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642. Budget Crisis at the Door
- Author:
- C. Eugene Steuerle and Rudolph G. Penner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- In 1995 the Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform concluded that “If we do not plan for the future, entitlement spending promises will exceed financial resources in the next century. The current spending trend is unsustainable … If we fail to act, we have made a choice that threatens the economic future of our children and our nation” (U.S. Congress 1995). Now, well into the next century, we have still failed to act. Yet the problem not only remains, but in many ways has intensified simply because we are years closer to the day of reckoning. Relative to both available revenues and societal needs, we have promised more than we can afford to an elderly and fairly well-off near-elderly population that will soon grow very rapidly as the baby boomers retire and life expectancy continues to increase.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
643. Options to Finance the Additional War Costs
- Author:
- Leonard E. Burman and Jeff Rohaly
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- The President has requested an additional $87 billion to finance the war and reconstruction costs in Iraq. Commentators and some members of Congress have expressed an interest in options to offset these additional costs so as not to add on to the burgeoning budget deficit, which CBO estimates to be $480 billion in fiscal year 2004. This note considers four options to raise approximately enough revenue to finance the additional war costs. The estimates are approximate because they do not account for additional tax avoidance that higher rates might provoke, a significant factor in official revenue estimates.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
644. Trends in Naturalization
- Author:
- Michael E. Fix, Jeffrey S. Passel, and Kenneth Sucher
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- The Policy Imperative Naturalization is the gateway to citizenship for immigrants and to full membership and political participation in U.S. society. The importance of naturalization—and citizenship—has risen since the mid-1990s, when welfare and illegal immigration reform based access to public benefits and selected rights increasingly on citizenship.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States
645. The New Neighbors: A User's Guide to Data on Immigrants in U.S. Communities
- Author:
- Randy Capps, Michael E. Fix, Dan Perez-Lopez, and Jeffrey S. Passel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- Immigrant integration is now a key issue for communities across the nation. States and communities that had seen few immigrants as recently as 1990 are now welcoming new arrivals in unprecedented numbers. Although new immigrants continue to settle in the traditional U.S. centers of immigration—including California, Florida, New York, and Texas—the states with the currently fastest growing immigrant populations have not seen similar inflows for almost a century, if ever. According to the 2000 Census, these new destination states include North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee (at the top of the list) and other states in the Southeast, as well as states across the Midwest and up into the Pacific Northwest.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, California, Georgia, Texas, and Florida
646. Budget Blues: The Fiscal Outlook and Options for Reform
- Author:
- William G. Gale, Alan J. Auerbach, Peter Orszag, and Samuel R. Potter
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- Establishing a sustainable fiscal policy is central to the nation's long-term economic prospects, but requires a clear understanding of how past and current policies affect future resources. The federal budget should, but does not, provide this information, both because the task is difficult and current accounting practices are deficient. This paper shows that adjusting the official budget for many accounting and economic issues implies a bleak fiscal outlook that presents policymakers with difficult choices. We also explore options to restore fiscal sustainability directly and to improve the budget process that governs fiscal decisions.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
647. The Enron Debacle: Lessons for Tax Policy
- Author:
- Jane G. Gravelle
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- The Enron debacle had potential implications in three areas of tax policy: tax-favored retirement plans, stock options, and differences in book versus tax accounting. The most important issue relates to the increasing riskiness of retirement plans that (1) can pay in a lump sum amount, (2) are of the defined contribution variety, and (3) may be excessively concentrated in employer stock. Proposals to remedy this issue even in a limited way may be unsuccessful if they do not address the especially favorable tax treatment of employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs). Most stock options do not benefit from preferential treatment, although for both book and tax purposes it may be desirable (and feasible) to recognize compensation payments at the time of grant. Stock options may not be accomplishing their purposes efficiently, and special benefits (such as those for qualified stock options) might either be reconsidered or restricted to plans with desirable features. The spectacle of a purportedly profitable company paying little or no tax has become a common phenomenon. The Enron case suggests the need for more disclosure regarding the sources of book versus tax differences, if not some substantive corporate tax reforms.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
648. How Are Immigrants Faring After Welfare Reform?: Preliminary Evidence from Los Angeles and New York City - Final Report
- Author:
- Randy Capps, Michael Fix, Dan Perez-Lopez, Jeffrey Passel, Leighton Ku, Chris Furgiuele, Rajeev Ramchand, and Scott McNiven
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- In 1996, debates about welfare reform and immigration converged and reshaped federal policies about the eligibility of legally admitted immigrants for means-tested public benefits programs, including the Food Stamp Program (FSP), Medicaid, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). Before the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) was enacted in 1996, legal immigrants were eligible for benefits on terms similar to those of native-born citizens. The new law significantly limited the eligibility of legally-admitted immigrants for means-tested federal benefit programs, particularly immigrants entering the United States after the welfare reform law was passed in August 1996.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Welfare, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States
649. Monetary Policy Rules and the International Monetary Transmission
- Author:
- Leonor Coutinho
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses alternative monetary policy rules for the ECB, using a two "country" model of the euro area and the US, that assumes monopolistic competition, sticky prices and optimizing agents. The alternative rules analyzed for the ECB are ranked by their ability to stabilize consumption, output, and inflation and maximize consumers' welfare. The analysis contributes toward understanding the trade-offs faced by policymakers in open economies and provides some support for the current design of the ECB's operational framework. The results suggest that stabilizing money-growth, in addition to inflation, gives an additional degree of freedom to stabilize output. Although price stability is likely to remain the primary objective of the ECB, monetary policy must "without prejudice of price stability (...) support the general economic policies in the Community..." (Article 2). Hence monitoring money, under certain assumptions about the shocks hitting the economy, may deliver a better outcome in terms of output stabilization which should allow the ECB to fulfill its secondary but nonetheless important commitment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
650. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries
- Author:
- Roberto Perotti
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on GDP, prices and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows:1 ) The estimated effects of fiscal policy on GDP tend to be small: positive government spending multipliers larger than 1 tend to be the exception; 2) The effects of fiscal policy on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; 3) Under plausible values of the price elasticity, government spending has positive effects on the price level, although usually small; 4) Government spending shocks have significant effects on the nominal and real short interest rate, but of varying signs; 5) In the post-1980 period, net tax shocks have positive short run effects on the nominal interest rate, and typically negative or zero effects on prices; 6) The US is an outlier in many dimensions; responses to fiscal shocks estimated on US data are often not representative of the average OECD country included in this sample.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe