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182. PolicyWatch #1324: Raising the Costs for Tehran
- Author:
- Michael Jacobson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, questions are being raised as to whether sanctions and financial pressure remain a viable approach to changing Tehran's decisionmaking on its nuclear program. As evidence of this strategy's demise, critics point to the foundering attempts to negotiate a third round of UN sanctions against Iran -- sanctions that appeared imminent before the NIE's publication. While additional punitive measures by the UN are important and necessary, better enforcement of the various sanctions regimes already in place could have an equally significant impact.
- Topic:
- Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
183. Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea
- Author:
- Scott Snyder, Bonnie Glaser, and John Park
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Beijing viewed North Korea's explosion of a nuclear device in October 2006 as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but also an act of defiance toward China. Chinese officials admit that their toolbox for managing the North Korean nuclear weapons challenge must now include a combination of pressure and inducements. Three considerations underpin Beijing's aid policy toward North Korea: 1) protecting China's military-strategic environment; 2) maintaining security and stability along the Sino-DPRK border; and 3) sustaining economic development and political stability in the three Chinese northeastern provinces that border North Korea. There are intense debates among Chinese analysts over: 1) whether North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons; 2) the strategic value of the DPRK to China; 3) whether the Sino-DPRK treaty should be revised, abandoned, retained and its ambiguity stressed to enhance deterrence; and 4) the likelihood of a rapid improvement in U.S.-DPRK relations and how such a development would affect Chinese interests. Chinese analysts are generally less concerned with North Korea's immediate economic prospects than they were last year, reporting severe but stable conditions. Inflation has subsided and market mechanisms have largely replaced government rations as the primary means for securing a livelihood. In contrast to last year, when Chinese analysts were consumed by the seeming zero-sum choice between stability and reform facing the North Korean leadership, North Korea's slightly improved economic situation seems to have allayed the immediacy of Chinese concerns about North Korea's economic stability. Chinese experts report no fundamental change in North Korea's economic policies following the 2002 reforms. Chinese analysts provide conflicting assessments of whether government attempts to prohibit selling of grain in markets are succeeding and the extent to which the grain rationing system is working. Chinese DPRK specialists are encouraged that the DPRK has haltingly adopted some agricultural and market reforms and allowed greater autonomy to individual factories and enterprises. But they acknowledge that North Korea has not yet allowed farmers to act independently of their work teams, a step China took as early as the late 1970s that raised productivity sharply. Chinese analysts anticipate that reforms will continue as long as they do not threaten central government control. Chinese analysts widely assert that the North Korean system remains stable and they are confident that it will remain so for at least several years absent the sudden death of Kim Jong Il or external interference aimed at destabilizing the regime. In the long run, however, sustainable development through economic reform remains an essential prerequisite for stability, and North Korea's ability to move down that path is not yet assured. There are numerous indicators that the Chinese examine to assess stability trends in North Korea. These indicators are grouped in the following manner: 1) factionalism in the regime and potential challenges to Kim Jong Il's leadership; 2) political controls and ideological education; 3) influences from the outside; 4) the general public's loyalty to the Kim family; 5) crimes and illicit activities; 6) the economy, food supply, and economic reform; and 7) Kim Jong Il's health and the leadership succession. Chinese analysts see few signs of immediate instability in any of these areas at present, but they worry that the potential for instability may grow. In the event of instability in North Korea, China's priority will be to prevent refugees from flooding across the border. If deemed necessary, PLA troops would be dispatched into North Korea. China's strong preference is to receive formal authorization and coordinate closely with the United Nations (UN) in such an endeavor. However, if the international community did not react in a timely manner as internal order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the initiative in restoring stability. Contingency plans are in place for the PLA to perform at least three possible missions in the DPRK: 1) humanitarian missions such as assisting refugees or providing help after a natural disaster; 2) peacekeeping or “order keeping” missions such as serving as civil police; and 3) “environmental control” missions to clean up nuclear contamination resulting from a strike on North Korean nuclear facilities near the Sino-DPRK border and secure “loose nukes” and fissile material. There is apparent new willingness among Chinese institute analysts and PLA researchers to discuss the warning signs of instability in North Korea and how China might respond if the situation gets out of control and threatens Chinese security. Some Chinese experts say explicitly that they favor holding a discussion on stability in North Korea in official channels with the United States, including possible joint responses in support of common objectives such as securing nuclear weapons and fissile material. Other analysts maintain that such discussions are premature.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
184. A Chance to Rein In North Korea
- Author:
