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441. Can al-Qaeda's Lebanese Expansion Be Stopped?

Author:
Emily Hunt
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Israelis assess the implications of Hamas's victory in January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, a new threat may be developing in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda–linked terrorists have been present in Lebanon for a decade, but recent statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest that the dual objectives of destabilizing Arab regimes and targeting Israel proper are becoming top al-Qaeda priorities. Al-Zarqawi–linked terrorists in Lebanon have already engaged in low-level targeting of Israeli and Lebanese interests, yet several obstacles may hinder their ability to launch significant attacks in or from Lebanon. The Lebanese government, although weak, has a clear interest in preventing both internally and externally directed al-Qaeda activity. The dynamic among Hizballah, the Palestinians, and al-Qaeda remains more ambiguous, but early signs suggest potential antagonism among the groups. Together, Israel and the United States may be able to help Lebanon contain this emerging threat.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

442. Afghan Insurgency Still A Potent Force

Author:
Emily Hsu and Beth DeGrasse
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since they reorganized their forces in Pakistan in 2003, Taliban and other anti-government militia have sought to disrupt democratization efforts and sow a climate of fear in Afghanistan. As a result, violence has crept back onto the international radar screen in the last couple of years, a brutal reminder the insurgency is far from defeated. This rise in bloodshed is particularly problematic today, as U.S. forces begin this summer to transfer control of insurgent-heavy regions of the country to NATO. The U.S. Institute of Peace held a recent special session of its Afghanistan Working Group dedicated to this topic, with counterinsurgency experts Seth Jones of the RAND Corporation and Colonel David Lamm of National Defense University. Beth DeGrasse, coordinator of USIP's Afghanistan Working Group
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

443. Overcoming Obstacles to Humanitarian Assistance in Darfur

Author:
Dorina Bekoe and Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Civilians and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Darfur, western Sudan, are increasingly being attacked by militia groups. At the same time, it is progressively more difficult to deliver humanitarian assistance to Darfur as aid agencies are hampered by increased banditry and continued obstruction by the government of Sudan (GOS). Moreover, the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) does not offer adequate protection as it continues to operate with severe budgetary constraints, inadequate amounts of military officers and equipment, and a limited mandate that does not allow it to prevent incidents or respond sufficiently to attacks. On December 14, 2005, the Sudan Peace Forum of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) convened to address the continuing challenges facing the delivery of humanitarian assistance in Darfur. Firsthand accounts of the humanitarian crisis were presented by Sloan Mann of the United States Agency for International Development; Michael Heller Chu of the United Nations Organization for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance; and Jonathan Morgenstein of USIP. Ambassadors Chester Crocker and Francis Deng co-chaired the meeting. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the discussion on the rising insecurity faced by civilians in Darfur, the challenges facing AMIS, the response by the GOS, and the opportunities for the international community to facilitate humanitarian assistance in Darfur.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Sudan

444. Resolving the Pakistan- Afghanistan Stalemate

Author:
Abubakar Siddique and Barnett R. Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Taliban and al Qaeda insurgencies today are equally active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The nationalist insurgency in Pakistani Baluchistan, which Pakistani leaders assert receives support from Indian agents in Afghanistan, also aggravates relations between the two countries. The challenges of violent insurgency require both countries to address their relationship, particularly as it affects the border areas. Formation of such a policy is essential to the vital interests of the United States, NATO, and the international community, which has committed itself to the effort in Afghanistan through UN Security Council resolutions and other measures Afghanistan and Pakistan have had largely antagonistic relations under all governments but the Taliban since Pakistan was created as part of the partition of India in 1947. Some elements of friction were also inherited from conflicts between Afghanistan and India when it was under British imperial rule. Afghanistan's governments, including that of the Taliban, have never recognized the Durand Line between the two countries as an international border and have made claims on the Pashtun and Baluch regions of Pakistan. Today 's cross-border insurgencies, with their sanctuaries and support networks in Pakistan, are nurtured by the same sources as previous conflicts, as well as global Islamist movements. Arrangements to secure the frontier of the British Empire in the nineteenth century by isolating Afghanistan as a buffer state do not work for a twenty-first-century borderland integrated into networks of global conflict. The United States and other external powers that seek to support the new order in Afghanistan and stabilize both Pakistan and Afghanistan should encourage a multidimensional process of dialogue and peacebuilding focused on the problems of the border region. Pressure may also be needed to convince some actors to engage seriously in such a process, but pressure alone will not succeed. A process should work toward reforms in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, leading to their integration into Pakistani national politics and administration; the recognition by Afghanistan of the international border; assured access by Afghanistan to Pakistani ports and transit facilities; the maintenance by both countries of open borders for trade, investment, and cultural relations; agreement by both countries and by India to keep the India-Pakistan dispute out of Afghanistan 's bilateral relations with both; and agreements on both sides to cease supporting or harboring violent opposition movements against the other. The United States, NATO, and the UN must agree to send a common message to Islamabad: that the persistence of Taliban havens in Pakistan is a threat to international peace and security that Pakistan must address immediately. They also must agree to urge Afghanistan and India to do all in their power to encourage Pakistan to make difficult decisions by addressing sources of Pakistani insecurity, including issues relating to the border region and Kashmir. They should actively promote this process and act as guarantors and funders of any agreements that result from it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, India, Taliban, and Kashmir

445. Political Integration in Europe and America: Towards a Madisonian Model for Europe

Author:
Mark C. Christie
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
While integration in Europe is, in several important aspects, already more advanced than it was in America during the decades prior to the American Civil War, there are important differences that make deeper political integration comprising all members of the European Union unlikely in the near term. A smaller group of EU members, however, is likely to continue towards deeper integration, although questions of constitutional legitimacy must be confronted and resolved. European integrationists may find the federalist principles of James Madison, regarded as the father of the American Constitution, valuable both for deeper integration and wider expansion. A Madisonian federal model for Europe could prove acceptable both to many euro-federalists and euro-sceptics and thus advance the cause of European integration. Ironically, a European federal union based on Madisonian principles would be much closer to the vision of many of America's founders than the federal structure of present-day America.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

446. Expanding Coal Use While Protecting the Climate

Author:
John P. Holdren
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This country needs to expand coal use for electricity generation and for reducing dependence on oil and natural gas in other applications. But it also needs to take serious steps to reduce the risks from climate change. Reconciling these two objectives requires a three-pronged approach, as recommended in the recent report of the bipartisan National Commission on Energy Policy that I had the privilege of co-chairing: The first prong is to provide a market signal that begins to slow the growth of carbon emissions, but at a pace that doesn't force premature retirement of existing coal-fired generating capacity. The Commission's proposal for a carbon-emission permit system that starts in 2010, phases in gradually, and controls the permit costs with an initial "safety valve" price of $7 per ton of CO2 is designed to achieve this. The second prong is speeding up the commercialization of integrated gasification-combined-cycle multipurpose coal plants, which can produce liquid and gaseous fuels as well as electricity, which sharply reduce emissions of criteria air pollutants, and which offer the potential for affordable retrofit to capture CO2. The Commission proposes $400 million per year in federal early-deployment incentives over the next decade, in order to bring into operation 10 gigawatts of carbon-capture-capable IGCC plants. The third prong is accelerating the development and commercial-scale demonstration of the carbon capture and sequestration technologies needed to realize the potential of IGCC plants to drastically and affordably reduce their CO2 emissions. For this purpose the Commission has proposed $300 million per year in federal support over the next decade.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

447. Can Rich Countries Afford to Grow Old?

Author:
Gary Burtless
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Observers in many industrialized countries believe population aging represents a serious economic threat. Increases in the percentage of the population past retirement age may impose unsustainable burdens on future workers. Either taxes or government debt will have to rise substantially to pay for old-age income support. This paper considers the extent of these burdens and corrects the widespread impression that the burdens are unsupportable. Population aging means that contributions needed to support the retired elderly must rise. But this extra burden will be at least partly offset by a reduced need to support the dependent young, who will become relatively less numerous. The extra burden of an aging population would be smaller still if labor force participation rates among the working-age and elderly populations increased. Indeed, employment rates among the nonaged have risen in nearly all the industrialized countries as a growing percentage of women has entered the work force. Many countries, including the United States, have adopted policies to encourage work among people past the traditional retirement age.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Economics, Government, and Population
Political Geography:
United States

448. Deficits, Interest Rates, and the User Cost of Capital: A Reconsideration of the Effects of Tax Policy on Investment

Author:
William G. Gale and Peter R. Orszag
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Under traditional formulations, lower capital income tax rates reduce the user cost of capital and stimulate investment. The traditional approach, however, implictly or explicitly considers a revenue-neutral reduction in capital income taxation. We extend the traditional approach by considering a reduction in taxes that generates an increase in the budget deficit; the expanded budget deficit raises interest rates and the opportunity cost of investment. This provides a mechanism through which tax cuts can raise the cost of capital. Representative calculations show that, even with relatively modest interest rate effects, the net effect of making the Administration's recent tax cuts permanent or a 10-percent reduction in individual income tax rates would be to raise the user cost of capital. Thus, sustained tax cuts can raise the cost of capital and reduce investment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

449. Articulating a Policy Framework for Long-Term Federal Entitlement Reform

Author:
James C. Capretta
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
President Bush's top first-term objectives—in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks—were waging and winning the global war on terror, significantly enhancing our homeland security systems, and strengthening economic growth.1 With sluggish economic growth following the 2001 recession persisting in 2002 and 2003—due, in part, to the revelation of several corporate governance scandals and the aftermath of technology stock "bubble burst"—the President placed a high premium on tax relief proposals aimed at accelerating the pace of short and long-term economic growth. In this context, it is not at all surprising that large federal budget deficits emerged.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

450. Why Federalism Matters

Author:
Pietro S. Nivola
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
What do we want from federalism?” asked the late Martin Diamond in a famous essay written thirty years ago. His answer was that federalism—a political system permitting a large measure of regional selfrule—presumably gives the rulers and the ruled a “school of their citizenship,” “a preserver of their liberties,” and “a vehicle for flexible response to their problems.” These features, broadly construed, are said to reduce conflict between diverse communities, even as a federated polity affords inter-jurisdictional competition that encourages innovations and constrains the overall growth of government.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States