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61. Oil, Gas and International Insecurity: Tackling a Self-fuelling Fire

Author:
Daniel Litvin
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In the United States, European Union and Asia, fears about dependence on oil and gas imports from unstable regions have become a major theme of political debate. This paper provides a high-level and historical perspective on this complex issue. Dependence on oil and gas imports raises real economic- and political-security issues for many countries. Neither the global economic crisis nor climate change policies - both of which look set to restrain oil and gas demand - will solve the problem entirely. In fact, over the next few decades it is likely to become worse.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

62. The Canadian Oil Sands: Energy Security vs. Climate Change

Author:
Michael A. Levi
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Half a decade of high and volatile oil prices alongside increasingly dire warnings of climatic disaster have pushed energy security and climate change steadily up the U.S. policy agenda. Rhetoric in Washington has emphasized opportunities to deal with both challenges at once. But energy security and climate change do not always align: many important decisions in areas including unconventional oil, biofuels, natural gas, coal, and nuclear power will involve complex trade-offs and force policymakers to carefully navigate the two goals. Ongoing and heated debates in the United States and Canada over the future of the Canadian oil sands—touted at once as an energy security godsend and a climate change disaster—highlight that tension and emphasize the need to intelligently address it.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Canada

63. Blood Oil in the Niger Delta

Author:
Judith Burdin Asuni
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The trade in stolen oil, or “blood oil,” poses an immense challenge to the Nigerian state, harming its economy and fueling a long-running insurgency in the Niger Delta. It also undermines security in the Gulf of Guinea and adds to instability on world energy markets. The exact amount of oil stolen per day in the Niger Delta is unknown, but it is somewhere between 30,000 and 300,000 barrels. The loss to the Nigerian economy from illegal oil bunkering between 2003 and 2008 totals approximately US$100 billion. It is time for the international community to become more proactive in helping Nigeria address this complex issue. Efforts to control blood oil must be accompanied by actions against corruption, illegal arms importation, and money laundering. The enabling environment for illegal oil bunkering includes high levels of unemployed youth, armed ethnic militias, ineffective and corrupt law enforcement officials, protective government officials and politicians, corrupt oil company staff, established international markets for stolen oil, and the overall context of endemic corruption. The three types of illegal oil bunkering include small-scale pilfering for the local market, large-scale tapping of pipelines to fill large tankers for export, and excess lifting of crude oil beyond the licensed amount. The complexity of players in the illegal oil bunkering business, including local youth, members of the Nigerian military and political class, and foreign ship owners, makes it difficult to tackle the problem unilaterally. Previous attempts by the Nigerian government and international community to address illegal oil bunkering have had limited success in reducing the flow of blood oil. The problem of blood oil needs to be addressed multilaterally. Within the international community, the United States is uniquely positioned to take a leadership role in helping to dry up blood oil and address other issues in the Niger Delta.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Markets, Oil, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Nigeria, and Guinea

64. Media Briefing Booklet: President Barack Obama's Visit to Ghana July 10, 2009

Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Over the past decade, Africa's status in U.S. national security policy has risen dramatically, for three main reasons: America's growing dependence on Africa's oil exports, Africa's importance as a major battlefield in America's “Global War on Terrorism,” and Africa's central position in the global competition between America and China for economic and political power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, America, and Ghana

65. The 2008 Oil Price "Bubble"

Author:
Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
As oil prices began to rise in 2009 from a low point of about $40 a barrel in January to around $70 a barrel in July, a key question is whether the world is in for another oil price spike in the near term similar to that witnessed in early 2008. Several hypotheses were advanced when world oil prices started their inexorable climb from 2003–04 onwards, then skyrocketed from $92 a barrel in January 2008 to cross the $140 a barrel mark in June, finally hitting a record high of $147 a barrel on July 11, 2008, before collapsing to less than $40 a barrel in December (figure 1). There was the “peak oil” explanation, based on the theories of M. King Hubbert of “Hubbert's Peak” fame and his supporters, notably Colin Campbell and Matthew Simmons, that the world was running out of oil. There were the market “fundamentalists,” including importantly John Lipsky, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Philip Verleger, a well-known oil expert, who argued that the fundamentals of demand and supply were primarily behind the extraordinary rise in oil prices in the first half of 2008 (Lipsky 2009a, 2009b; Verleger 2005, 2008). Interestingly, this fundamentals view was also shared by the US Treasury and was articulated by David McCormick, then undersecretary for international affairs, in a presentation in July 2008 at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Finally, there were those who maintained that such an increase could only be a “bubble,” unexplained by peak oil theory or market fundamentals. Many financial-market participants were proponents of this third view, notably Michael Masters (2008), as well as the main oil producers, who were as surprised as anyone at the speed and size of the price increase over only a few months. Their argument was that the phenomenal increase in financialization of commodity markets during 2006–08, including in particular the oil market, led to speculation and momentum trading, which pushed oil prices way beyond their long-term equilibrium level as determined by fundamentals.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States