- Nicholas Eberstadt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- With a newly elected South Korean president willing to join the United States in standing up to North Korea, the Bush administration now has a unique opportunity to put pressure on Kim Jong Il to abandon his country's nuclear program and desist from its human rights abuses. In this article, AEI's Nicholas Eberstadt asks whether the administration will seize the opportunity.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
185. The Iran Counter-Proliferation Act of 2007
- Author:
- Danielle Pletka
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On April 8, Iran announced that it was expanding its plans to enrich uranium, despite demands from the United Nations (UN) Security Council that it halt the program. Iran will start installing six thousand more centrifuges in addition to its three thousand existing ones. In testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, AEI vice president Danielle Pletka reviewed recent U.S. and UN policy toward Iran; examined the evidence on sanctions, arguing that they are taking a toll on Iran's economy; and looked at what other options we now have for dealing with Iran.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
186. The North Korea Challenge
- Author:
- Danielle Pletka and John R. Bolton
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- In these two articles, AEI's Danielle Pletka and John R. Bolton bring us up to date and discuss the larger implications of developments since Kim Jong Il pledged to give up his nuclear ambitions in exchange for diplomatic recognition and foreign aid. Pletka reminds readers that since North Korea signed the 1994 accord, it has detonated a nuclear weapon, exported a reactor to Syria, aided Libya's incipient (and since dismantled) nuclear program, aided Hezbollah, provided sophisticated missiles to Iran, masterminded the counterfeiting of U.S. dollar bills, laundered development aid, and allowed hundreds of thousands of its citizens to starve. Yet the Bush administration "appears intent on the rehabilitation of North Korea and a broad lifting of sanctions," she says. Bolton argues that North Korea's proliferation is "quite likely more than a series of one-time transactions." The underlying reality of the North's activities, he says, "will haunt Bush's successor and threaten international peace."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and North Korea
187. Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: Why the United States Should Lead
- Author:
- George Perkovich
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The next American president should emphasize the goal of a world without nuclear weapons and really mean it. The verification and enforcement mechanisms that would be required to achieve this would augment U.S. and global security at a time when the nuclear industry will likely expand globally. Without a clearer commitment to the elimination of all nuclear arsenals, non–nuclear-weapon states will not support strengthened nonproliferation rules, inspections, and controls over fissile materials. The accounting and control over nuclear materials that would be necessary to enable nuclear disarmament would greatly reduce risks that terrorists could acquire these materials. If nuclear deterrence would work everywhere and always, we would not worry about proliferation. If nuclear deterrence is not fail-safe, the long-term answer must be to reduce the number and salience of nuclear weapons to zero.
- Topic:
- Government, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
188. NUCLEAR FUEL BANKS: Moscow, Washington to Lead on "Mergers"
- Author:
- Danila Bochkarev
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The United States and Russia are still the giants of nuclear power, accounting for more than half the world's enriched uranium production. Twenty-five percent of the world's nuclear power plants are found in the United States and half of those power plants use Russian uranium. Russian nuclear fuel now constitutes 10 percent of the U.S. power generation mix. The interdependence arising from existing trade in nuclear fuel points toward a natural partnership.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
189. "2009 – Time for detente and disarmament"
- Author:
- Hans Blix
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Cold War ended but it seems to be here again. The title for this paper is '2009 - time for détente and disarmament'. It really should have read 'high time for détente and disarmament' because the Cold War ended about twenty years ago and yet today it seems as if it were still here. We hear of plans for new nuclear weapons, the development and testing of missiles and antimissiles, plans for a further expansion of NATO and a chill in the cooperation between EU and Russia as a consequence of the war in Georgia.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, North Korea, and Georgia
190. The Emerging Structure of International Politics
- Author:
- Kenneth Waltz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Abstract:
- During the Cold War, the bipolar structure od international system and the nuclear weaponry avaliable to some states combined to perpetuate a troubled peace. As the bipolar era draws to a close, one has to question the likely structural changes in prospect. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, bipolarity endures, albeit in an altered state, because Russia stil takes care of itself and no great powers have emerged yet. With the waning of Russian power, the United States is no longer held in check by any other country. Balance of power theory leads one to assume that other powers, alone or in concert, will bring American power into balance. Considing the likely changes in the structure of international system, one can presuppose that three political units may rise to great-power rank: Germany or a West European state, Japan and China. Despite all the progress achieved by these countries, for some years to come, the United States will be the leading counrty economically as well as militarily.
- Topic:
- Cold War, International Political Economy, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, and Germany