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81. New rules for a new 'Great Game'

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Strongly growing demand for oil, the sharp run up in prices since mid-2003 and tight supply, have seen energy insecurity return to the international policy agenda. Fears have been raised that China's emergence as a voracious consumer of oil and gas and a keen competitor in global energy markets might imperil the largely cordial relationship that has developed between Beijing and Washington over the last decade. There is also a risk that the competition for energy resources could feed into the less than cordial relations between China and Japan. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to examine the risks that the competition for oil resources might pose for international security, focusing in particular on the relationships between the United States, Middle East oil producers and major Northeast Asian energy consumers, and to propose a mechanism for defusing some of the risks that this competition could entail.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Organization, International Political Economy, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Middle East

82. The Three-Way Game: Iran, Iraq, and the United States

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The July 16–18 visit to Tehran by Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jafari and ten other members of his council of ministers has been hailed by some as the beginning of a new era in Iran-Iraq relations. In fact, the pattern of near-term relations was set during Iraqi defense minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi's preparatory visit to Iran on July 5–7. At a joint press conference on July 7 with his Iranian counterpart, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the Iraqi official fell victim to the oldest trick in the Iranian diplomatic playbook. Speaking well beyond what had been agreed by the two sides, Shamkhani announced “wide defense cooperation” and alluded to the imminent conclusion of a defense pact between the two countries (as Iran has done in the past with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia). Al-Dulaimi was likewise forced to clarify the limited nature of the discussions while also taking pains to state, “Iraq will not be a source of insecurity and instability for any of its neighbors. Nobody can use [Iraqi territory] to attack its neighbors.” The message to both Tehran and Washington was clear: the three-way game between the governments of Iran, Iraq, and the United States has begun again. With Iraq caught in the middle, Baghdad intends to play an increasingly autonomous role as the game unfolds.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

83. The Gleneagles G8 Summit: Middle Eastern Issues on the Agenda

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Beginning on July 6, British prime minister Tony Blair will host the G8 summit in Gleneagles, a hotel and golf course in Scotland. Africa and climate change are the two main topics on the agenda, but counterterrorism, proliferation, and political reform in the Middle East are scheduled to be discussed as well. The annual G8 summit has become the sole forum in which the leaders of the seven top industrialized countries (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States) and Russia meet to discuss and decide on courses of action. Diplomatic grandstanding and expected antiglobalization demonstrations aside, the summit is an opportunity to set the international political and bureaucratic agenda for months ahead.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Britain, Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Middle East, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Scotland

84. China and Oil: The Middle East Dimension

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Rapidly growing Chinese oil demand was one of the key factors influencing discussions at this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), convened in Vienna by ministers from OPEC member states. During the first eight months of 2004, Chinese oil imports surged by 40 percent compared with the same period in 2003, contributing to the rapid rise in oil prices during the summer. China, the world's most populous nation, knows its economic growth must be fueled by oil imports, with the Middle East serving as the principal source. Accordingly, Beijing has begun to make energy security a priority, mounting a campaign to build improved commercial and diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern states. These efforts will entail increased competition with U.S. influence in the region.
Topic:
Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, and Arab Countries

85. Implications of U.S. Dependence on Middle East Oil

Author:
Dov Zakheim
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The subject of energy and oil dependence should be at the top of the U.S. national security agenda. There are several reasons for concern. First, the world demand for oil is growing rapidly. Chinese and Indian development alone will push oil consumption up in the near future. The middle class in India, for instance, although not yet reaching the American standard of living, is approximately the size of the population of the United States and will be in the market for cars in the next five to ten years.
Topic:
Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

86. Relying on the Saudis: The Challenge for U.S. Oil Policy

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over the past week, oil prices have exceeded $40 per barrel for the first time since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and gasoline prices in parts of the United States are now more $2 per gallon. Contributing to this increase were heightened concerns about supply, particularly in the wake of a May 1 terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. Two Americans and three other Westerners were killed in the attack, and the body of one of the victims was dragged through the streets behind the terrorists' vehicle. Following the incident, the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia urged Americans to leave the kingdom.
Topic:
Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia

87. Special Policy Forum Report: Post-Saddam Iraq: What Follows a U.S.-Led Intervention?

Author:
Amatzia Baram
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Among the many advantages of an Iraq without Saddam Husayn, the first clear one is the removal of an unacceptable threat to the Iraqi people. Saddam has shown that he is prepared to put the nation and the region as a whole at risk. At the very least, an Iraq without his regime would be much more friendly to America, and — given Iraqi oil reserves — could even lessen American dependence on Saudi oil.
Topic:
Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia