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171. Turkmenistan and Central Asia after Niyazov

Author:
Stephen Blank
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Sapirmurat Niyazov ruled Turkmenistan, a small Central Asian country with enormous natural gas holdings, like a sultan or latter-day Stalin. Therefore his sudden death on December 21, 2006, opened the way not just to a domestic power struggle, but also to fears of instability in Turkmenistan and Central Asia, and to a major international struggle among the great powers—Russia, China, Iran, and the United States—for influence over the new leadership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Islam
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Iran, Central Asia, Asia, and Turkmenistan

172. Who Rules Ahmadinejad's Iran?

Author:
Hesham Sallam
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran's recent detention of 15 British sailors and marines, captured in the contested waters of the Shatt al-Arab near the Iranian coast, has exacerbated tensions between the United States and Iran. The incident also underscored the opacity of the Iranian political system; it is unclear on whose directive the Iranian navy acted. With U.S.–Iranian relations already strained due to the Islamic Republic's activities in Iraq and its nuclear ambitions, understanding the Islamic Republic's power structure and decision-making processes has become increasingly important. To answer the question "Who rules Ahmadinejad's Iran?" USIP's Iran Policy Forum convened an off-the-record discussion with leading specialists on Iranian politics. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the main points made during the discussion and does not represent the views of USIP, which does not advocate specific policies.
Topic:
Government and Islam
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

173. Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Parliamentary elections across the Middle East have led to a wave of Islamist victories. Islamist parties typically boast leaders who are young and dynamic, with strong ties to the community; their party organizations brim with energy and ideas, attracting those who seek change. The U.S. government has quietly engaged moderate Islamist parties for several years. U.S. engagement has been most successful where democratic reform is already underway and where the government is genuinely committed to political opening. Other factors include the Islamist parties' political sophistication, popular credibility, and openness to working with U.S. organizations. A successful Islamist engagement strategy both empowers individuals and strengthens institutions to yield greater transparency, more accountability, and shifts toward greater moderation. Of the three cases addressed in this paper—Morocco, Jordan, and Yemen—Morocco appears to hold the greatest promise for U.S. engagement with moderate Islamists. Meanwhile, Jordan and Yemen offer important though limited instances of success. U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East affects the ability of U.S. organizations to promote democracy there. At times, Islamist parties have cut off contact with U.S. democracy promoters to protest specific aspects of U.S. foreign policy, such as the war in Iraq. Ultimately, U.S. engagement of moderate Islamists must be understood within the broader political context of the ideological battle in the Muslim world over the place of Islam in public life. Moderate Islamist parties that reject violence and practice democratic ideals are an important counterweight to Islamist extremism, and their work should be encouraged.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Jordan, and Morocco

174. Ayatollah Sistani and the Democratization of Post-Ba'athist Iraq

Author:
Babak Rahimi
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since spring 2003, Sistani has become the preeminent and best financed of the grand ayatollahs remaining in the city of Najaf—and by extension, in Iraq. He remains one of the most powerful figures in Iraq and he brings the Shi'is closer together across the greater Middle East. Since 1997, the Internet has increased the size and the prestige of Sistani's social organization to an astonishing degree on a global basis. Like his father, Sistani is an adherent of a democratic Shi'i tradition that dates back to the Persian Constitutional Revolution of 1906 to 1911 and continued with the Khatami reformist movement (1997–2005). As the general representative of the Hidden Imam, quietist Sistani can remain totally aloof from all political matters, while at times of perceived moral decadence, political corruption, great injustice, or foreign occupation, he can become more active in political affairs by engaging in activities such as consultation, guidance, and even the promotion of sacred norms in public life. Sistani's religious network is increasingly becoming an important source of local governance in southern Iraq, where many Iraqis are hired and at times agree to conduct duties that are usually carried out by the state. Sistani's insistence on recognizing Islam as a fundamental component of the Iraqi constitution is not intended to make Iraq an Islamist state based on juridical sharia strictures, but rather to limit the total secularization of the constitution, which would deprive a Muslim country of an “authentic” national identity based on its Islamic heritage. Sistani could contribute to reducing sectarian tensions by working with other Sunni and Shi'i religious leaders (including tribal leaders) to organize a National Reconciliation Initiative in order to display a united, powerful Sunni-Shi'i front with an emphasis on common Islamic ideals; to express condemnation of anti-Shi'i Wahabi extremism and anti-Sunni Shi'i radicalism; and to form communal solidarity through the ceremonial process of intersectarian group gatherings. Sistani remains a key religious figure who has influence as a peacemaker and mediator among various Shi'i factions and ethnic groups in Basra and Kirkuk that are competing for economic and territorial dominance in the northern and southern regions of the country. As long as the state army is unable to independently fight off the Sunni insurgency and Shi'i militias, it is highly unlikely that Sistani will call for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Sistani is mainly concerned with maintaining stability in the region while rejecting any form of U.S. military adventurism that could seriously endanger the integrity and autonomy of Muslim countries in the greater Middle East. Although Sistani is still a powerful figure within Iraq, his influence has diminished since the bombing of the Shi'i shrine in Samarra in February 2006 and the ensuing increase in Sunni–Shi'i violence. Washington should recognize that until the sectarian warfare subsides, there is no effective way for Sistani to become involved in the Iraqi political process. However, Washington should engage Sistani now, because of the positive role he would have in the democratization of Iraq if the sectarian tensions subside.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Islam
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Kirkuk, and Basra

