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52. Countering Violent Extremism: Lessons Learned
- Author:
- Jonathan R. Mroz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- In his inaugural address, U.S. President Barack Obama told the Muslim world they would be judged by what they build, not what they destroy. But even if those who build far outnumber those who destroy, many governments and societies will continue to be confronted by the specter of violent extremism. The challenge they face is how to devise effective strategies to counter the extremists and encourage long-term solutions that go beyond merely containing the problem to addressing its root causes. This is the challenge we posed to a wide variety of participants in the EastWest Institute's Countering Violent Extremism Initiative.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States
53. The Sadrists of Basraand the Far South of Iraq The Most Unpredictable Political Force in the Gulf's Oil-Belt Region?
- Author:
- Reidar Visser
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The argument in this paper is two-fold: On the one hand, the oil-rich far south of Iraq has a special potential for radical and unpredictable millenarianism by discontented Sadrists; on the other hand, developments among the Sadrist leadership nationally suggest that many key figures – including Muqtada al-Sadr himself and some of his lieutenants with links to Basra – still prefer a more moderate course and will seek to hold on to a veneer of Shiite orthodoxy as long as possible. Accordingly, the future of the Sadrist movement, including in the far south, will likely be decided by how US and Iraqi government policies develop over coming months. If Washington chooses to support Nuri al-Maliki in an all-out attack against the Sadrists, the response may well be an intensification of unpredictable Mahdist militancy in the far south, in a far more full-blown picture than anything seen so far. There will be no genuine national reconciliation in Baghdad, simply because the centralism of the Sadrists is a necessary ingredient in any grand compromise that can appeal to real Sunni representatives. Conversely, if the Sadrists are encouraged to participate in the next local elections, Amara, where Sadrists have been engaged in local politics since 2005, could emerge as a model of positive Sadrist contributions to local politics in Iraq. At the national level, too, the Sadrists could come to play the same constructive role as that seen in February 2008, when they together with Fadila reached out to Sunni Islamists and secularists to challenge the paralysed Maliki government on a nationalist basis by demanding early provincial elections.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Baghdad, and Palestine
54. Armenia: Picking up the Pieces
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Armenia's flawed presidential election, the subsequent lethal crackdown against a peaceful protest rally, the introduction of a state of emergency and extensive arrests of opposition supporters have brought the country to its deepest crisis since the war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. The situation deprives Serzh Sarkisian, scheduled to be inaugurated as president on 9 April 2008, of badly needed legitimacy and handicaps prospects for much needed democratic reform and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict alike. Unless the U.S., EU and others with significant diplomatic leverage over the regime in Yerevan exert pressure, Armenia is unlikely to make progress on either. The Sarkisian administration must urgently seek credible dialogue with the opposition, release prisoners detained on political grounds, stop arrests and harassment of the opposition and lift all measures limiting freedom of assembly and expression. Unless steps are taken to address the political crisis, the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put on hold negotiations on further and closer cooperation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Political Violence, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
55. "The Rise of Afghanistan's Insurgency: State Failure and Jihad"
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In 2001 approximately 100 Central Intelligence Agency officers, 350 U.S. Special Forces soldiers, and 15,000 Afghans overthrew the Taliban regime in less than three months while suffering only a dozen U.S. fatalities. They were supported by as many as 100 U.S. combat sorties per day. Some individuals involved in the operation argued that it revitalized the American way of war. This initial success, however, transitioned into an insurgency, as the Taliban and other insurgent groups began a sustained effort to overthrow the Afghan government. The fighting, which began in 2002, had developed into a full-blown insurgency by 2006. During this period, the number of insurgent-initiated attacks rose by 400 percent, and the number of deaths from these attacks by more than 800 percent. The increase in violence was particularly acute between 2005 and 2006, when the number of suicide attacks quintupled from 27 to 139; remotely detonated bombings more than doubled from 783 to 1,677; and armed attacks nearly tripled from 1,558 to 4,542. Insurgent-initiated attacks rose another 27 percent between 2006 and 2007. The result was a lack of security for Afghans and foreigners.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban
56. Societal Adjustments to the Threat of Terrorist Attacks
- Author:
- Seymour Spilerman and Guy Stecklov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Terrorist attacks in the United States and in Western Europe have been rare and the public awareness of the terrorist menace has largely been molded by a few horrific events. In contrast, other countries have experienced chronic terrorism, with attacks on busses, restaurants, coffee shops, and retail establishments. In this paper we assess the impact of terrorism on civilian society in the United States, Northern Ireland, and Israel. We examine the psychological effects, the adaptations made by individuals to enhance their safety, and the consequent adjustments made by institutional actors and by commercial establishments to ensure continued economic viability. We review the various theories of societal adjustments to exogenous shocks, and point out that a very different formulation is required for the case of chronic terrorism than for the societal experience of a one-time attack.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Israel, and Ireland
57. Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk
- Author:
- Monty G. Marshall
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- A public debate over the threat posed by weak, fragile, failing, and failed states and what can or should be done about them has become increasing visible and vocal since the attacks of September 11, 2001. As President George W. Bush declared in his 2002 National Security Strategy report: “America is now threatened less by conquering states than ... by failing ones.” This debate has grown particularly acute as the United States' prolonged military response to the war on global terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq has revealed the difficulties of controlling militancy and extremism by direct military intervention and enforced democratic change. The challenges associated with weak or failing states have garnered increase d attention by the policy community, but major differences about how to assess the level of risk in any given case remain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Development, Diplomacy, Government, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and America
58. Pakistani Public Opinion on Democracy, Islamist Militancy, and Relations with the U.S.
- Author:
- C. Christine Fair and Clay Ramsay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past year, Pakistan has endured a series of traumatic events that have brought increasing stress to its people and its political classes, as well as to American policymakers and the international community.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Violence, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and Asia
59. Countering Violent Extremism: Lessons from the Abrahamic Faiths
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The April 19, 1995, bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City was the deadliest act of domestic terrorism on U.S. soil and focused the attention of law enforcement, policy makers, and the public on the long overlooked or ignored activities of American paramilitary groups. Although the actions of those convicted for the bombing—Timothy McVeigh, Terry Nichols, and Michael Fortier—were not driven principally by theology, the political movements from which they drew their inspiration have long been associated with the beliefs of a movement that has taken the name “Christian Identity.” It is characterized by ideas purporting to draw religious authority for anti- Semitism, white supremacism, and neo-Nazism.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Violence, Religion, Insurgency, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States
60. Jordan: Little presence outside WEF
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Media Tenor International
- Abstract:
- Coverage on the Middle East continues to be very prominent in many countries, particularly the United States, where close to 80% of all its international coverage is devoted to the region. In German television, other European countries together received the same volumes as the Middle East. This is a very high ratio, considering that German troops are only involved in Afghanistan, and not in other Arab countries. Coverage on the Middle East is considerably subdued in South African television when compared to other measured countries, perhaps because events in Europe received considerably more attention. German television committed the largest share of its coverage to international news (44%), followed by the United States and Britain (37%), while Arab television dedicated 29% of its coverage to the international arena. The lowest share of international focus was in South African television news (24%).
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia