Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics Political Geography United States

781. The challenge of measuring inflation...when business is not as usual

Author:
Cecilia Frale and Jørgen Mortensen
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The recent surge in commodity prices and the European Central Bank's decision in June to raise interest rates to combat inflation have ignited a debate about the appropriateness of raising interest rates during a phase of weakening activity. In addition, it is relevant to examine the approaches to measuring the rate of inflation, to consider the advantages and drawbacks of these methods, and finally to throw new light on the possible influence of monetary policy on the fundamental trends in prices.
Topic:
Economics and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

782. Distance Isn't Quite Dead: Recent Trade Patterns and Modes of Supply in Computer and Information Services in the United States and NAFTA Partners

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the statistical strengths and weaknesses of available data on US computer and information services trade and estimates the scope of delivery through GATS modes 1, 3, and 4. Trade values are estimated using a new methodology that adheres, to the greatest extent possible, to the definitions of modes of supply in the 2002 Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services. This paper finds that US trade (particularly exports) in computer and information services are overwhelmingly and increasingly delivered through mode 3. The United States is found to have experienced declining overall revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in traditional mode 1 cross-border computer and information services trade from 1986 to 2006, while having a stable, positive RCA in mode-3 trade. A new methodology for tentatively estimating US imports of computer and information services in GATS mode 4 suggests that the IT services sector dominates US mode-4 imports, and that these are several times larger than US traditional mode-1, cross-border imports of computer and information services.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

783. Foreign Exposure to Asset-Backed Securities of U.S. Origin

Author:
Daniel O. Beltran, Laurie Pounder, and Charles Thomas
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The financial turmoil which began in August 2007 originated, in part, because investors reassessed the quality of the assets underlying many asset-backed securities (ABS), particularly U.S. mortgages. The prominence of European banks in the early stages of the turmoil created the perception that foreigners held an outsized share of risky U.S. securities and prompted questions of why Europeans were so exposed. This paper evaluates that perception by quantifying foreign exposure to ABS with U.S. underlying collateral. Using the latest survey data on foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities, we find that the ultimate losses that foreigners could incur arising from U.S. underlying assets are small relative to most scale variables, although initial total mark-to-market losses are estimated to be significantly larger. Among other reasons for this difference between ultimate and initial losses, we demonstrate that the securitization chain can amplify mark-to-market price declines in the presence of uncertainty or illiquidity. Finally, we show that, relative to the size of the market, foreigners’ holdings of U.S. mortgage-backed securities do not appear to be elevated compared with their holdings of other U.S. assets.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, and Mortgages
Political Geography:
United States and North America

784. Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices

Author:
Lutz Kilian and Clara Vega
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Since exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose a formal test of the identifying assumption that energy prices are predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates. Our test is based on regressing cumulative changes in daily energy prices on daily news from U.S. macroeconomic data releases. Using a wide range of macroeconomic news, we find no compelling evidence of feedback at daily or monthly horizons, contradicting the view that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news and supporting the use of delay restrictions for identification.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United States and North America

785. Uncertainty over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation

Author:
Seth Pruitt
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
An economic agent who is uncertain of her economic model learns, and this learning is sensi- tive to the presence of data measurement error. I investigate this idea in an existing framework that describes the Federal Reserve’s role in U.S. inflation. This framework successfully fits the observed inflation to optimal policy, but fails to motivate the optimal policy by the perceived Philips curve trade-off between inflation and unemployment. I modify the framework to account for data uncertainty calibrated to the actual size of data revisions. The modified framework ameliorates the existing problems by adding sluggishness to the Federal Reserve’s learning: the key point is that data uncertainty is amplified by the nonlinearity induced by learning. Conse- quently there is an explanation for the rise and fall in inflation: the concurrent rise and fall in the perceived Philips curve trade-off.
Topic:
Economics, Inflation, and Models
Political Geography:
United States and North America

786. The United States' Public Diplomacy Platform in Davos

Author:
Peter R. Coneway
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
The World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, is unlike any other event of its kind. Over a five-day span at the end of January each year, 2,000 world leaders, Fortune 500 chief executive officers, international media moguls and nongovernmental organization (NGO) leaders gather in the small alpine village of Davos to participate on panels, in industry meetings and in "off the record" sessions. The WEF meetings in Davos have been a ripe target for public diplomacy efforts over the past 38 years, and the WEF's founder, Dr. Klaus Schwab, has preserved the original intent of the forum in maintaining its focus as a place for informal dialogue and debate on major social and economic problems.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Switzerland

787. Electronic Employment Eligibility Verification: Franz Kafka's Solution to Illegal Immigration

Author:
Jim Harper
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In last summer's debate over immigration reform, Congress treated a national electronic employment eligibility verification (EEV) system as a matter of near consensus. Intended to strengthen internal enforcement of the immigration laws, electronic EEV is an Internet-based employee vetting system that the federal government would require every employer to use.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

788. Dismal Science: The Shortcomings of U.S. School Choice Research and How to Address Them

Author:
John Merrifield
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Pressing questions about the merits of market accountability in K-12 education have spawned a large scholarly literature. Unfortunately, much of that literature is of limited relevance, and some of it is misleading. The studies most widely cited in the United States used intense scrutiny of a few small-scale, restriction-laden U.S. programs—and a handful of larger but still restriction-laden foreign school choice expansions—to assert general conclusions about the effects of "choice," "competition," and "markets." The most intensely studied programs lack most or all of the key elements of market systems, including profit, price change, market entry, and product differentiation—factors that are normally central to any discussion of market effects. In essence, researchers have drawn conclusions about apples by studying lemons.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

789. Decision Factors Affecting Semiconductor Industry Location and the Regional Advantages of Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan

Author:
Kyoko Ii
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The objective of this research is to pinpoint the key determining factors that managers in multinational semiconductor firms use to decide upon a location to expand their business. Interviews were conducted with seventeen executives at eight companies, at both the U.S. and Japanese headquarters. Based on these interviews, the author analyzed the data to determine the strengths and weaknesses of Japan's Kumamoto Prefecture, in particular, as a semiconductor investment location. One important research finding is an assessment of these strengths and weaknesses, their importance to foreign executives, and how Kumamoto can capitalize on them in order to attract more business to the region.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Iran, and Asia

790. The US Housing Bust and Soaring Oil Prices: What next for the world economy?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Cecilia Frale
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of the ongoing housing bust and oil price boom on the US and European economies. It finds that large house price movements (changes in construction investment) are useful to predict exceptionally bad and good times for the US economy, but not for most large European countries. In Europe housing market developments have led to extreme values of GDP, mainly in the UK, Spain and some Nordic countries.
Topic:
Economics and Oil
Political Geography:
United States and Europe