66. Five Alternatives that Make More Sense than Offshore Oil

Author:
Whitney Leonard
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Foreign oil currently fuels 55 percent of all transportation in the United States. As it struggles to reduce its dependence on foreign oil, the United States will have to completely rethink its energy policies. Instead of replacing imported oil with domestic oil, extracted at high environmental costs from new rigs offshore and across the western states, the country could opt for cleaner alternatives like higher fuel economy standards, hybrid-electric vehicles, plugin hybrids, cellulosic ethanol, and new commuting patterns. By decreasing demand rather than increasing supply, energy alternatives could reduce or eliminate the need to expand offshore oil production. This paper explores the economic and environmental costs of offshore oil and investigates a range of cleaner energy options.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States

67. The Political Economy of Oil in the U.S.-Iran Crisis: U.S. globalized oil interests vs. Iranian regional interests

Author:
Thomas W. O'Donnell
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
In the U.S.-Iran nuclear crisis, U.S. motivations stem from its role as protector of today's market-centered, global oil system, herein "The One Global Barrel." This market itself is the principal basis of global energy security today, unlike the political-economics of the old neo-colonial system. But, most light-oil reserves are in P ersian Gulf states— Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Iran and Iraq. U.S. Grand Strategy prevents any from projecting power affecting another's production and undermining the open market. Hence, Iraq was driven from Kuwait, placed under sanctions and the Ba'athists overthrown. Iran alone now projects power independently. Its nuclear program is a gambit for a Grand Bargain to lift oil sanctions without surrendering Regional power status, or to accomplish this asfait accompli. A future national-democratic Iran could find U.S. limits on sovereign power equally obnoxious. These underlying oil-market interests must be publically recognized to advance negotiation of the present crisis.
Topic:
Oil and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates

68. Africa: The United States and China Court the Continent

Author:
David H. Shinn
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
The United States and China are the two most important bilateral, external actors in Africa today. While the United States wields more influence in most of Africa's fifty-three countries, China has surpassed it in a number of states and is challenging it in others. Both countries look to Africa as an increasingly significant source of raw materials, especially oil. China, more than the United States, views Africa from a long-term strategic perspective. Both countries seek political and economic support in international forums from African countries, which constitute more than a quarter of the membership of the United Nations. The interests of the United States and China in Africa are more similar than dissimilar. There will inevitably be some competition over access to African natural resources and political support, but there are even greater opportunities for cooperation that can benefit African nations.
Topic:
Oil and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and China

69. Learning the Right Lessons from Iraq

Author:
Harvey Sapolsky, Christopher Preble, and Benjamin Friedman
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Foreign policy experts and policy analysts are misreading the lessons of Iraq. The emerging conventional wisdom holds that success could have been achieved in Iraq with more troops, more cooperation among U.S. government agencies, and better counterinsurgency doctrine. To analysts who share these views, Iraq is not an example of what not to do but of how not to do it. Their policy proposals aim to reform the national security bureaucracy so that we will get it right the next time.
Topic:
International Relations and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

70. Saudi Arabia: The Gathering Storm

Author:
Ali Alyami
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
The United States has had close ties to Saudi Arabia and its ruling family since the formation of the Saudi state in the early 1930s, when American oil companies began to survey the vast inhospitable sandy terrain of that country in hopes of finding oil deposits. They did, birthing a relationship between two countries divided by religious, political, social, economic and educational values. Frankly put, Saudi Arabia and the Unites States have nothing in common other than the fact that the former has oil and the latter needs it to lubricate the engines of its military and economic might.
Topic:
Oil
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Saudi Arabia