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1202. Mexico Alert: The Impact of the War in Iraq on Mexico
- Author:
- Armand Peschard-Sverdrup
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- When looking at the ramifications of the war in Iraq on the Western Hemisphere, it is clear that the conflict will have the greatest impact on the two nations with which the United States shares borders—Mexico and Canada. From a national security standpoint, these nations' immediate proximity to the United States automatically heightens the threat to their own national security, particularly because we seem to have entered an era in which the use of weapons of mass destruction—be they nuclear, chemical, or biological—poses a viable threat. From a U.S. homeland security standpoint, the shared border transforms both of our friendly neighbors into possible platforms from which rogue elements could stage attacks or enter the United States to threaten our homeland.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Canada, Latin America, North America, and Mexico
1203. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2003
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 1.0 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in May.The leading index increased sharply in May following a slight gain in April. This increase was largely due to stock prices, real money supply, and consumer expectations, but most other components also increased slightly. It is possible that these two consecutive increases reflect the beginning of an upward trend, thereby ending the flat trend that began in early 2002.The strength in the leading indicators has become more widespread as shown by a pick-up in the diffusion indexes, which measure the proportion of the components that are rising. The one- and six-month diffusion indexes are now at or above fifty percent, up from lower levels earlier in the year. The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, increased modestly in May after holding steady in the previous two months. The coincident index remained essentially flat in the second quarter, but is likely to increase in the second half of the year reflecting the recent gains in the leading index.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1204. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2003
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.5 percent in April.After declining in February and March, the leading index increased slightly in April. Since early 2002, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend. This is consistent with real GDP growth continuing to fluctuate around a 2% to 2.5% average annual rate.Despite rebounding financial indicators and consumer expectations, there is still weakness in the labor market and manufacturing indicators. Weakness in these components reflects the recent declines in manufacturing capacity utilization.The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, decreased in April after holding steady in March. The slight decline in the coincident indicators in April is consistent with the weakness in the leading index in the first quarter of 2003.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1205. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2003
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in March.The leading index declined for a second consecutive month in March, but the information available so far in April suggests that these declines will not continue. The leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend since December 2001.The flatness in the leading index suggests that U.S. real GDP growth will stay in the 2-3% range for now. As long as economic growth is constrained in this range, the labor market cannot improve.The coincident index has been essentially flat in recent months with gains in income and sales offset by weakness in employment and industrial production. With economic growth at or slightly below potential, the coincident index is unlikely to grow strongly.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1206. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2003
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in February.The leading index fell in February for the first time since September 2002. Uncertainty over war in Iraq, as well as severe winter weather in February, is reflected in the widespread weakness, particularly in stock prices, consumer expectations, and the labor market. Some of these weaknesses have persisted through March.More generally, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend over the past 15 months with a balance between rising and falling components. The index fell in the third quarter of 2002, rose in the fourth quarter, and is now declining again in the first quarter.After flattening in the fourth quarter of last year, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 in January and held that level in February (with a decline in employment offsetting the gains in income, production, and sales). At this point, the leading index is suggesting that economic growth may be on the sluggish side in the second quarter.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
1207. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2003
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in January.A sharp drop in claims for unemployment insurance offset the weak expectations of consumers in January. The leading index remains well above its peak prior to the 2001 recession and just below the previous high achieved in May 2002.The coincident index turned up again in January after pausing in the last quarter of 2002. This month's increase in the coincident index, the largest in six months, is consistent with the gains in the leading index late last year and reflects better current conditions in the beginning of this year.Barring any shock or prolonged uncertainty in the Middle East, the leading and coincident indexes point to a more robust pace of economic activity in the coming months.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1208. American Unilaterism, Foreign Economic Policy and the 'Securitisation' of Globalisation
- Author:
- Richard Higgott
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper traces the 'securitisation' of US foreign economic policy since the advent of the Bush administration. It does so with reference to US economic policy in East Asia. It argues that in the context of US economic and military preponderance in the world order, the US has been able to resist the temptation to link foreign economic and security policy. While there was evidence of the securitisation of economic globalisation in US policy from day one of the Bush administration, it was 9/11 that firmed up this trend. For the key members of the Bush foreign policy team, globalisation is now seen not simply in neo-liberal economic terms, but also through the lenses of the national security agenda of the United States. Economic globalisation is now not only a benefit, but also a 'security problem'. 9/11 offered the opportunity for what we might call the 'unilateralist-idealists', in the Bush administration, to set in train their project for a post-sovereign approach to American foreign policy. The paper identifies some intellectual contradictions in current US strategy and raises a series of question about the implication for world order of the consolidation of the trends identified in the paper.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and East Asia
1209. Examining the Role of Foreign Assistance in Security Sector Reforms: The Indonesian Case
- Author:
- Eduardo Lachica
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Indonesia and the donor community are agreed that security sector reforms are needed to restore investor confidence and sustain the pace of economic recovery. However, donor-assisted programmes have had only a limited success so far and the army's post-Suharto reforms appeared to have ground to a halt. This paper offers some suggestions on how to restore the momentum for reform in the light of donor limitations, the military's historical circumstances and the current mood of intense nationalism. Donors should initiate a quiet Track II (non-official) dialogue with the military, the police, the civilian authorities and civil society to scope out a doable programme of cooperation. The issue of civilian supremacy should be dealt with pragmatically, allowing for a process of negotiation to find an effective working relationship between civilian and military authorities. The dialogue should frame the reform process as a burden for the entire society, reminding civilian leaders that they too have a responsibility to improve their performance and demonstrate their ability to oversee military affairs capably and fairly. Since U.S. assistance to the Indonesian military is likely to remain constrained, the paper proposes a "military donors club" that can expand the donor base and work informally with the World Bank-led Consultative Group on Indonesia. The dialogue should deal creatively and patiently with two of the most vexing issues relating to the army — restructuring its network of territorial commands and phasing out its controversial tradition of self-financing. This could be a difficult learning process for both sides of the civilian-military divide that could last a decade or more.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia
1210. Making Money: Political Development, the Greenback, and the Euro
- Author:
- Kathleen R. McNamara
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies
- Abstract:
- The creation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe challenges much of what we have come to take for granted about states and the components of sovereignty. What does the willingness of twelve European Union (EU) members to abandon their own currencies mean for the nation-states of Europe? Does the Euro automatically imply further political development at the EU level? To address these questions, this paper parses out the role that national currencies play in statebuilding with reference to the nineteenth century American experience. Just as US federal authorities engaged in a political project to wrest control over money from subnational authorities to the center and unify the currency, so have the dynamics of currency unification in the EU involved important conflicts over the location of the legitimate exercise of control and rule. In particular, I highlight the role of war and market integration in prompting currency consolidation, and the importance of linkages between money and fiscal capacity for statebuilding, and apply the analytical lessons learned from the US experience to the case of the Euro.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe