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441. Saudi Arabia, Stability, and International Islamic Terror

Author:
Mordechai Abir
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Persian Gulf is a region of outstanding anomalies and immense energy wealth. About two-thirds of the world's proven energy reserves are located in the Gulf States, foremost in Saudi Arabia (25 percent). As long as the rest of the world requires this energy, its dependence on this region will continue. Yet, the evolving U.S. war against terrorism, coupled with the growth of non-OPEC oil output led by the revived energy industry in Russia and other former Soviet republics, is beginning to erode the coercive power of the Gulf states.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

442. The Growing Peace Research Agenda

Author:
Daniel A. Lindley
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
The attacks of September 11 were tragic. However, we are lucky to be fighting this war against terrorism today, rather than in ten to twenty years' time. Bin Laden and other terrorists are seeking biological and nuclear weapons that could kill millions of people. The technological skills and resources needed to make weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are diffusing and becoming easier to obtain over time. Now that we know that some terrorists will stop at nothing, it is imperative to stop terrorists and stop proliferation of biological and nuclear weapons before things get even worse. With a nuclear weapon, bin Laden would have destroyed all of lower Manhattan.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

443. Middle East/Afghanistan — Al-Qaida Threat

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Intelligence assessments suggest that the bomb attack on French naval engineers in Karachi on May 8 bore the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation. There is evidence to suggest that Osama bin Laden and other senior leaders are alive and regrouping, despite significant losses. The campaign against al-Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere is entering a new phase.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

444. Human Rights Defenders on the Frontlines of Freedom: Protecting Human Rights in the Context of the War on Terror

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center's decision to bring together human rights and pro-democracy activists from all regions of the world was based on the idea that it would be valuable to generate a picture of the state of global democracy and human rights movements. The late U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Sergio Vieira de Mello agreed that in order to determine how the United Nations could support democratization and improvement in human rights conditions at the national level, he wanted to hear the views of those who are close to the action, those who work on the “frontlines of freedom.” Though situations differ according to local circumstances, it is important to watch for trends and assess progress as well as challenges that lie ahead. In the pages that follow are a selection of the pressing concerns of some of the world's most dedicated individuals who are truly betting their lives on the idea that universal freedom can be built law by law, case by case, community by community.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States and United Nations

445. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses

Author:
Bruce D. Jones
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
As we enter 2003, the Israeli-Palestinian context is defined by a series of inter- related phenomena: a continuing loss of Israeli and Palestinian lives; political turbulence (and some convergence) in Israel; progress, after much debate, on the question of reform and Chairman Arafat's leadership; a factional struggle for dominance of Palestinian popular politics; devastation of the Palestinian economy, and a lesser but still damaging corrosion of the Israeli economy; and public attitudes on both sides defined by the concept of “tactical hawks, strategic doves”—but with trends showing a worrying erosion of support for peaceful solutions. The international context is defined by growing consensus on substantive issues among international, Arab, and some U.S. officials; some remaining tactical and presentational differences within this group; a rise of anti-Semitic and anti-Arab attitudes; and uncertainty about the consequences of regime change in Iraq. The combination—alongside President Bush's decision to publish the Road Map following the confirmation of the new Palestinian Cabinet—potentially represents a turning point.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

446. The Defense Monitor: Victory At An Unknown Cost

Author:
Stephen H. Baker
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Throughout the spring, summer and fall of this year thousands of U.S. military planners have worked on the various contingencies and strategies concerning a possible invasion of Iraq.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

447. The Defense Monitor: Exploring the Axis of Evil — Introduction

Author:
Dan Smith
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
IN HIS JAN. 29, 2002 State of the Union Address to Congress and the American public, U.S. President George W. Bush described a tripartite “axis of evil” threatening the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

448. The Defense Monitor: Gens. McCaffrey and Wilhelm Visit Cuba with CDI Group

Author:
Glenn Baker
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
A Cdi Delegation Traveled to Cuba Feb. 27-March 3 and met top Cuban officials, including Fidel Castro, to explore the possibility of closer cooperation between the United States and Cuba in the fight against drugs and terrorism. CDI President Bruce Blair led a group that included Gen. (Ret.) Barry McCaffrey, Gen. (Ret.) Charles Wilhelm, and members of the CDI board and staff. McCaffrey was “drug czar” under President Clinton; Wilhelm was commander in chief of Southern Command from 1997-2000, and now serves as a Distinguished Military Fellow with CDI. He also went to Cuba with a CDI delegation in February 2001.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

449. Proliferation in the "Axis of Evil": North Korea, Iran, and Iraq

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Despite the June 2000 summit meeting and meetings between high level U.S. and North Korean officials on the one hand, and economic turmoil and continued food shortages on the other, we believe North Korea remains committed to maintaining strong military forces. These forces continue to be deployed close to the border with South Korea in an offensively oriented posture, and North Korea's NBC and missile programs likely remain key components of its overall security strategy. The most likely large- scale regional war scenario over the near term, which would involve the United States, would be on the Korean peninsula. In recent years, North Korea has continued to pose a complex security challenge to the United States and its allies. Prior to the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea is believed to have produced and diverted sufficient plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons. In addition, although North Korea froze the production of plutonium in 1994, there are concerns that North Korea is continuing with some elements of a nuclear weapons program. North Korea also possesses stockpiles of chemical weapons, which could be used in the event of renewed hostilities on the peninsula. Research and development into biological agents and toxins suggest North Korea may have a biological weapons capability. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles available for use against targets on the peninsula, some of which are capable of reaching tar-gets in Japan. Its missile capabilities are increasing at a steady pace, and it has progressed to producing medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). North Korea also has continued development of even longer-range missiles that would be able to threaten areas well beyond the region, including portions of the continental United States. As a result of U.S. diplomatic efforts, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has maintained a moratorium on launches of long-range missiles for over one year.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Korea

450. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
From a public policy viewpoint, these uncertainties mean the US must prepare for a wide variety of low probability attacks on the US, rather than to emphasize any given form of attack or group of attackers. The US must plan its Homeland defense policies and programs for a future in which there is no way to predict the weapon that will be used or the method chosen to deliver a weapon which can range from a small suicide attack by an American citizen to the covert delivery of a nuclear weapon by a foreign state. There is no reason the US should assume that some convenient Gaussian curve or standard deviation, will make small or medium level attacks a higher priority over time than more lethal forms.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America