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491. Stretching the Model of "Coalitions of the Willing"

Author:
Andrew F. Cooper
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Two models may be draw up of coalitions of the willing. The first model is epitomized by the group of countries assembled by the United States for the mobilization of the 2003 Iraq war. The second model is the form of coalition associated with the anti-personnel landmines campaign and the initiative on the International Criminal Court in the mid to late 1990s. This paper will explore the relationship between these different types of coalitions. The former type is characterized by a top-down, state-centric, and coerced/opportunistic strategic form. The latter type by way of contrast takes a bottom-up, voluntary, mixed actor, diplomatic approach. Yet, along side these differences are some striking, but unanticipated similarities. Most dramatically, both types have been assembled on an intense stylistic basis with an eye to avoiding the frustrations associated with working via established institutions. By looking more closely at the external expression and inner workings of these modes of activity, the model of coalitions of the willing is stretched out in terms of their motivations, sense of ownership, and future trajectory.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

492. Getting to “No”: Defending Against Demands in NAFTA Energy Negotiations

Author:
Antonio Ortiz Mena L.N.
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
How can a developing country defend itself against unwanted demands in international economic negotiations, especially when the demandeur is a stronger state? Such defense can be a necessary component of any strategy, not only a distributive one but also a mixed strategy aimed at a wider agreement that benefits both sides. Sometimes what looks like an unwelcome demand turns out, after exploration and exchanges of concessions, to be an acceptable element in a beneficial package deal. But some demands are unwelcome in the stronger sense that one's government places an infinite reservation value on that particular issue. The government would prefer no agreement. In the case of a deal breaker, the delegation can walk away from the entire negotiation, but this could have large costs in opportunities foregone and even possible penalties imposed. What are the alternatives short of walking away? Mexico's negotiators faced such situation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations with the United States and Canada (1990-1992), specifically in the energy sector. In general the three states sought a mutual-gains agreement, and in general each employed a mixed strategy. In energy, however, Washington made demands--regarding investment and supply commitments--which Mexico found unacceptable. At the end of the day the Mexican team managed to attain its main offensive negotiation aims in NAFTA (significantly improved market access, faster tariff reductions in the U.S. and Canada than in Mexico, and an effective dispute settlement mechanism), as well as the main defensive ones in energy. How did they do it? Structural conditions, such as being a neighbor of the U.S., gives Mexico certain leverage in negotiations, for the U.S. will typically take into account non-economic considerations when negotiating over economic issues. Nonetheless, many lessons derived from Mexico's negotiation strategy in energy negotiations during NAFTA can be applied across a range of cases.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Canada, North America, and Mexico

493. Opinión pública y política exterior en México y Estados Unidos: un estudio comparado

Author:
Guadalupe Gonzalez (ed), Susan Minushikin (ed), Robert Y. Shapiro (ed), and Catherine Hug
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The 2004 Mexico and the World survey, conducted by Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) and Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI), is the first-ever comprehensive study of Mexican public and leadership opinion on international affairs. The study is designed to measure general attitudes and values concerning Mexico's relationship with the world rather than opinions on specific foreign policies or issues. This year's survey was conducted in cooperation with The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations' (CCFR) 2004 study of American public and leadership opinion on foreign policy, a periodic survey conducted since 1974.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Central America, Mexico, and Chicago

494. Comparing Mexican and American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

Author:
Guadalupe Gonzalez (ed), Susan Minushikin (ed), Robert Y. Shapiro (ed), and Catherine Hug
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The 2004 Mexico and the World survey, conducted by Centro de InvestigaciÓ;n y Docencia EconÓmicas (CIDE) and Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI), is the first-ever comprehensive study of Mexican public and leadership opinion on international affairs. The study is designed to measure general attitudes and values concerning Mexico's relationship with the world rather than opinions on specific foreign policies or issues. This year's survey was conducted in cooperation with The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations' (CCFR) 2004 study of American public and leadership opinion on foreign policy, a periodic survey conducted since 1974.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Central America, and Mexico

