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172. Military Strategy in War and Peace: Introduction
- Author:
- David J. Bercuson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- In July of 2010 a small group of historians from the University of Calgary, the United States, and the German Armed Forces gathered for a workshop at the University of Calgary. For a day and a half the participants struggled with the question “what is the impact of strategy on battlefield outcomes?” in a wide variety of historical circumstances from ancient Greece to the 21st Century.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Greece
173. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq
- Author:
- Radha Iyengar, Luke N. Condra, Joseph Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- A central question in intrastate conflicts is how insurgents are able to mobilize supporters to participate in violent and risky activities. A common explanation is that violence committed by counterinsurgent forces mobilizes certain segments of the population through a range of mechanisms. We study the effects of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan to quantify the effect of such casualties on subsequent insurgent violence. By comparing uniquely detailed micro-data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we can distinguish short-run 'information' and 'capacity' effects from the longer run 'propaganda' and 'revenge' effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what we term the 'revenge' effect. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 1 additional violent incident in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks and lead to increased violence over the next 6 months. There is no evidence that out-of-area events—errant air strikes for example—lead to increased violence, nor is there evidence of short run effects, thus ruling out the propaganda, information, and capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting the constraints on insurgent production of violence may be quite conflict-specific. Our results imply that minimizing harm to civilians may indeed help counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan to reduce insurgent recruitment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East
174. The Constitutional History of U.S. Foreign Policy: 222 Years of Tension in the Twilight Zone
- Author:
- Walter A. McDougall
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- In 1973, Congress passed the infamous War Powers Resolution (WPR), over Richard Nixon’s veto. It was perhaps the most ambitious Congressional effort to bridle the President since the battle with Andrew Johnson over Reconstruction. The WPR is worth reading—once—then forgetting, because its convoluted, contradictory, and doubtless unconstitutional mix of instructions, restrictions, and ticking clocks has never been honored by any administration or upheld by any court. Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush all dispatched U.S. forces into combat situations without paying more than lip service to the WPR. In 1990, following Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, President Bush stationed 100,000 personnel in Saudi Arabia. He sought no authorization and, in fact, informed just one member of Congress: Senator Sam Nunn (D., Ga.). When he then prepared Operation Desert Storm to liberate Kuwait, 54 Congressmen led by the chairman of House Armed Services Committee, Berkeley radical Ron Dellums (D., Calif.), filed for an injunction to stop the war. U.S. District Judge Harold H. Greene ran for cover. Noting that 54 fell far short of a majority, he judged the case “not ripe for judicial determination.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Governance, Law, and Constitution
- Political Geography:
- United States
175. Afghanistan: New U.S. Administration, New Directions
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Seven years after the U.S.-led intervention in Afghanistan the country is still at war against extremists and has developed few resilient institutions. A policy review by the Obama administration has reopened debate about how to defeat the forces of violent global jihadism – al-Qaeda and its Taliban protectors – in Afghanistan and in neighbouring Pakistan. In most cases, the ideas on offer – from declaring victory and pulling out, to negotiating with the insurgents, to organising regional conferences, to prioritising relationships with favoured individuals and allies over the development of strong democratic institutions – have been tried at least once in the past two decades, with no success: we know now what not to do.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
176. Third Generation Civil-Military Relations and the 'New Revolution in Military Affairs'
- Author:
- Frederik Rosén
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This paper identifies a new development in civil-military relations, which I suggest calling third-generation civil-military relations. Third-generation civil-military relations are the product of military organisations embarking on civil governance roles and the creation of deep partnerships between military and civil agencies. They appear to be less dramatic than 'traditional' civil-military relations (Blue Helmets, Provincial Reconstructions Teams) in that they do not create the same visible alignment on the ground between military and non-military identities. Yet they do represent a momentous development for the US military's engagement in Afghanistan in particular, as well as challenging our understanding of the role of the military in global security, thus adding a new complexity to international security cooperation. This complexity concerns differing opinions with regard to what kinds of tasks the military should do and what it should not. It is about norms and principles rather than about violent consequences for civilians. There are many tasks for which most military organisations are unsuitable, because they lack the necessary expertise and institutional capability. But these are practical matters rather than being about the normative 'should' questions: Should the military train civil police? Should the military work on civil reform areas in the Afghan Ministry of Interior? Should the military engage in civil justice-sector reform? The common reply to such questions is – or has been – no. Yet developments on the ground point precisely towards such an expansion of military affairs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
177. Securing Afghanistan
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones and C. Christine Fair
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- More than seven years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, important gains made in bringing stability and democracy to Afghanistan are imperiled. While there have been some positive developments in such areas as economic growth, the Taliban and other insurgent groups have gained some ground in the country and in neighboring Pakistan, the drug trade remains a significant problem, and corruption has worsened in the Afghan government. According to United Nations data, insurgent incidents have increased every year since the 2001 overthrow of the Taliban regime. The situation in parts of Afghanistan's south and east is particularly concerning because of the twin menace of insurgent and criminal activity. Despite these challenges, the insurgency remains deeply fractured among a range of groups, and most have little support among the Afghan population. This presents an opportunity for Afghans and the international community to turn the situation around.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Development, Economics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
178. Iraq, its Neighbors, and the Obama Administration: Syrian and Saudi Perspectives
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The top concern for both Riyadh and Damascus remains blowback from Iraq: the ascendance of ethnic and sectarian identity and the spread of Islamist militancy. The need to contain this threat is the dominant force that shapes their relations with Iraq. Both Syria and Saudi Arabia have a vital interest in ensuring that Iraq's emerging political order is inclusive of Sunni Arab Iraqis, who have not yet been fully incorporated into Iraqi institutions. Syria and Saudi Arabia do not look at Iraq in isolation, nor do they assign it top priority among their foreign policy concerns. For them, Iraq is merely one element in a comprehensive view encompassing other regional players (including the U.S. and Iran) and other regional crises, particularly the Arab-Israeli conflict. Lingering resentment and bitterness toward Washington is now mixed with intense curiosity and modest optimism about President Barack Obama. Saudis still bristle when recalling how the Bush Administration sidelined Riyadh on Iraqi matters; as do Syrians, who believe the previous administration was intent on isolating and undermining Damascus. Iraq remains very much isolated in its neighborhood. Recent Progress on regional cooperation notwithstanding, these two neighbors are still focused more on containment than engagement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
179. Resolving the Crisis over Constitutional Interpretation in Afghanistan
- Author:
- J Alexander Thier and John Dempsey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The current political crisis over elections in Afghanistan stems, in part, from a fundamental gap in Afghanistan's legal and political system: lack of agreement on what entity(s) has the power to resolve constitutional disputes, and how that power is accessed. Without a clear path to settling constitutional disagreements, the system becomes deadlocked as disputes arise, exacerbating tensions between Afghanistan's fragile institutions and factionalized political elite.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
180. Democracy Promotion Under Obama: Finding a Way Forward
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Bush's administration's highly problematic legacy on democracy promotion and general pessimism about the global state of democracy create pressure on the Obama administration to pull the United States substantially back from supporting democracy abroad. Although dissociating U.S. democracy support from the errors of the Bush approach is crucial, a broad realist corrective of U.S. policy is not necessary. The way forward for Obama will be more about changing how the United States goes about supporting democracy abroad than about what emphasis to place on democracy relative to other interests. Cardinal values of Obama's political philosophy and style—non-confrontational, measured, persistent, bipartisan, cooperative, effective, and empowering—provide a natural basis for a new framework to help the United States regain its place as a respected, trusted, and influential ally of democracy around the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States