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432. President Obama and Middle East Expectations
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Carnegie Endowment has monitored closely the Arab media's coverage of the long U.S. election campaign and the reactions to Barack Obama's victory. Recently, the Carnegie Middle East Center commissioned a series of commentaries from Arab writers and analysts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
433. Bush, Clausewitz, and the Grand Strategic Imperative: Keeping Political Ends Primary
- Author:
- Bryan Groves
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- As President George W. Bush relinquishes the reigns as Commander-in-Chief to President Barak Obama, it is fitting to reflect on how the country will remember President Bush in years to come. Whether or not one agrees with his decision to commit U.S. forces to military action against Saddam Hussein and his Ba'ath Party regime in Iraq, it is clear that Bush's legacy will largly be determined by how Iraq turns out--whether as a stable, free, and peace-loving democracy or something short of that. There is certainly plenty of room for continued improvement in the conditions on the ground and ample time for the political, security, and economic situation to yet deteriorate. Yet, since "The Surge" and the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq, developments in Iraq have taken a fundamentally and undeniably positive turn.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
434. Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Candidate Obama pledged that his Middle East policy would include re-engagement with Syria; President Obama will find that the past is not easily overcome. The reasons behind his vow remain pertinent. Syria holds important cards in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, is Iran's most important Arab ally and has substantial influence over Hamas and Hizbollah. There are indications of potential common ground on which to build, from resuming Israeli-Syrian negotiations, to consolidating progress in Iraq to blunting the rise of jihadi militancy and sectarianism. But significant obstacles to healthy, mutually beneficial relations remain, along with a legacy of estrangement and distrust. They dictate the need for a prudent approach that seeks first to rebuild ties and restore confidence. It will be critical to reassure Damascus that the U.S. is interested in improving relations and resolving the Israeli-Arab conflict, not in regime change. It is also equally critical not to compromise on core principles such as Lebanon's sovereignty or the integrity of the international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
435. Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea
- Author:
- Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- For most of the 1990s, North Korea was under what can only be called a prolonged deathwatch, so common and confident were predictions of its demise. Despite suffering acute economic stress from the loss of its principal economic patron—the Soviet Union—in 1991, the sudden death of its founding father––Kim Il-Sung––in 1994, and then soon after a devastating famine that may have claimed as many as a million lives, North Korea managed to survive. By decade's end, North Korea's extraordinary resilience, combined with its defiant and at times belligerent attitude to the rest of the world, had convinced most experts that this was not a country about to pass either quickly or quietly into the history books. Since then, the conventional wisdom among most if not all North Korea watchers is that it will muddle through indefinitely even if its long-term future remains doubtful.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States and North Korea
436. The Somali conflict: The role of external actors
- Author:
- Bjørn Møller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Somalia has been without a functioning state ever since 1991, when the former dictator, Siyad Barre, was overthrown. None of the competing factions were strong enough to take his place as ruler of the country, producing first chaos, but gradually a form of stateless order. The international interventions have ever since the failed, and counter-productive intervention by the United Nations and the United States in the early 1990 exacerbated rather than mitigated the problems, let alone solved them. This was especially the case for the Ethiopian invasion (December 2006-January 2009), which produced utter chaos and a severe humanitarian crisis. Since the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces, Islamist extremist militias have been establishing control of Somalia, and they may or may not be able to maintain this control. If they pursue their radical programme of Islamisation, their reign is likely to be short, but if they moderate themselves they may retain control.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Somalia
437. Ready to Lead? Rethinking America's Role in a Changed World
- Author:
- Robin Niblett
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- During his inaugural address on 20 January 2009, Barack Obama declared to 'all other peoples and governments, who are watching today, know that we are ready to lead once more'. In the following four weeks to the publication of this report, President Obama has set the United States on a course that is meeting widespread approval around the world. He has ordered the closure as soon as possible of the Guantánamo Bay detention facilities and of other secret facilities outside the United States that had so undermined America's international credibility with its allies and confirmed the anti-US narrative of its opponents. He has appointed special envoys for Middle East Peace and to implement an integrated strategy for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. He has offered to 'seek a new way forward' with the Muslim world as well as to 'extend a hand' to authoritarian governments if they are willing 'to unclench [their] fist'. His Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has said that America will be more effective if it can 'build a world with more partners and fewer adversaries'. Both have recognized the virtues of pragmatism over ideology and the reality of interdependence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, Asia, and Latin America
438. Where Are the Civilians? How to Rebuild the U.S. Foreign Service
- Author:
- J. Anthony Holmes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- If it hopes to achieve its foreign policy agenda, the Obama administration will need to undo the damage to the Foreign Service wrought by the Bush administration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
439. A Broader Agenda: Beyond Bush-Era Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Stephen R. Graubard
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The next U.S. foreign affairs agenda needs to be more imaginative in considering what the United States will value tomorrow.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
440. Bank Shots: How the Financial System Can Isolate Rogues
- Author:
- Rachel L. Loeffler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Financial sanctions have become a key tool of U.S. foreign policy. Measures taken against Iran and North Korea make clear that this new financial statecraft can be effective, but true success will require persuading global banks to accept a shared sense of risk.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and North Korea