495. The U.S. National Security Strategy and the Global War on Terror “Force Multiplier”

Author:
Charles W. Parker III
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
In September 2002, President George W. Bush published a new National Security Strategy (NSS) in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks in the United States homeland. The publication of the new NSS represented a codification of a series of policy ideas that had been brewing since the end of the first Bush Administration and throughout the Clinton Administration, which were sharpened as a result of the newly perceived threats to the United States' security posture. Some prominent academics have argued that the NSS and Bush's actions represent a “neoimperialist” or “unilateralist” approach to the conduct of U.S. foreign relations, and are a radical and fundamental shift in the trajectory of U.S. power projection and assertiveness. They also lament a rift in relations with European allies in part due to this new policy trajectory, to the point of declaring that the Europe and the United States will be future rivals on the world stage.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

496. The Erez and Gaza Industrial Estates: Catalysts for Development

Author:
Aiman Mackie
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The political and economic landscape in the Middle East is changing in ways that would have been hard to imagine months ago. With changes in governments, the near cessation of violence, the more active reengagement of the United States in the peace process, and various positive signals from both sides, including direct meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the longstanding conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is entering a period of relative optimism. Recent indications are that the Palestinian Authority is ready to work jointly with five parallel working groups being set up by the Government of Israel to address different aspects of the planned disengagement from Gaza, and the Quartet Principals have appointed out- going World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn as Special Envoy for Gaza Disengagement. The Special Envoy is charged with leading, overseeing and coordinating the international community's efforts in support of the disengagement initiative.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

497. A Presentation of Preliminary Findings and a Roundtable Discussion with Government and Civil Society Actors in Georgia

Author:
Denika Blacklock
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
The Meskhetian Turks are one of the last of the national groups of the Soviet Union deported by Stalin in 1943–44, who have not yet been able to return to their native region (in southwest Georgia). Currently numbering some 370–400,000 people, the Meskhetian Turks, following pogroms and multiple displacements, find themselves scattered across vast territories of Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and, most recently, the United States. In some of these countries, the Meskhetian Turks are exposed to ethnic persecution and discrimination, while Georgia, so far, has effectively blocked resettlement to their native region. International actors seeking to address these problems encounter severe difficulties in finding solutions, inter alia, due to a lack of consistent knowledge on the Meskhetian Turks' own perceptions of their displacement and their visions for future settlement.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

498. Reforming Egypt: In Search of a Strategy

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential election, a response to U.S. pressure, was a false start for reform. Formal pluralism has never seriously limited the dominance of President Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP); extension to the presidential level is a token so long as the opposition is too weak to produce plausible candidates. If the further reforms Mubarak has promised are to be meaningful, they should be aimed at recasting state/NDP relations and, above all, enhancing parliament's powers. As a start, Mubarak should ensure free and fair November legislative elections. The legal opposition must make the case for these changes and overcome its divisions if it is to become relevant and be able to compete with the Muslim Brothers for popular influence. The U.S. and others should support judicial supervision of elections, refrain from pressing for quick, cosmetic results, and back a longer-term, genuine reform process.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, North Africa, and Egypt

499. Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The surprise election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who is being sworn in as president this week, has given rise to dire predictions about Iran's domestic and foreign policies and relations with the U.S. and the European Union. There are reasons for concern. Based on his rhetoric, past performance, and the company he keeps, Ahmadi-Nejad appears a throwback to the revolution's early days: more ideological, less pragmatic, and anti- American. But for the West, and the U.S. in particular, to reach and act upon hasty conclusions would be wrong. Iran is governed by complex institutions and competing power centres that inherently favour continuity over change. More importantly , none of the fundamentals has changed: the regime is not about to collapse; it holds pivotal cards on Iraq and nuclear proliferation; and any chance of modifying its behaviour will come, if at all, through serious, coordinated EU and U.S. efforts to engage it.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

500. Swaziland: The Clock Is Ticking

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Swaziland has been an absolute monarchy for more than 30 years, with a royal leadership that ignores worsening social ills and a small elite that is often openly corrupt. A new constitution that further codifies broad royal powers and privileges is in the final stages of preparation. Political violence is still more talked about than actual but frustration is building. Multilateral African institutions, the EU and key countries like South Africa and the U.S. have been too willing to accept the royalists' line that any change must come very slowly. More pressure from the outside is needed to help pro-reform elements inside the country bring back a constitutional monarchy and genuine democracy that are the best guarantees Swazi instability will not eventually infect the region.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Swaziland