freedom of movement.
- Topic:
- Economics and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Mexico
6287. Trends in Asylum Migration to Industrialized Countries: 1990-2001
- Author:
- Stephen Castles and Sean Loughna
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to outline trends and patterns in movements of asylumseekers to Western so-called industrialized countries from 1990-2001. The paper begins by characterizing three distinct phases of asylum migration since the end of the Second World War. It then provides background material on global refugee and asylum movements, using statistics from UNHCR. The data for selected receiving countries and regions is discussed, followed by some remarks on changing routes used by asylumseekers. The selected countries and regions are Australia, Canada, the EU and the USA. Finally, we examine some of the causal factors behind asylum migration and attempt to identify their significance upon flows migration.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Human Welfare, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, and Australia
6288. Chechnya Weekly: New Questions Arise Over Hostage Rescue Mission
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Did the U.S. and Russian governments both know that, when Russian commandos stormed Moscow's Dubrovka theater in October of 2002, the Chechen terrorists inside it had already agreed to release several of their hostages, including U.S. citizen Sandy Booker? Booker's fiance, Svetlana Gubareva, says that the answer is Yes. Booker and Gubareva's 13-year-old daughter, Sasha, both died in the tragedy; Gubareva was also taken hostage but survived.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Moscow
6289. Chechnya Weekly: Shattering the al Qaeda–Chechen Myth
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell and Brian Glyn Williams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In 1999, U.S. presidential candidate George Bush spoke for much of the American right when he warned the Russians that they “need to resolve the dispute (with the Chechens) peaceably and not be bombing women and children and causing huge num bers of refugees to flee Chechnya.”[1] If the Russians did not stop their brutal second war against the Chechens, which had begun in the fall of 1999, Bush threatened to cut off IMF and Export-Import Bank loans to the former superpower that the Republican right, led by Senator Jesse Helms, still saw as a dangerous manifestation of the USSR.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Asia, and Chechnya
6290. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Leveling Accusations at US Officials?
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In a remarkably under reported statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently accused lower echelon U.S. government officials of meeting with known Chechen terrorists. On September 20, a few days before flying to the United States for his summit meeting with President George W. Bush, Putin met with several U.S. television journalists. Asked about Chechnya, the Russian president gave a long answer that mostly repeated points that he and his spokesmen have made before. But toward the end of his response he said the following (as translated by Chechnya Weekly from the text placed on the official website Kremlin.ru): “The United States has now voted in the Security Council in favor of recognizing several individuals as international terrorists. The State Department has announced that it has included several figures in its list of international terrorists. But unfortunately we know that on the executive level there are continuing attempts at contacts with some people under the pretense that what's happening is only work with the opposition. Even with people who are included on the United Nations list. These people come, say that they are 'political activists' and present them- selves in all sorts of guises. But I assure you, I know about this precisely—they are maintaining connections with their allies in Afghanistan, including those who have gone there from the Northern Caucasus of Russia and who are fighting with arms in their hands against American soldiers. Such absurdities on the working level must be stopped, the sooner the better.”
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and North Caucasus