175. Islam, Militarism, and the 2007-2008 Elections in Pakistan

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The year 2007 will be crucial for the future of democracy in Pakistan. If the election schedule announced by Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sher Afghan Niazi is followed, presidential elections will be held in the fall and the general and provincial elections will be held on January 30, 2008. All these elections will be carefully scrutinized by many in the United States and elsewhere, not least because they will include, among other political forces, a coalition of religious political parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). Many commentators in the West believe that the Pakistani regime will portray the elections as a contest between Islamists represented by the MMA and the enlightened moderation of President Pervez Musharraf and the Pakistan Army. However, the reality is that the Islamic forces will not be a defining factor. They are a dependent variable whose power is largely determined by the army. The only real questions are whether the army's tactics for manipulating the 2007–2008 elections will differ from those used in 2002 and what role the Islamic parties will play in the process.
Topic:
Civil Society, Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

176. Mapping the Jihadist Threat: The War on Terror Since 9/11

Author:
Kurt M. Campbell and Willow Darsie
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously bemoaned the challenges of measuring success in a long twilight struggle with Islamic fundamentalists. There are the “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” that confront the United States in the most unfamiliar set of foreign policy challenges in the country's history. In addition to the difficulties of establishing “metrics” – as Rumsfeld would put it – in our war on terror, there is also the intrinsically related and perhaps more vexing question of how the global ideological virus of Islamic fundamentalism is morphing and evolving. An influential and well-funded cohort of radicalized Islamists, seizing upon an unyielding interpretation of religious text (a kind of Koranic original intent), has been at war with the West for nearly a generation, and the pace of operations globally is accelerating. According to recently released U.S. government reports, there has been a sharp surge in the number of global terrorist attacks in recent years, a tally substantially comprised of incidents initiated by Islamist instigators. Taken in its totality with all its many manifestations, the jihadist challenge stretches from the Taliban strongholds in the rugged Afghan mountains and the dense jungle hideouts of the Philippines, to the ornate mosques of Saudi Arabia, from a quiet neighborhood in Leeds, England to, just possibly, a place near you.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

177. Research Cultures in Local and Global Contexts: The Case of Middle East Gender Studies

Author:
Zeinab Abul-Magd and Aurelie Evangeline Perrier
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
Abstract:
Through a critical dialogue, this workshop aimed to trace the various changes, shifts in intellectual paradigms, and transformations in both global and local contexts that have affected the growing field of Middle East Gender and Women's studies in the US and the Middle East. It sought to understand how the particularity of a researcher's milieu-made up of sociological, intellectual, political and cultural components interacting with one another to form what we term “a research culture”- have informed the approaches, agendas, and conclusions of scholars on gender-related issues. In particular the workshop explored the differences between and challenges to Middle East gender research in the US academy and in the academies of the Middle East.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Islam, and Culture
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

178. Uncovered: Arab Journalists Scrutinize Their Profession

Author:
Hafez al-Mirazi, Thomas Gorguissian, Rami Khouri, and Salameh Nematt
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
Abstract:
This conference is entitled “Uncovered: Arab Journalists Scrutinize Their Profession” because we want to dissect, uncover, and analyze the state of the Arab media. Four distinguished Arab journalists will lead us in that quest. They are insiders, people who really know the business, and I anticipate hearing some very insightful comments and views.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

179. Saudi Arabia's Debate on Women Driving Masks a Deeper Divide

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During the last several months, the question of whether women in Saudi Arabia should be allowed to drive has become a lively topic of debate within the kingdom. Support for the issue has come from the newly enthroned King Abdullah; the most prominent opponent is the long-serving interior minister, Prince Nayef. The men are viewed as political rivals frequently at odds over a range of policies. Increasingly, women driving seems a metaphor for the series of security, economic, and educational challenges facing the kingdom—and therefore a tempting policy opportunity for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Gender Issues, Government, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

180. Iran's Security Sector: An Overview

Author:
Wilfried Buchta
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The intention of this paper is to give an overview of the internal structure of the security sector of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), one of the few states in the Islamic world in which in general the security sector is submitted to the control of the civilian leadership. This paper will not deal with the issues of WMD, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's open and covert support for militant Islamic groups abroad, the system's fight against exiled militant opposition groups or Tehran's policy towards Iraq prior to and after the US invasion, although some aspects of the security sectors' tasks are connected to these issues. Instead the paper will focus on the relationship between civilian leadership and the influential heads of the different branches of the security sector, a relationship which is extremely complex and often defies explanation. Therefore it is vital to offer some explanatory remarks on the overall political structure of the system and its main features.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Israel