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541. Turbulent Transition in Iraq: Can It Succeed?

Author:
Judith S. Yaphe
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
One year after liberation, most Iraqis are impatient with the military occupation of their country. Although grateful for the removal of Saddam Hussein's cruel and repressive regime, many assumed the United States and its coalition members would soon go home and leave them to sort out their political, economic, and military fate. The war, after all, had been fought to liberate Iraqis from political tyranny, not to defeat the Iraqi people. Both U.S. and Iraqi expectations were high that the transition from oppression to democracy would be smooth and quick and that Iraqi political elites would move swiftly to ensure democratic rule.
Topic:
Government and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Arabia

542. China Brief, Hu Jintao's Move to Consolidate Power

Author:
Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Dennis J. Blasko, and Zhu Feng
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
President and Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman Hu Jintao has moved swiftly to tighten his grip over the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The emphasis that the new commander-in-chief has put on flexing the nation's fast-growing military muscle has fed speculation that he will be taking a more hard-line stance on relations with the U.S. and with Taiwan. However, it is unlikely that the predominant Hu-Wen Faction – a reference to the leadership team under Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao – will unveil too many major initiatives until it has consolidated its control over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the government and the army.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan

543. China Brief, Balancing U.S. Interests in the Strait

Author:
Ronald N. Montaperto, Willy Lam, Cynthia Watson, and Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In the view of many observers, the normalization of Sino-American relations signaled the end of a strategic relationship with the Republic of China (Taiwan) that had endured with but one brief interruption for forty years. The rapid growth of economic ties between the U.S. and mainland China in the 1980s seemed to confirm this assessment. Although political connections through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) remain strong, the major benefit to the United States of its unofficial relationship to the island lies in the economic realm.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan

544. China Brief, Kim Jong-Il's Visit to Beijing: What Does it Mean for the West?

Author:
Mohan Malik, Matthew Oresman, Willy Lam, and Paul H.B Godwin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The unusually effusive reception that the Chinese leadership accorded Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il last week has buttressed speculation that Beijing and Pyongyang probably reached some form of a deal even prior to the long awaited visit. According to diplomatic sources in Beijing, Kim agreed during discussions with his Chinese hosts to take a “more serious and proactive stance” toward the ongoing six-nation talks on dismantling his country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Moreover, the sources said the reclusive leader pledged that unless there was further “provocation” from the United States, Pyongyang would not engage in tension raising gimmicks such as testing bombs or missiles. And, at least for the time being, a freeze would be put on the development of new WMD.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Beijing, and Pyongyang

545. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy

Author:
Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

546. Missile Defense All Over Again

Author:
Michelle Ciarrocca
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Under President Clinton, it became U.S. policy to deploy a National Missile Defense (NMD) system "as soon as technologically feasible." However, Clinton's commitment to missile defense was tempered by his pledge to base a deployment decision on four criteria: the overall cost of the program, its technical feasibility, an assessment of the ballistic missile threat facing the United States, and the impact that NMD might have on arms control and arms reduction efforts. In contrast, President Bush has set no criteria to constrain deployment.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

547. U.S. Military Bases in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
John Lindsay-Poland
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The United States maintains a complex web of military facilities and functions in Latin America and the Caribbean, what the U.S. Southern Command (known as SouthCom) calls its "theater architecture." U.S. military facilities represent tangible commitments to an ineffective supply-side drug war and to underlying policy priorities, including ensuring access to strategic resources, especially oil.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

548. The U.S. – ROK Alliance: Building a Mature Partnership

Author:
James J. Przystup and Kang Choi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In thinking about the future direction of the alliance between the United States and South Korea, one needs to start in the past. For in this case, the past is truly prologue. More than a decade ago, as President George H.W. Bush came into office, structural changes in the security landscape of Asia were becoming manifest. The Cold War was winding down. Congress and the American public were looking for returns on the “peace dividend.” There was a clear expectation that cuts would be coming across the board — and in Asia, these cuts would begin with the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

549. Strategic Surprises for a New Administration

Author:
Jason R. Wisniewski
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy's Schlesinger Working Group met during the fall of 2004 to discuss potential strategic surprises that could confront a new administration. The group focused on identifying candidate surprises and scenarios that could appear early in its term. Some examples of events the group sought to anticipate included trend reversals, out-of-the blue surprises, or second-order surprises caused by currently “visible” possibilities. During its first meeting, held shortly before the presidential election, the group discussed over a dozen possible scenarios in political, military, economic, and environmental fields. This list was further developed in intensive discussion in early December. This report draws on those discussions whose purpose was not to predict but to think “outside the box,” and concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the second Bush Administration.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

550. How Terrorism Affects American Diplomacy

Author:
Thomas O. Melia
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Interviews with several dozen senior American diplomats-including ambassadors and others currently serving abroad-indicate that the daily conduct of U.S. diplomacy has recently been altered in significant ways by the elevated threat of terrorism against American interests made manifest on September 11, 2001; the worldwide War on Terror declared by President George W. Bush in consequence; and the prosecution of the war in Iraq, on which diplomats are as divided as other Americans regarding whether it is or is not part of the global War on Terror.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and America