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1091. Middle East — Bin Laden Prognosis

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the prospects for the al-Qaida group and Osama bin Laden's wider terrorist network following the fall of the Taliban and the loss of many of its facilities in Afghanistan. Key elements of bin Laden's network have been seriously damaged. Some operational cells are likely to survive but most are likely to remain inactive for the foreseeable future in order to avoid detection. Al-Qaida is likely to remain active but less effective than hitherto. As long as the reasons for bin Laden's appeal to certain Islamist constituencies remains, new cells and entirely new groups will be formed within migrant communities and among those engaged in regional conflicts around the world.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

1092. United STates — Anti-Terrorism Foreign Aid

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This piece focuses on The changing nature of US foreign assistance priorities in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. There will be broad support for a rapid expansion of foreign aid designed to counter the terrorism threat and to support key coalition partners. Whether that support is sustainable in the future depends, at least in part, on the programme's success in enhancing US 'homeland security'. If the anti-terrorism foreign aid programme is shown to serve US interests, help erode poverty, promote democracy and stabilise the political positions of coalition partners, public opinion may in future support more robust programmes. However, if a large portion of assistance is mismanaged or abused, and/or accountability and impact are marginal, enthusiasm for foreign aid is likely to be undermined still further.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

1093. International — Unusual Securities Trades

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on Wednesday, September 26, in Vienna. The uncertainties associated with the international oil market have been greatly compounded by the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

1094. United States — Terrorist Aftermath

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The World Trade Center's twin towers in New York City and the Pentagon in Washington were on Tuesday subjected to devastating terrorist attacks. The atrocities will prompt a wide-ranging review of US security and intelligence systems which, on Tuesday's evidence, failed spectacularly.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

1095. United States — Medical Marijuana

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The US Supreme Court heard oral argument last month on whether 'medical necessity' should override the federal government's blanket prohibition on the use of marijuana. If the Court were to accept this argument, it would provide a powerful boost to the medical marijuana movement and hamper the federal government's ability to pursue its current drugs policy. A ruling in favour of the federal government, however, would constrain the ability of states to formulate independent drug policies. The Supreme Court is likely to sidestep the substantive issue of whether 'medical necessity' allows the distribution of marijuana to seriously ill patients. Its inclination will be to decide the case on a narrow procedural ground which would leave the federal government to decide if it wishes to pursue criminal prosecutions.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

1096. United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Colombia, and South America

1097. Inspections in Iraq: A Test For Saddam, Not A Good Solution for WMD

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Like that of its predecessor, the Bush administration's policy toward Iraq appears to focus on the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the hands of Saddam Husayn's regime. Some suggest that U.S. policy should emphasize the resumption of inspections, suspended since 1998. However, there are strong reasons to doubt that inspections would reduce the threat of Iraqi WMD.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1098. Promoting Religious Freedom in the Arab World, Post-September 11

Author:
Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
To win the war against terrorism, the U.S. government must pursue with equal vigor both the short-term imperative to root out terrorist groups, including their international support networks, and the longer-term objective of advancing a positive vision for the Arab world, one that offers an alternative to the destructive ideology of the terrorists. Both efforts are essential; focusing on the former at the expense of the latter will almost surely prove self-defeating.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1099. Special Policy Forum Report: Europe and the Campaign Against Terror

Author:
Josef Joffe
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 6, 2001, Josef Joffe addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum about the many faces of European politics and policy in the context of September 11. Dr. Joffe, a special visiting fellow of The Washington Institute, is publisher-editor of the German weekly Die Zeit, and a contributing editor of Time (International). A frequent commentator on U.S., British, and German radio and television, his essays and reviews have appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, New York Review of Books, Times Literary Supplement, Commentary, New York Times Magazine, New Republic, and the Weekly Standard. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1100. U.S. Military Operations and the Question of Ramadan

Author:
Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ramadan, the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, will begin on November 16. Some in the United States and abroad have suggested that a moratorium in military operations would be appropriate. Others see no reason to stop. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has stated that "history is replete with instances where Muslims have fought Muslims and Muslims have fought non-Muslims throughout all of the various holy days, including Ramadan." What, then, is the Muslim sentiment regarding fighting during Ramadan? Is there historical precedent or religious requirement for the cessation of hostilities?
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries