Search

Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography United States

621. Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade balance, U.K. inflation and real national income, and the U.S./U.K. exchange rate help clarify the issues involved.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

622. Patience, Persistence, and Welfare Costs of Incomplete Markets in Open Economies

Author:
Jinill Kim, Andrew Levin, and Sunghyun Henry Kim
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the welfare implications of alternative financial market structures in a two-country endowment economy model. In particular, we obtain an analytic expression for the expected lifetime utility of the representative household when sovereign bonds are the only internationally traded asset, and we compare this welfare level with that obtained under complete asset markets. The welfare cost of incomplete markets is negligible if agents are very patient and shocks are not very persistent, but this cost is dramatically larger if agents are relatively impatient and shocks are highly persistent. For realistic cases in which agents are very patient and shocks are highly persistent (that is, the discount factor and the first-order autocorrelation are both near unity), the welfare cost of incomplete markets is highly sensitive to the specific values of these parameters. Finally, using a non-linear solution algorithm, we confirm that a two-country production economy with endogenous labor supply has qualitatively similar welfare properties.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

623. Linkage and Legalism in Institutions: Evidence From Agricultural Trade Negotiations

Author:
Christina Davis
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In a comparative study of Japanese and European trade policy, this paper explains how the institutional context of negotiations affects political outcomes. I examine two pathways by which negotiation structure promotes liberalization: issue linkage and legal framing. Broadening stakes through issue linkage mobilizes domestic lobbying for liberalization. Use of GATT/WTO trade law in dispute settlement legitimizes arguments favoring liberalization. This study on international institutions addresses the theoretical debates in the field regarding how interdependence and the legalization of international affairs change the nature of state interaction.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, and Israel

624. Caribbean Tourism: Igniting the Engines of Sustainable Growth

Author:
Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Tourism drives economic growth in ways that make it one of the best engines for job creation and development for poor countries that possess natural beauty and relevant infrastructure. The industry is highly labor intensive and encourages entrepreneurship. Under its ambit, property owners, restaurants, and local suppliers of goods and services, among others, develop the habits of risk taking without which no economy can realize its full potential. Tourism holds out the prospect of a better life for those stakeholders who make money from it. Not unlike trade, it improves an economy's competitiveness. Trade does so because it stimulates local suppliers to match the quality and variety of imported goods. Tourism does so because returning travelers to a destination demand the goods and services they have seen in other countries (Elliott 2001).
Topic:
Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

625. Protest and Collaboration: Transnational Civil Society Networks and the Politics of Summitry and Free Trade in the Americas

Author:
Patricio Korzeniewicz and William C. Smith
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper examines the politics of hemispheric integration exemplified by the Summits of the Americas held in Miami (1994), Santiago (1998), and Quebec (2001) and the negotiations over the creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Our basic premise is that political and institutional arrangements articulating state, society, and economy in Latin America are currently in the midst of a process of reconfiguration unleashed by the acceleration of globalization and attendant crises of state-centered development strategies. More specifically, we believe the Americas are witnessing the emergence of an ensemble of new social and political actors, among the most salient of which are new social movements and civil society organizations (CSOs), organized in networks operating at the domestic, regional, and global levels.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, North America, and Miami

626. The Impact of MERCOSUR on the Automobile Industry

Author:
Jerry Haar and Thomas A. O'Keefe
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
A transformation of the automotive industry, particularly the segment involved in production of finished vehicles, has taken place in the Southern Common Market (Mercado Común del Sur/Mercado Comum do Sul—MERCOSUR/MER-COSUL) region of South America, at a time when MERCOSUR member states opened their economies to global competition and to participation in an ambitious subregional economic integration project. This Agenda Paper provides an overview of the factors that have contributed to this recent industry transformation. The paper also examines the factors involved in the formal incorporation of the automotive sector into the MERCOSUR project and discusses the impact this development is like-ly have on the subregional automobile industry,
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, and North America

627. Preferential Treatment in Trade: Is There Any Room Left in the Americas?

Author:
Fernando Masi
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the costs and benefits of changes brought by the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) on special and differential treatment (S); shows how these changes affected the new regional integration processes in the American continent; and examines whether this issue is still a priority of developing countries' agendas. Large concessions offered by developing countries in exchange for access to markets automatically led to “trade graduation.” Thus, S has lost its former significance among developing countries. Moreover, nonreciprocal treatment was retained for least developed countries, which do not even enjoy this type of treatment under the so-called “new trade-related issues” of services, investment, and intellectual property rights.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, America, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

628. Geography, Markets, Resources, and Development: The Assets of the Americas Revisited

Author:
L. Ronald Scheman
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In May 1996, the price of copper crashed from US$2,600 to $1,775 per ton. The Sumitomo Corporation of Japan acknowledged unprecedented losses of $2.6 billion from unauthorized trading by its chief copper trader, one of the faceless manipulators of the international commodities markets, Yasuo Hamanaka. Among the major banks caught in this modern variation of the Ponzi scheme were J.P. Morgan and the London Metal Exchange. Chile, whose economy was highly dependent on income from the commodity, was quickly and painfully reminded that the highly leveraged markets on which it depended, even in the hands of the most reputable institutions, are fragile and subject to unexpected forces beyond its control. Copper prices began a downward spiral, and they have not yet recovered.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Caribbean

629. Free Trade and Worker Displacement: The Trade Adjustment Assistance Act and the Case of NAFTA

Author:
Jerry Haar and Antonio Garrastazu
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Trade liberalization, a fundamental feature of U.S. economic policy since the end of the Second World War, has increasingly become a contentious domestic political issue during the last decade. Proponents and opponents of free trade transcend political party affiliation, industry, occupation, geographical locale, income level, age, and other socioeconomic and demographic factors. In addition, the U.S. public and its leaders for the most part hold qualified, mixed, or inconsistent opinions about trade liberalization and the larger and rapidly increasing phenomenon known as globalization. In a February 9-14, 2000, nationwide poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates, a majority of respondents (64 percent compared to 27 percent) stated that free trade with other countries is good for the United States. On the other hand, an NBC News/ W all Street Journal poll several months later asked interviewees to respond to the following statement: “Foreign trade has been bad for the U.S. economy because cheap imports from abroad have hurt wages and cost jobs here at home.” Forty-eight percent of the respondents answered that it has been “bad” and 34 percent “good.”
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

630. International — IMF Crisis Decisions

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The IMF's major shareholders have shown little willingness to provide new funds to Argentina. In deferring further assistance, the United States and other G7 shareholders have set limits on the international financial community's role in resolving a major emerging market financial crisis. The slowing global economy could provide an early test of these limits as it exposes weaknesses in other emerging markets — particularly those with larger geopolitical profiles than Argentina. Argentina's predicament highlights the Fund's paradox in wanting, on the one hand, to facilitate orderly resolution of crises (and prevent calamitous social impacts) and, on the other hand, to encourage markets to appropriately price risk by proving that non-optimal outcomes are possible. The risk of such outcomes is the basis upon which investors demand higher premiums from emerging market borrowers.
Topic:
International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Argentina