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82. A Markov Switching Approach to Herding
- Author:
- Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Arne C. Klein
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Existing models of market herding suffer from several drawbacks. Measures that assume herd behaviour is constant over time or independent of the economy are not only economically unreasonable, but describe the data poorly. First, if returns are stationary, then a two-regime model is required to describe the data. Second, existing models of time-varying herding cannot be estimated from daily or weekly data, and are unable to accommodate factors that explain changes in this behaviour. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a Markov switching herding model. By means of time-varying transition probabilities, the model is able to link variations in herding behaviour to proxies for sentiment or the macroeconomic environment. The evidence for the US stock market reveals that during periods of high volatility, investors disproportionately rely on fundamentals rather than on market consensus.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
83. The Illicit Trade Conflict Connection: Insights from U.S. History
- Author:
- Peter Andreas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- A great deal of scholarly and policy attention has been given in recent years to the relationship between illicit trade and armed conflict. Much of the focus has been on how violent non-state actors have exploited illicit commerce to fund and sustain rebellion. It is commonly asserted that this is a distinctly post-Cold War phenomenon—even a defining characteristic of so-called "new wars."1 A frequent argument, for example, is that in the absence of formal external sponsorship from the United States or the former Soviet Union, insurgents have increasingly turned to alternative forms of material support. This includes illicit exports dubbed "conflict commodities," such as drugs, timber, ivory, diamonds, and so on. Thus, partly thanks to the campaigns of international NGOs such as Global Witness, diamonds from conflict zones in West Africa have been labeled "blood diamonds" (inspiring a James Bond movie and other major Hollywood productions).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Crime, International Trade and Finance, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Soviet Union, and West Africa
84. Crucial Collaborators or Petty Players? The Globalization of R and the Rise of China and India
- Author:
- Andrew B. Kennedy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Course Pack
- Institution:
- Center for the Advanced Study of India
- Abstract:
- In recent decades, research and development has become a key new arena of globalization. Whereas multinational corporations once conducted R primarily in their home countries, it is now often dispersed across multiple locations around the world. Has this process transformed economic ties between the world's dominant state and its would-be rising powers in ways that imply an important power shift? Focusing on China and India's growing collaboration with the U.S., this paper argues that it has not. China and India remain considerably more reliant on the globalization of R than the U.S. does, and this remains a potential source of leverage for Washington. This vulnerability mainly reflects the fact that U.S. R investments in China and India are far more important for these two Asian countries than they are for the U.S. These investments loom larger in the Chinese and Indian innovation systems than they do in their American counterpart, and it is difficult to imagine any country substituting for the U.S. in this regard. In contrast, the U.S. cannot derive a great deal of leverage as a platform for R Both China and India are considerably less dependent on the U.S. in this respect.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and India
85. Financial Services and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
- Author:
- Karel Lannoo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- It is still an unresolved question whether a process for financial services regulatory cooperation and convergence will be included in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).From a n end-user's perspective, it could be argued that its inclusion could be an opportunity not only as regards product choice, but also to improve the consumer or investor protection regulatory environment on both sides of the Atlantic. The inclusion would also be in line with the assessments made by both the EU and the US that the G-20 agenda has been incorporated in local legislation and that both regimes are thus 'equivalent'.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
86. Financial regulation and the G20
- Author:
- Hugh Jorgensen, Mike Callaghan, Stephen Pickford, Richard Gray, Steven Bardy, Graham Hodges, and Ross Buckley
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- This issue of the Monitor canvases the role of the G20 in strengthening financial regulation. It contains articles by Hugh Jorgensen (Lowy Institute), Stephen Pickford (Chatham House), Richard Gray (Westpac), myself, Steven Bardy (Australian Securities and Investment Commission), Ross Buckley (University of New South Wales) and Graham Hodges (ANZ). It also includes a summary of the discussion at a regional 'Think 20' seminar recently held at the Lowy Institute.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
87. Trade and the G20
- Author:
- John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, and Brett Williams
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
88. Federated Defense Project
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States has long emphasized the desirability of working with allies and partners to meet pressing security challenges. Indeed, many of our most vexing security challenges-such as terrorism, threats to freedom of the seas and air, and cyber threats-are best met with multilateral action. At a time when the United States and many of its allies and partners are reluctant to increase defense and security investments, working together is of increasing importance. This is perhaps most evident in the Middle East and Asia, where real and potential threats to U.S. and partner security are high and our interests great.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Asia
89. Ripping into TTIP? Debates Surrounding the Upcoming EU–U.S. Negotiations
- Author:
- Maya Rostowska
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The outcome of negotiations for a transatlantic trade deal depends largely on the stance of politicians and stakeholders in the EU and the U.S. An overview of the debate on either side of the Atlantic reveals both sides' respective interests and suggests which areas will prove particularly difficult to negotiate. These include public procurement provisions, data privacy, agricultural issues, and the financial services sector.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States
90. Turkey-U.S. Relations: Towards a Multidimensional Partnership
- Author:
- Eyüp Ersoy and Mehmet Yegin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
- Abstract:
- Unlike other studies on Turkey-U.S. relations, this report examines the key actors influential on U.S. policy and their perspectives about Turkey, theoretically discusses the regional aspects in Turkey-U.S. relations, and finally emphasizes the economic and social dimensions of the bilateral relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, and India