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392. Generational Change and the Future of U.S. - Russian Relations
- Author:
- Jeffrey Mankoff
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- While post-Cold War generation Americans are more sober in assessing Russia, the next Russian generation (those under 35) is in some ways more problematic. Russian youth are much more entrepreneurial and politically engaged than their elders, but also more skeptical of the US and more comfortable with intolerant nationalism. The Kremlin is also reinforcing some of the more worrying trends among Russian youths. There is no going back to the Cold War, but the coming of the new generation does not portend smooth sailing, unless current officials can figure out ways to fundamentally alter the nature of a relationship still dominated by mutual distrust.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, America, and Soviet Union
393. The U.S. Senate and Iraq: Who Changed their Views, and Why?
- Author:
- Andrew Bennet and Andrew Loomis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Focusing on the evolving views of the 77 U.S. Senators who voted to authorize the use of force in Iraq in 2002, we seek to explain why some political leaders changed their views markedly from 2002 to 2008 and others did not. We argue that in view of the great preponderance of evidence that the initial premises of U.S. intervention in Iraq were not fulfilled, Bayesian updating cannot by itself explain the persistence of divergent views on Iraq. It is also puzzling that a half-dozen senators persisted in their support of Bush's position on Iraq even though this may have contributed to their electoral defeat. We use a combination of political and psychological variables, including ideology, party affiliation, safety of the senator's seat, military service, cognitive style, and presidential aspirations to explain why some senators changed their public positions on Iraq within a year, others did so by 2006, still others in 2007, and some changed very little in more than five years. We combine these variables into a typological theory and test it against a qualitative analysis of 20 senators' views on Iraq. We conclude that our model is relatively successful in predicting not only when senators' views changed but what rationales they gave for why their initial expectations were not borne out. We also note several senators who prove important anomalies for our model, including Senators Lieberman, who was the only Democrat who did not move toward opposing Bush's policies, and McCain, who thus far has not moved toward the political center on Iraq despite having effectively secured his party's nomination.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Arabia
394. Taming the Revisionist State: The Effects of Military Defeats on the War-Proneness of Germany vs. Iraq
- Author:
- Benjamin Miller and Moran Mandalbaum
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Following the post - 2003 US intervention in Iraq, and with a potential US use of force against Iran, one key analytical question stands out, which has major policy implications: Does military defeat by the great powers have stabilizing or de - stabilizing effects on the aggressive behavior of revisionist states? Somewhat similarly to the pre - 2003 Iraq invasion debate, the great powers have a number of options for dealing with the potential Iranian nuclear threat: diplomatic engagement, deterrence, or resort to military power -- either to bring about a regime change, or to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. Taking into account the possibility of resorting to force against Iran, an intriguing question emerges: what does IR theory lead us to expect -- and what does the historical record show -- with regard to the effects of military defeats on the war - propensity of revisionist states? In other words, why do some militarily defeated states become war - like, while others peaceful?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Germany
395. Export Control Reform 2010: Transforming the Legal Architecture of Dual-Use and Defense Trade Controls
- Author:
- Neena Shenai
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- This paper proposes reforms to the legal framework of the U.S. export control system. By examining the existing legal structure of dual-use and defense trade controls and its shortcomings, the paper considers how other U.S. legal regimes could provide models for ongoing reform efforts being undertaken by the Obama Administration and Congress. The paper proposes certain reforms, including the institution of added administrative safeguards and limited judicial review, to improve the current system.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
396. Third-Generation Civil-Military Relations: Moving Beyond the Security-Development Nexus
- Author:
- Frederik Rosen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The U.S. elevation of security assistance to a core military capability has divided the waters between those who believe the military should stick to preparing strike capability and fighting wars and those who believe the world needs much broader forms of military engagement. Recent developments in strategy indicate that the latter opinion will prevail. The commencement of U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) in 2007 with its civilian command, interagency modalities, and soft power mandate reflects that an amalgamation of military and civilian capabilities is viewed at the highest levels as the way forward for realizing U.S. foreign policy and national security objectives.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
397. The Fifth Estate: Think Tanks and American Foreign Policy
- Author:
- James G. McGann
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In this increasingly complex, interdependent, and information-rich world, U.S. policymakers face the common challenge of bringing expert knowledge to bear in governmental decision making. American think-tanks are well-positioned to provide alternative views to administrations and foster debate on contentious topics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
398. US-Vietnam: New Strategic Partners Begin Tough Trade Talks
- Author:
- Raymond Burghardt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Vietnamese and Americans joined together in Hanoi last December for a happy celebration, commemorating the tenth anniversary of the entrance into force of the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement signed in December, 2001. The gathering of current and former trade negotiators, diplomats, and business leaders exchanged witty anecdotes about who had been the toughest negotiator. However, the main focus for both American and Vietnamese participants was on the positive prospects for future US-Vietnam relations across the spectrum of trade and strategic common interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia
399. Russia's Policy in the Middle East: Prospects for Consensus and Conflict with the United States
- Author:
- Dmitri V. Trenin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This report is one in a series commissioned by The Century Foundation to explore issues of interest to American policymakers regarding Russia, aimed at identifying a framework for U.S.-Russian relations and policy options for a new administration and Congress that could help right the two countries' troubled relationship at a crucial juncture. The papers in the series explore significant aspects of U.S.-Russian relations, outlining a broad range of reasons why Russia matters for American foreign policy and framing bilateral and multilateral approaches to Russia for U.S. consideration. A high-level working group, co-chaired by Gary Hart, former U.S. senator from Colorado, and Jack F. Matlock, Jr., former U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, has provided direction to the project and offered recommendations for action that the United States might take.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, America, Middle East, and Asia
400. The Arctic: A View From Moscow
- Author:
- Dmitri V. Trenin and Pavel K. Baev
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Arctic is emerging as the world's next hot spot for oil and gas development. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that the Arctic seabed could contain 20 percent of the world's oil and gas resources and Russia's Ministry of Natural Resources says the Arctic territory claimed by Russia could be home to twice the volume of Saudi Arabia's oil reserves. While accessing those reserves once seemed impossible, the melting ice cap now makes it more feasible and opens new shipping lanes for international trade. Countries around the world—particularly Russia—have noticed.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Moscow, and Saudi Arabia