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1351. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2001

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.5 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.7 percent in November. Gains in the financial, housing and expectations components propelled the leading index up in November for a second consecutive month. Should this pattern in the leading index continue, an economic recovery in the first half of next year may be possible. The coincident index continued to weaken as industrial production declined in thirteen of the last fourteen months while nonagricultural employees declined in six of the last eight months. Compared to the coincident index's average decline of 3.3 percent in the previous six recessions, the current decline has been relatively shallow. To date, the coincident index has declined by only 1.4 percent from its peak of 117.1 in December 2000.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1352. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2001

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased by 0.5 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in September. The composite indexes and their components suggest that the widespread weakness in the U.S. economy is becoming deeper.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1353. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2001

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
New York, NY, June 20, 2001 - The Conference Board today announced that the leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the period of slow growth in the U.S. economy will continue in the next few months.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1354. Finance and Changing US-Japan Relations: Convergence Without Leverage—Until Now

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In the postwar era, US-Japan economic relations have been characterized by substantial tensions, yet this has not damaged the underlying security relationship or critically harmed the multilateral economic framework. In fact, these two economies have become more integrated over time even as these tensions played out. These tensions, however, have required an enormous expenditure of political capital and officials' time on both sides of the Pacific and have led to foregone opportunities for institution building and policy coordination. They have deepened since Japan “caught up” with the United States around 1980, and Japanese and US firms began increasingly to compete for profits and market share in the same sectors. Moreover, as both the US and Japanese economies continue to mature – both in terms of the age of their populations and their industrial mix – they will likely face even greater tensions between them over allocating the management and costs of industrial adjustment.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia

1355. Foreign Direct Investment in China: Effects on Growth and Economic Performance

Author:
Edward M. Graham and Erika Wada
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
By almost all accounts, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has been one of the major success stories of the past 10 years. Starting from a base of less than $19 billion in 1990, the stock of FDI in China rose to over $300 billion at the end of 1999. Ranked by the stock of inward FDI, China thus has become the leader among all developing nations and second among the APEC nations (only the United States holds a larger stock of inward FDI). China's FDI consists largely of greenfield investment, while inward FDI in the United States by contrast has been generated more by takeover of existing enterprises than by new establishment, a point developed later in this paper. The majority of FDI in China has originated from elsewhere in developing Asia (i.e., not including Japan). Hong Kong, now a largely self-governing “special autonomous region” of China itself, has been the largest source of record. The dominance of Hong Kong, however, is somewhat illusory in that much FDI nominally from Hong Kong in reality is from elsewhere. Some of what is listed as Hong Kong-source FDI in China is, in fact, investment by domestic Chinese that is “round-tripped” through Hong Kong. Other FDI in China listed as Hong Kong in origin is in reality from various western nations and Taiwan that is placed into China via Hong Kong intermediaries. Alas, no published records exist to indicate exactly how much FDI in China that is nominally from Hong Kong is in fact attributable to other nations.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Hong Kong

1356. Access to Land and Land Policy Reforms

Author:
Alaine de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Who should have access to land? What is the optimum definition of property rights and use rights in each particular context? Is government intervention justified to influence who has access to land and under what conditions? These questions remain, in most developing countries, highly contentious. It is indeed the case that land is all too often misallocated among potential users and worked under conditions of property or user rights that create perverse incentives. As a consequence, investments to enhance productivity are postponed, and responses to market incentives are weakened; many poor rural households are unable to gain sufficient (or any) access to land when this could be their best option out of poverty; land remains under-used and often idle side-by-side with unsatisfied demands for access to land; land is frequently abused by current users, jeopardizing sustainability; and violence over land rights and land use is all too frequent. With population growth and increasing market integration for the products of the land, these problems tend to become more acute rather than the reverse. As a result, rising pressures to correct these situations have led many countries to reopen the question of access to land and land policy reforms. While large scale expropriative and redistributive land reforms are generally no longer compatible with current political realities, there exist many alternative forms of property and use rights that offer policy instruments to alter the conditions of access to land and land use. A rich agenda of land policy interventions thus exists to alter who has access to land and under what conditions for the purposes of increasing efficiency, reducing poverty, enhancing sustainability, and achieving political stability.Historically, the most glamorous path of access to land has been through statemanaged coercive land reform. In most situations, however, this is not the dominant way land was accessed by current users and, in the future, this will increasingly be the case. Most of the land in use has been accessed through private transfers, community membership, direct appropriation, and market transactions. There are also new types of state-managed programmes of access to land that do not rely on coercion. For governments and development agents (NGOs, bi-lateral and international development agencies), the rapid decline in opportunities to access land through coercive land reform should thus not be seen as the end of the role of the state and development agents in promoting and altering access to land. The following paths of access to land in formal or informal, and in collective or individualized ownership can, in particular, be explored (Figure 1): (1) Intra-family transfers such as inheritances, inter-vivo transfers, and allocation of plots to specific family members; (2) access through community membership and informal land markets; (3) access through land sales markets; and (4) access through specific non-coercive policy interventions such colonization schemes, decollectivization and devolution, and land market-assisted land reform. Access to land in use can also be achieved through land rental markets (informal loans, land rental contracts) originating in any of these forms of land ownership. Each of these paths of access to land has, in turn, implications for the way land is used. Each can also be the object of policy interventions to alter these implications of land use. The focus of this policy brief is to explore each of these paths and analyse how to enhance their roles in helping increase efficiency, reduce poverty, increase equality, enhance sustainability, and achieve political stability.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

1357. Australian Unemployment Protection: Challenges and New Directions

Author:
Wayne Vroman and Vera Brusentsev
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
This paper examines Australia's scheme of unemployment protection and makes some comparisons with unemployment protection in the United States of America. A major concern of the paper is to understand the differences in unemployment duration between these two economies. Policies followed in the United States intended to reduce duration are reviewed for possible applicability in Australia.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, Australia, and Southeast Asia

1358. Are Immigrants Leaving California? Settlement Patterns of Immigrants in the Late 1990s

Author:
Wendy Zimmermann and Jeffrey S. Passel
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
For at least the last century and a half, the immigrant population in the United States has been highly concentrated in a handful of states. Even at the beginning of the 20th century, when the foreign-born population was less than half its current size, just over half of all immigrants lived in only six states. By 1990, that share had increased to nearly three-quarters. But, between 1990 and 1999, the geographic concentration of immigrants began to wane slightly, as the foreign-born population grew substantially faster in states that have not traditionally received large numbers of immigrants. This dispersal of the immigrant population is particularly noteworthy in the face of dramatically increased numbers, especially in the new settlement areas, and policy changes surrounding the noncitizen population.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States and California

1359. Do Affluent Countries Face an Incomes-Jobs Tradeoff?

Author:
Lane Kenworthy
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
A commonly-held view suggests that affluent nations face a tradeoff between incomes and jobs. According to this view, in the United States pay for workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution (relative to those in the middle) is very low and government unemployment-related benefits (the “replacement rate”) are stingy, but this facilitates the creation of lots of new jobs and encourages such individuals to take those jobs. The result is a high rate of employment and low unemployment. In much of Western Europe relative pay levels are higher for those at the bottom and benefits are more generous, but this is said to discourage job creation and to reduce the willingness of the unemployed to accept low-wage jobs. The consequence is low employment and high unemployment. I undertake a comparative assessment of this tradeoff view, based on pooled cross-section time-series analyses of 14 OECD countries in the 1980s and 1990s. The findings suggest that greater pay equality and a higher replacement rate do reduce employment growth in low-productivity private-sector service industries and in the economy as a whole. However, these effects are relatively weak. The results point to a variety of viable options for countries wishing to maintain or move toward a desirable combination of jobs and equality.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1360. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt

Author:
Amy W. Hawthorne
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt