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552. Radical Departure: Toward A Practical Peace in Iraq
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The key to enabling total US troop withdrawal from Iraq within 400 days is achieving a political accord with Sunni leaders at all levels and with Iraq's neighbors - especially Syria and Iran. The proximal aim would be to immediately lower the level of conflict inside Iraq by constricting both active and passive support for the insurgency, inside and outside the country. This would allow the United States to shift resources to the training mission and to adopt other de-escalatory measures - most importantly: a withdrawal time line. The strategic price of this diplomatic initiative would be a return to self-governance in Sunni areas, a guaranteed level of representation for these areas in the national assembly, an end to broad-brush measures of de-Baathification, an amnesty for most indigenous insurgents and for most former Baathists, and a de-escalation of the US confrontation with Syria and Iran regarding a range of issues. In conjunction with these diplomatic initiatives, the United States would announce a tentative time line for withdrawal of its troops from Iraq -- associated with training milestones. Also: US forces would end major offensive sweeps inside the country, adopt a defensive posture, and shift the emphasis of their activity to training Iraqi security forces. Finally: the Iraqi government would re-activate portions of the old army -- partly as a confidence-building measure, but also in order to (i) rob insurgent organizations of their recruiting base, (ii) augment the power of the new Iraqi security forces, and (iii) produce a better ethnic balance in the new forces (which are currently dominated by Kurds and Shiites). As new forces increase in capacity, US forces would be removed, further reducing a stimulus of insurgent action. Four hundred days - 57 weeks - is sufficient time to complete several Iraqi training cycles, including field exercises for many units at the battalion and brigade levels. Some division level training also can occur. Given sufficient resources (24,000 training personnel), 100,000 Iraqi security personnel can receive remedial training and another 80,000 new personnel can be trained and exercised during this period. Together with the full provision of all appropriate equipment, this development effort can yield Iraqi security forces that are several times more capable than those it controls in mid-2005. After thirteen months, the only foreign military assets remaining in Iraq would be a small monitoring and training mission with a security detail: less than 10,000 foreign civilian and military personnel in all. US troops should constitute no more than one-third of the military component -- that is, approximately 2,000 troops. This mission should be conducted under a three-year UN mandate and joint NATO-international command. In addition, the United States might maintain a 25,000-person rapid reaction task force in the region, but outside either Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
553. In Liberty's Shadow: US Detention of Asylum Seekers in the Era of Homeland Security
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- When I set foot on American soil, I had finally reached the land of liberty, the land of peace, and I had a strong feeling of gratitude toward the Most High who had allowed me to escape death and to reach a life of freedom…. After completing my statement [at the airport]…[an] officer arrived with handcuffs. Then he handcuffed my wrists, but I sincerely thought this was a case of mistaken identity. Later on he explained to me that this was the established procedure. We left for [a county] prison. They put me in a cell where it was really cold, and I had no blanket with me. The idea of a land of liberty was beginning to be cast into serious doubt in my mind.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Human Rights, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
554. Monitoring the presidential debates: Post-debate panels did not focus on hard issues
- Author:
- Senja Post
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Media Tenor International
- Abstract:
- After the third debate, network and cable news commentators and their expert guests differed in their opinions on who did better, after having been largely in agreement after the first and second debate. Media Tenor's Slant -o- meter analyzed the commentary following the debate on six TV channels. While ABC and NBC were moderate in their ratings of Kerry and Bush, CBS, FOX, CNN and PBS commentators were more vocal about their dislikes for one or the other of the candidates. Fox News presented the most favorable coverage of George W. Bush's performance and the most negative comments on John Kerry. While positive reports on Bush exceeded negative reports by almost 43%, the coverage of Kerry had an overall negative balance of 15%. Similarly, PBS's commentary featured 6.6% more positive than negative statements on Bush, while , on balance, comments on Kerry were 13% more negative.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Welfare, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
555. Monitoring the Presidential Debates: Real-time Content Analysis Bush and Kerry Score with Clear-Cut Proposals
- Author:
- Senja Post, Markus Rettich, and Roland Schatz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Media Tenor International
- Abstract:
- In tonight's TV debate, neither of the candidates managed to gain an upper hand in the overall discussion. There were no significant surprises on how each candidate views the issues that were addressed. Based on Bob Schieffer's excellent moderation, the debate was able to create a very clear image (almost 80% of the content was issue–focused) on the different approaches Kerry and Bush will use in tackling challenges in healthcare, economics, social issues and domestic security.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Welfare, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
556. Monitoring the Presidential Debates: How the debates Affected the Candidates' Image on TV News
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Media Tenor International
- Abstract:
- Compared to last week's commentary, ABC increased its positive coverage of Bush, NBC was more balanced and CBS reduced the level of positive commentary on Kerry. CNN again rated both candidates positively (but Kerry much more so than Bush) while PBS broadcast a more negative evaluation of Bush and Kerry. On the whole, Kerry came across in a more positive light, but is very interesting to look at the difference between the major networks vs. cable networks and the public broadcasters. On NBC and CBS, Kerry was seen as the clear 'winner.' In the other news outlets, both candidates were rated either positively or negatively.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
557. Report on First 2004 Presidential Debate
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Media Tenor International
- Abstract:
- And the winner is . . . Kerry needed a clear victory in the first TV debate to gain momentum. This was not apparent. The burden on proof was clearly on Kerry to attack Bush's reputation and turn the line of argument to his favor. But the incumbent was equally vigorous in pointing out his achievements – in Iraq, in his support for the troops and in the fight against terrorism. Bush successfully cornered Kerry on flip–flopping issue. Kerry's explanations of his policy standpoints and voting records ultimately proved ineffective in countering Bush's charges of inconsistency. It was Kerry's goal to present himself as a viable alternative – this could not be seen. Therefore: a draw. Which in the end helps Bush, not Kerry.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
558. Corporate Governance and the Shareholder Base
- Author:
- Francis E. Warnock and Karl V. Lins
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper uses a sample of 4,410 firms from 29 countries to investigate the relation between corporate governance and the shareholder base. In contrast to previous work, our results strongly support the notion that poor corporate governance, at both the firm and country level, negatively impacts the willingness of foreign investors to hold a firm's equity. Specifically, we find that firms whose managers have sufficiently high control rights that they may reasonably be expected to expropriate minority equity investors attract significantly less U.S. investment, especially in countries with poor external governance. Our findings suggest that the prices U.S. investors are asked to pay for firms with poor governance are not low enough to fully compensate them for expected expropriation or increased estimation risk associated with expected poor disclosure by these firms. Because prior research shows that a smaller shareholder base is associated with a lower firm value, our results are consistent with the notion that the shareholder base represents an important channel through which poor expected corporate governance contributes to a reduction in firm value.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
559. Look at Me Now: The Role of Cross-Listing in Attracting U.S. Investors
- Author:
- Francis E. Warnock, John Ammer, Sara B. Holland, and David C. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We use a comprehensive 1997 survey to examine U.S. investors' preferences for foreign equities. We document a variety of firm characteristics that can influence U.S. investment, but the most important determinant is whether the stock is cross-listed on a U.S. exchange. Our selection bias-corrected estimates imply that firms that cross-list can increase their U.S. holdings by 8 to 11 percent of their market capitalization, roughly doubling the amount held without cross-listing. All else equal, we find that firms experience smaller increases in U.S. shareholdings upon cross-listing if they are Canadian, from English speaking countries, are members of the MSCI World index, or had higher quality accounting standards prior to crosslisting. We argue that these findings suggest that improvements in information production explain U.S. investors' attraction to foreign stocks that cross-list in the United States.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
560. PPP Rules, Macroeconomic (In)stability and Learning
- Author:
- Luis-Felipe Zanna
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Governments in emerging economies have pursued real exchange rate targeting through Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rules that link the nominal depreciation rate to either the deviation of the real exchange rate from its long run level or to the difference between the domestic and the foreign CPI-inflation rates. In this paper we disentangle the conditions under which these rules may lead to endogenous fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations in a small open economy that faces nominal rigidities. We find that besides the specification of the rule, structural parameters such as the share of traded goods (that measures the degree of openness of the economy) and the degrees of imperfect competition and price stickiness in the non-traded sector play a crucial role in the determinacy of equilibrium. To evaluate the relevance of the real (in)determinacy results we pursue a learnability (E-stability) analysis for the aforementioned PPP rules. We show that for rules that guarantee a unique equilibrium, the fundamental solution that represents this equilibrium is learnable in the E-stability sense. Similarly we show that for PPP rules that open the possibility of sunspot equilibria, a common factor representation that describes these equilibria is also E-stable. In this sense sunspot equilibria and therefore aggregate instability are more likely to occur due to PPP rules than previously recognized.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States