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1271. Proceedings: START II, Missile Non-Proliferation, and Missile Defense

Author:
Alexander Pikayev, Alexei Arbatov, Richard Speier, Rodney W. Jones, John Pike, Michael Nacht, Linton Brooks, Stephen Cambone, Seth Carus, Robert Einhorn, Ronald Lehman II, McCarthy Tim, Yuri Nazarkin, Keith Payne, Henry Sokolski, and Mikhail Streltsov
Publication Date:
02-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The first panel focused on the U.S. and Russian stakes in strategic arms control, the prospects for START II ratification in Russia, the status of START III issues, and the possibilities for cooperative approaches to the issues of strategic offense-defense interaction. The Russian panelists, Ambassadors Yuri Nazarkin and Mikhail Streltsov, and State Duma member Alexei Arbatov, explained Russia's START II reservations, steps in the ratification process, and expected implementation problems in eliminating Russia's multiple warhead (MIRVed) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). On balance, they agreed that START II serves Russia's basic interests, in lower levels of strategic arms, eventual economic savings, and political and military parity with the United States. They acknowledged that the ball is now in Russia's court, and ventured that parliament's approval probably would occur eventually.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

1272. Thinking Regionally: Priorities for U.S. Policy Toward Africa

Author:
Salih Booker
Publication Date:
03-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Recent Congressional action to significantly cut aid to Africa is only one sign among many of a trend to reduce U.S. involvement on the continent. How much further Africa is marginalized in the U.S. will ultimately depend on the ability of Africa's multiple constituencies to reverse this trend. Nevertheless, events on the continent are likely to compel a greater commitment of resources than U.S. policymakers currently contemplate. And engagement at any level needs to be based on clear identification of U.S. interests in Africa and well-defined criteria for establishing priorities.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

1273. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia

Author:
Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

1274. Expanding NATO: Will it Weaken the Alliance?

Author:
Michael E. Mandelbaum and Richard C. Holbrooke
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Good evening. Welcome to the second or the third of our Great Debates, it depends on how you're counting. The first formal one was about six weeks ago when Madeleine Albright, our new Secretary of State designate, and Jeane Kirkpatrick debated about the United Nations. Before that we had a trial run with Bob Ellsworth, one of Senator Dole's closest friends and advisors, and Tom Donilon, the chief of staff of the State Department.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1275. Clausewitzian Friction and Future War

Author:
Barry D. Watts
Publication Date:
10-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Soviet Union, and Southeast Asia

1276. Mobilizing U.S. Industry in World War II: Myth and Reality

Author:
Alan L. Gropman
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
At a dinner during the Teheran Conference in December 1943, Joseph Stalin praised United States manufacturing: I want to tell you from the Russian point of view, what the President and the United States have done to win the war. The most important things in this war are machines. The United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to 10,000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most. 3,000 airplanes a month .... The United States, therefore, is a country of machines. Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease, we would lose this war.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States and Vietnam

1277. Caribbean Basin Economic Development and the Section 936 Tax Credit

Author:
Richard L. Bernal and Stephen E. Lamar
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In 1986, as part of a major overhaul of the U.S. tax code, the U.S. Congress made a valuable source of private sector financing available for Caribbean economic development. Less than 10 years later, as part of a series of measures to balance the U.S. federal budget and enact a package of tax cuts for small businesses, the Congress approved legislation to terminate this source of funds for the Caribbean.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Caribbean

1278. Is Pandora's Box Half-Empty or Half-Full? The Limited Virulence of Secessionism and the Domestic Sources of Disintegration

Author:
Stephen M. Saideman
Publication Date:
11-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Is secession contagious? If so, can it be contained or quarantined to limit its spread? These two questions must be addressed to understand the challenges posed by ethnic divisions within and between states today. The end of ideological competition between the United States and the Soviet Union has not ushered in an era of global peace, but instead a period characterized by ethnic conflicts within many states. The coincidence of the disintegrations of the Soviet, Yugoslav, and Czechoslovak federations suggests that secession does spread with potentially nasty consequences.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

1279. Numbering British Contention, 1758-1834

Author:
Thomas Chronopoulos
Publication Date:
12-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:
In the period between 1758 and 1834 repertoires of contention in Britain changed from parochial, particular, and bifurcated to cosmopolitan, modular, and autonomous. In other words, eighteenth century actions "that included a good deal of ceremonial, street theater, deployment of strong visual symbols, and destruction of symbolically charged objects" through the course of time lost their relative predominance and instead "demonstrations, strikes, rallies, public meetings, and similar forms of public interaction came to prevail during the nineteenth century." These new routines for the eighteenth century contentious events are the ones that ordinary people in the United States and Western Europe still to this date principally employ to make claims. This conclusion merges from a systematic study of more than 8,000 contentious gatherings, in Southern England (1758-1820) and Great Britain as a whole (1828-1834).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and England

1280. Not Even One: A Report On The Crisis of Children and Firearms

Publication Date:
02-1994
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Not even one child's death from firearms is acceptable or inevitable. What will we do about it? We gathered at The Carter Center, 26 people from various fields and disciplines, all concerned with protecting and lengthening the lives of children, to seek a path forward amid the carnage of our children caused by firearms. What could be done to stem the hemorrhage in the streets? Could we do enough to make a difference? Could we do anything at all? Author Norman Cousins has said that the greatest t the United States has given the world is to demonstrate that it is possible to plan a rational future. It is easy to lose hope when faced with a situation as horrible as thousands of children dying from firearms. Yet even here, we affirm that it is possible to plan a rational future. Our gathering was framed around a modest focus on: 1. Children, not all people; 2. Firearms, not all violence; 3. Initiatives that could make an urgent and significant impact in the next five to 10 years; 4. Things we could work on immediately.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States