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41. Vladimir Putin and Russia's Oil Policy

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The honeymoon between the Western oil industry and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended in mid-2003 when the Russian procurator's office began arresting Yukos executives. The Kremlin's seemingly sudden attack on private industry surprised the international business community that was expecting investment-friendly behavior from the Russian leadership. After assuming power in late 1999, Putin quickly signaled interest in developing a strong energy partnership with the United States, including increased opportunities for Western firms to invest in Russia's oil and gas industry.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

42. CATO Institute: Who Killed Telecom? Why the Official Story Is Wrong

Author:
Lawrence Gasman
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the mid-1990s as it seemed that lawmakers were about to abandon much of the regulatory apparatus that had hampered the telecommunications industry since the 1930s, the telecom equipment industry began to boom, helped in part by the rise of the Internet. The deregulatory trend led ultimately to the 1996 Telecom Act, and soon the architects and implementers of that act were congratulating themselves on a job well done. We were supposedly building a new telecom infrastructure fit for the information age.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

43. Opening Opportunities, Building Ownership: Fulfilling the Promise of Microenterprise in the United States

Author:
Elaine L. Edgcomb and Joyce A. Klein
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The notion that a person can turn a dream into a small business by applying healthy doses of ingenuity, elbow grease and grit has resonated with Americans from the earliest days of this nation. Indeed, there is something so intrinsically appealing about that scenario that more than 22 million Americans are small business owners today—including some 20 million who operate "micro"—or very small—enterprises.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States and America

44. Government and the Economy: The World Wars

Author:
Robert Higgs
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
U.S participation in the world wars gave rise to massive increases in the extent of government involvement in economic life and brought about many important, enduring changes in the government\'s relations with private economic actors. In both wars, the federal government expanded enormously the amount of its expenditure, taxation, and regulation as well as its direct participation in productive activities, creating what contemporaries described during World War I as "war socialism." Each of these great experiences left a multitude of legacies—fiscal, institutional, and ideological—many of which continue to shape the country\'s political economy. As William Graham Sumner wisely observed, "it is not possible to experiment with a society and just drop the experiment whenever we choose. The experiment enters into the life of the society and never can be got out again" (Sumner 1934, II, 473). The world wars certainly are among the greatest "experiments" that American society ever endured.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

45. Is Cybersecurity a Public Good? Evidence from the Financial Services Industry

Author:
Benjamin Powell
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States heightened concerns about vulnerabilities to future attacks. One new area of concern is cyberterrorism: the possibility of terrorists using computers to attack our critical infrastructure electronically. The government has made efforts to better secure its own computer networks to prevent terrorists from hacking into computer systems in the Pentagon, FBI, and other government agencies. Increasingly, however, the government has been concerned that the private sector is vulnerable to cyberterrorism. The private sector owns approximately 85 percent of the critical infrastructure in the U.S. (Deloitte 2004 p. 15). There are concerns that a cyber attack on dams, trains, electrical grids, pipeline pumps, communications networks, or the financial services industry could cause significant physical or economic damage to the U.S. The policy question being asked is whether private businesses, when left to their own devices, provide enough cybersecurity or if some form of government involvement is justified.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and United Nations

46. A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks

Author:
Neville Francis, Michael T. Owyang, and Jennifer T. Roush
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Recent empirical studies using infinite horizon long-run restrictions question the validity of the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis. These results have met with their own controversy, stemming from their sensitivity to changes in model specification and the general poor performance of long run restrictions in Monte Carlo experiments. We propose a alternative identification that maximizes the contribution of technology shocks to the forecast error variance of labor productivity at a long, but finite horizon. In small samples, our identification outperforms its infinite horizon counterpart by producing less biased impulse responses and technology shocks that are more highly correlated with the technology shocks from the underlying model. For U.S. data, we show that the negative hours response is not robust to allowing a greater role for non-technology shocks in the forecast error variance share at a ten year horizon.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

47. Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices: Some New Evidence

Author:
Jaime Marquez, Mario Marazzi, Nathan Sheets, Joseph Gagnon, Robert J. Vigfusson, Jon Faust, Robert F. Martin, Trevor Reeve, and John Rogers
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper documents a sustained decline in exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices, from above 0.5 during the 1980s to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.2 during the last decade. This decline in the pass-through coefficient is robust to the measure of foreign prices that is included in the regression (i.e., CPI versus PPI), whether the estimation is done in levels or differences, and whether U.S. prices are included as an explanatory variable. Notably, the largest estimates of pass-through are obtained when commodity prices are excluded from the regression. In this case, the pass-through coefficient captures both the direct effect of the exchange rate on import prices and an indirect effect operating through changes in commodity prices. Our work indicates that an increasing share of exchange rate pass-through has occurred through this commodity-price channel in recent years. While the source of the decline in passthrough is difficult to pin down with certainty, our work points to several factors, including the reduced share of (commodity-intensive) industrial supplies in U.S. imports and the increased presence of Chinese exporters in U.S. markets. We detect a particular step down in the passthrough coefficient around the time of the Asian financial crisis and document a shift in the export pricing behavior of emerging Asian firms around that time.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and China

48. Financial Market Developments and Economic Activity during Current Account Adjustments in Industrial Economies

Author:
Steven B. Kamin, Sylvain Leduc, and Hilary Croke
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Much has been written about prospects for U.S. current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a “disorderly correction”: a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices, and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the likelihood of the disorderly correction scenario, drawing on the experience of previous current account adjustments in industrial economies. We examined the paths of key economic performance indicators before, during, and after the onset of adjustment, building on the analysis of Freund (2000).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

49. Breaking Up Is Hard To Do: Global Co-dependency, Collective Action, and the Challenges of Global Adjustment

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Global imbalances have continued, indeed deepened, far longer than both researchers and pundits would have thought. On the US side, the current account deficit at about $630 billion (2004q1-3, AR) and 5.5 percent of GDP (2004q3) falls outside the oft-quoted range of 4-5 percent after which, research on industrial countries suggests, economic forces tend to narrow the imbalance. There is some-what less research on the persistence of global imbalances from the standpoint of the rest of the world, in part because individually most of those imbalances are not so notable. Clearly though, collectively growth in the rest of the world has come to be co-dependent on US demand patterns.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

50. Job Anxiety Is Real-And It's Global

Author:
Sandra Polaski
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
These are not normal times. Two changes in the past decade have produced a huge global oversupply of labor and intense competition for an expanding array of jobs. First, the Cold War's end threw millions of workers, who formerly produced only for the socialist bloc, onto the global labor market. And second, that market has become integrated by technological change that now permits outsourcing of service as well as manufacturing jobs. The current economic recovery will not solve the resulting global mismatch of supply and demand, and it cannot be addressed by the United States alone. Many current policies aggravate the problem. This paper proposes that the United States revise its policies and devote a concerted effort to get the major countries to work together to expand employment at that global level.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States