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101. Global Economic Governance at a Crossroads: Replacing the G-7 with the G-20

Author:
Johannes F. Linn and Colin I. Jr. Bradford
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Finance ministers representing the Group of 7 (G-7) industrialized countries met in Boca Raton, Florida, in early February amid concerns about the weakening of the U.S. dollar. One factor in the dollar's decline is the U.S. trade deficit, which is partly due to the undervalued Chinese yuan. The involvement of China, which is not a G-7 member, illustrates both the glaring gap in global governance and the increasing economic and policy interdependence between industrial countries and major emerging market economies (EMEs). As one observer, referring to the Boca Raton meeting, put it, "China is the 800-pound gorilla and it isn't even part of the negotiations."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and China

102. The Uncertain Future of the Telecommunications Industry

Author:
Robert E. Litan and Roger G. Noll
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The U.S. telecommunications industry is riding a roller coaster. For most of the 1990s, the industry's future looked promising. The growth of Internet use, the promise of a broadband network, and a less restrictive regulatory environment that was expected following passage of the 1996 Telecommunications Act led industry experts to forecast rapidly growing demand for core network services along with high-margin business opportunities in an expanding array of new information services. The industry backed these expectations with massive investments to expand the capacity of both wireless and wire line networks as well as to facilitate the expected boom in high-speed data transmission.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

103. China Brief, Hu Jintao's Move to Consolidate Power

Author:
Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Dennis J. Blasko, and Zhu Feng
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
President and Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman Hu Jintao has moved swiftly to tighten his grip over the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The emphasis that the new commander-in-chief has put on flexing the nation's fast-growing military muscle has fed speculation that he will be taking a more hard-line stance on relations with the U.S. and with Taiwan. However, it is unlikely that the predominant Hu-Wen Faction – a reference to the leadership team under Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao – will unveil too many major initiatives until it has consolidated its control over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the government and the army.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan

104. China Brief, Balancing U.S. Interests in the Strait

Author:
Ronald N. Montaperto, Willy Lam, Cynthia Watson, and Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In the view of many observers, the normalization of Sino-American relations signaled the end of a strategic relationship with the Republic of China (Taiwan) that had endured with but one brief interruption for forty years. The rapid growth of economic ties between the U.S. and mainland China in the 1980s seemed to confirm this assessment. Although political connections through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) remain strong, the major benefit to the United States of its unofficial relationship to the island lies in the economic realm.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan

105. China Brief, Kim Jong-Il's Visit to Beijing: What Does it Mean for the West?

Author:
Mohan Malik, Matthew Oresman, Willy Lam, and Paul H.B Godwin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The unusually effusive reception that the Chinese leadership accorded Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il last week has buttressed speculation that Beijing and Pyongyang probably reached some form of a deal even prior to the long awaited visit. According to diplomatic sources in Beijing, Kim agreed during discussions with his Chinese hosts to take a “more serious and proactive stance” toward the ongoing six-nation talks on dismantling his country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Moreover, the sources said the reclusive leader pledged that unless there was further “provocation” from the United States, Pyongyang would not engage in tension raising gimmicks such as testing bombs or missiles. And, at least for the time being, a freeze would be put on the development of new WMD.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Beijing, and Pyongyang

106. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy

Author:
Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

107. Economic Survey of the United States, 2004

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Economic performance over the past two decades has been impressive. Underpinned by an increased reliance on competitive forces, which have been stronger than in most other member countries for some time, productivity and output have accelerated significantly. In recent years, helped by timely macroeconomic policy responses, the economy has demonstrated its capacity to adjust to adverse shocks, so that the per capita growth gap against other countries has widened further. The outlook is for this to continue in the next few years, with real GDP expanding by around 4 per cent per annum. Nonetheless, there are a number of challenges that need to be addressed to sustain these laudable economic outcomes. By far the top priority is to confront the current and projected federal budget deficits. The fiscal stimulus of the past few years has been helpful in supporting the recovery, but if public dissaving is not reduced, interest rates may be higher, ultimately implying slower growth in economic potential. Increased budget discipline, and indeed significant reform on both the spending and revenue sides of the budget, will be necessary because of the impending demographic pressures on government finances. Corrective fiscal measures will also assist the unwinding of the current account deficit, which is unusually large for this stage of the cycle. As the Federal Reserve begins to move the federal funds rate back to a more neutral level, it will need to be especially attentive to the clarity of its communications with the markets. Further corporate-governance and accounting reforms would help to underpin confidence of domestic and foreign investors, thereby facilitating orderly current-account adjustment. Less reliance on import restrictions and maintaining a leadership role in trade liberalisation would favour structural adjustment at home. Furthermore, despite the generally pro-competitive thrust of antitrust and other regulatory policies, a number of areas deserve attention, notably intellectual property rights, telecommunications and electricity, where further reforms would be welfare enhancing.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Human Rights, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

108. The Great Inflation of the 1970s

Author:
Fabrice Collard and Harris Dellas
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Was the high inflation of the 1970s mostly due to incomplete information about the structure of the economy (an unavoidable mistake as suggested by Orphanides, 2000)? Or, to weak reaction to expected inflation and/or excessive policy activism that led to indeterminacies (a policy mistake, a scenario suggested by Clarida, Gali and Gertler, 2000)? We study this question within the NNS model with policy commitment and imperfect information, requiring that the model have satisfactory overall empirical performance. We find that both explanations do a good job in accounting for the great inflation. Even with the commonly used specification of the interest policy rule, high and persistent inflation can occur following a significant productivity slowdown if policymakers significantly and persistently underestimate ”core” inflation.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

109. How Revolutionary is the Revolution: Will there be a “Political Economy” of the Digital Era?

Author:
John Zysman and Abe Newman
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to consider whether there is a political economy of a digital era. Our concern is how the digital revolution influences the role of the State in society and the economy and the politics that surround it? In the spring of 2000 in the midst of the stock boom we would have as ked: “Is the extraordinary expansion of computing intelligence, the pervasive spread of digital networks, and the recent arrival of the commercial Internet, the edge of an historical revolution, a transformation?” Data networks had existed for decades and Business to Business commerce (B2B) had been conducted over these networks for years. But the sudden interconnection of disparate networks into a single “cyber world”, and broad consumer participation in those networks through vehicles such as AOL seemed to augur a new era. The pace at which individuals, not just firms, were being connected to the Internet in the United States was explosive. Businesses were reorganizing and extending intern al activities to capture the possibilities of the network of networks. Together the Internet's rapid build out encouraged the fantasy that the new information network technologies could, in themselves, transform the terms of competition and restructure a broad range of the economy. By the summer of 2003, the conventional question had become different: “Was this the revolution that never happened, the dreams evaporating with stock values, first during the dot com collapse and then in the telecoms debacle?” Did the digital revolution have more in common with tulip speculation, a pure ephemera, than the railroad expansion and transportation revolution that created and destroyed individual fortunes. Of course, the industrial revolution di d not end with the first textile company failures, nor does the digital revolution end with the dot com collapse.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

110. Malaysia And The United States: Rejecting Dominance, Embracing Engagement

Author:
Helen E.S. Nesadurai
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper explains Malaysia-US relations in terms of national interests derived from the nature of the Malaysian political economy and the salience of Islam in Malay(sian) politics as they interact with US foreign policy postures derived from distinct US grand strategies. The paper compares Malaysia's responses to the US under the Clinton and the first George W. Bush Administrations in terms of the following: (a) instances of cooperation and non-cooperation on key US initiatives; (b) pursuit of alternative economic and defence/security relationships; and (c) construction of alternative discourses and coalitions aimed at challenging US initiatives and its hegemony more broadly. Malaysia's responses to the US can be summed up in the phrase, 'rejecting dominance, embracing engagement', evident during both the Clinton and the Bush Administrations and consistent under the Mahathir and the current Abdullah Badawi governments. The Malaysian government's attempts to develop coalitions to challenge US initiatives and its hegemony have not alwyas been successful. The government has, nonetheless, stood firm and rejected US initiatives and actions that directly threatened national interests. The US, on its part, has accommodated itself to Malaysia's positions on a number of occasions since September 11, reflecting Malaysia's valuable role in Washington's fight against terrorism. Both governments also cooperation extensively in economics, defence and transnational crime from which both parties draw benefits.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Malaysia, and Southeast Asia