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91. Is Radical Islam Inevitable in Central Asia? Priorities for Engagement

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The terrorist acts in the United States on 11 September 2001 have prompted an ongoing discussion of how international engagement, in all its aspects, can undermine Islamist radicalism and promote religious tolerance. New attention to Central Asia after 9/11, including a Western military presence, has also focused minds on whether the region is at serious threat from Islamist radicalism and what can be done about it. This report examines the attitudes of Central Asian Muslims to the West, based on public opinion surveys and interviews in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and offers a range of policy options for closer engagement with Islam and approaches that might reduce support for radical alternatives to present regimes.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

92. Time to Shut Down the PKK: Why the United States and Turkey Should Work Together

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A U.S. government team is in Ankara today for talks with members of the Turkish military and intelligence services regarding the future of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization on the State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. On September 2, 2003, the PKK, whose past attacks have cost Turkey 35,000 lives, renounced a unilateral ceasefire it had declared in February 2000. This is a dangerous development for three reasons. First, PKK violence could throw Turkey back into the political maelstrom of the 1990s, and it is in Washington's best interests to help preserve democratic Turkey's stability. Second, if the PKK attacks Turkey from U.S.-controlled northern Iraq, where it has an estimated 4,000-5,000 terrorists, this could put Washington and Ankara at loggerheads. Third, Turkey considers joint action against the PKK a sine qua non for U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq; it is unlikely that Ankara will send troops to Iraq unless the PKK issue is tackled. Given all of these reasons, the threat that the PKK poses to U.S. national interests is now at such a level that the organization is a legitimate target in the war on terror. Therefore, it is time to take action against the PKK.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

93. Arrows for India?

Author:
Richard Speier
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon visits India on September 9-11, he is likely to explore the possible sale of Israeli Arrow antiballistic missiles to New Delhi. The United States, which has provided funds and technology for the Arrow since 1986, has a veto right over sales to third parties. U.S. approval of a sale to India would offer both advantages and disadvantages.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, India, Israel, New Delhi, and Arabia

94. European Union Reforms Diminish the Role of the Turkish Military: Ankara Knocking on Brussels' Door

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 8, 2003, the seventh European Union (EU) reform package went into effect in Turkey, significantly curbing the role of the military in politics. This legislation, passed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government on August 4, follows six previous packages adopted since February 2002. Collectively, these reform measures have vastly liberalized the country's political system, facilitating Kurdish broadcasting and education, abolishing the death penalty, and subjecting Turkish courts to the European Court of Human Rights. Turkey now has laws guaranteeing freedom of speech, and the military is no longer the kingmaker in Ankara. As a result, AKP -- a self-styled "conservative democratic" party with an identifiable "Islamist pedigree" -- anticipates that Turkey will pass muster when Brussels reviews its candidacy for EU membership in June 2004. Ankara hopes that the EU will establish an accession calendar, opening the way for Turkey's eventual entry into the union, perhaps within the next decade. These developments are crucial to Turkey's future. Which path will the country take now that the military is stripped of its role as a decisionmaking body? Will the EU open its doors to Turkey?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

95. U.S.-Turkish Military Cooperation in Iraq? The Next Step

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A surprising summit meeting yesterday in Ankara involving members of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, the Turkish General Staff, the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization produced an agreement "in principle" to send Turkish "peacekeeping soldiers" to Iraq. From one perspective, if Turkish troops were deployed to Iraq, it could end the period of "strategic pause" between Washington and Ankara in place since March 1, when the Turkish parliament refused to open up a northern front for U.S. troops invading Iraq. There are still political obstacles to Turkish troop deployment -- such as a divided AKP and a fairly reluctant parliament. Moreover, Turkish law requires that parliament authorize sending troops abroad except in the case of international legislation (such as a UN resolution), or a call for help justifying such a deployment, and the Turkish parliament is in recess until October 1. But even before the AKP government determines its position on this issue, a major hurdle will have to be overcome: if American and Turkish troops are to work together in Iraq, they will first have to build mutual confidence, which -- once formidable -- seems to have quickly eroded over the past months. How can this be accomplished?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

96. The September 11 Congressional Report: A Sea Change in U.S.-Saudi Relations?

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Yesterday's meeting in the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud al-Faisal reflects both Saudi official anger at the reports of the kingdom's apparent complicity in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and its continuing ability to gain short-notice access to the very top of the U.S. administration. But reports of the meeting suggest a new and public toughness by President Bush toward the Saudi leadership -- a significant break in the closeness between two political dynasties, the Bushes and the al-Saud.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

97. Special Policy Forum Report: The U.S.-Turkish Relationship -- Prospects and Perils

Author:
Abdullah Gul
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 25, 2003, Turkish deputy prime minister and foreign minister Abdullah Gul addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gul was Turkey's prime minister between November 2002 and March 2003, and he served as minister of state and government spokesman in the Welfare Party government of 1997. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Dr. Gul's remarks and the question-and-answer session that followed.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

98. Hizballah's Unwitting U.S. Bankers

Author:
Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Executives at some leading U.S. financial, corporate, and journalistic institutions, such as JP Morgan Chase, Wachovia, American Express Centurion Bank, Associated Press Television News (APTN), Telestar5, and Interland, should be aware that their organizations are unwitting accomplices in the terrorist activities of Hizballah, recently labeled "the A team" of terrorism by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

99. Succession Politics in the Conservative Arab Gulf States: The Weekend's Events in Ras Al-Khaimah

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The normally sleepy shaykhdom of Ras al-Khaimah, part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was wracked by gunfire and street protests over the weekend after the aged and frail ruler, Shaykh Saqr bin Mohammed al-Qassimi, switched the title of crown prince from one of his seven sons to another. Sword-waving supporters of the deposed son, Shaykh Khalid, forced members of the emiri guard to retreat behind the high walls of the ruler's palace. A semblance of order was restored only after Abu Dhabi, the lead emirate of the UAE, sent armored vehicles to Ras al-Khaimah. Shaykh Khalid still contests the change, but troops have prevented supporters from reaching his palace. Although he is an outspoken critic of the United States, his removal flies in the face of certain U.S. policy objectives.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

100. Reading Between the Lines of the Sharm Al-Shaykh Summit

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host, President Hosni Mubarak, offers a revealing look into where U.S. and Arab leaders agree, disagree, and choose to remain ambiguous on critical issues facing the region.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt