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1041. Attitudes about Social Security Reform

Author:
Karlyn H. Bowman
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
What do Americans think about the health of the Social Security system and proposals to reform it? This AEI Public Opinion Study looks at how different pollsters have approached the issue. It provides historical data and includes trends on aspects of the debate from major pollsters.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America

1042. Building a North American Community

Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The security and well-being of its citizens stand at the very pinnacle of any government's responsibilities. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the futures of Canada, Mexico, and the United States are shared as never before. As a result, all three countries face a historic challenge: Do they continue on the path of cooperation in promoting more secure and more prosperous North American societies or do they pursue divergent and ultimately less secure and less prosperous courses? To ask the question is to answer it; and yet, if important decisions are not pursued and implemented, the three countries may well find themselves on divergent paths. Such a development would be a tragic mistake, one that can be readily avoided if they stay the course and pursue a series of deliberate and cooperative steps that will enhance both the security and prosperity of their citizens.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

1043. Getting to “No”: Defending Against Demands in NAFTA Energy Negotiations

Author:
Antonio Ortiz Mena L.N.
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
How can a developing country defend itself against unwanted demands in international economic negotiations, especially when the demandeur is a stronger state? Such defense can be a necessary component of any strategy, not only a distributive one but also a mixed strategy aimed at a wider agreement that benefits both sides. Sometimes what looks like an unwelcome demand turns out, after exploration and exchanges of concessions, to be an acceptable element in a beneficial package deal. But some demands are unwelcome in the stronger sense that one's government places an infinite reservation value on that particular issue. The government would prefer no agreement. In the case of a deal breaker, the delegation can walk away from the entire negotiation, but this could have large costs in opportunities foregone and even possible penalties imposed. What are the alternatives short of walking away? Mexico's negotiators faced such situation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations with the United States and Canada (1990-1992), specifically in the energy sector. In general the three states sought a mutual-gains agreement, and in general each employed a mixed strategy. In energy, however, Washington made demands--regarding investment and supply commitments--which Mexico found unacceptable. At the end of the day the Mexican team managed to attain its main offensive negotiation aims in NAFTA (significantly improved market access, faster tariff reductions in the U.S. and Canada than in Mexico, and an effective dispute settlement mechanism), as well as the main defensive ones in energy. How did they do it? Structural conditions, such as being a neighbor of the U.S., gives Mexico certain leverage in negotiations, for the U.S. will typically take into account non-economic considerations when negotiating over economic issues. Nonetheless, many lessons derived from Mexico's negotiation strategy in energy negotiations during NAFTA can be applied across a range of cases.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Canada, North America, and Mexico

1044. The Erez and Gaza Industrial Estates: Catalysts for Development

Author:
Aiman Mackie
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The political and economic landscape in the Middle East is changing in ways that would have been hard to imagine months ago. With changes in governments, the near cessation of violence, the more active reengagement of the United States in the peace process, and various positive signals from both sides, including direct meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the longstanding conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is entering a period of relative optimism. Recent indications are that the Palestinian Authority is ready to work jointly with five parallel working groups being set up by the Government of Israel to address different aspects of the planned disengagement from Gaza, and the Quartet Principals have appointed out- going World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn as Special Envoy for Gaza Disengagement. The Special Envoy is charged with leading, overseeing and coordinating the international community's efforts in support of the disengagement initiative.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

1045. Bans, Tests and Alchemy: Food Safety Standards and Ugandan Fish Export

Author:
Stefano Ponte
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Fish exports are the second largest foreign exchange earner in Uganda. When Uganda's fish export industry started to operate in the late 1980s and early 1990s, one may have thought that fish was being turned into gold. From an export value of just over one million US$ in 1990, the mighty Nile Perch had earned the country over 45 million US$ just six years later. But alchemy proved to be more than the quest of the philosophers' stone to change base metals into gold. From 1997 to 2000, the industry experienced a series of import bans, imposed by the EU on grounds of food safety. Despite claims to the contrary, the EU did not provide scientific proof that fish was actually 'unsafe'. Rather, the poor performance of Uganda's regulatory and monitoring system was used as a justification. The 'system', as the characters of an allegory, has no individual personality and is the embodiment of the moral qualities that 'the consumer' expects from 'responsible operators' in the fish sector. Only by fixing this system of regulations and inspections, and by performing the ritual of laboratory testing did the Ugandan industry regain its status as a 'safe' source of fish. Fish exports now earn almost 90 million US$ to the country. This apparent success story was achieved by a common front comprising government authorities and the processing industry, a high level of private-public collaboration not often seen in East Africa. Yet, important chunks of the regulatory and monitoring system exist only on paper. Furthermore, the system is supposed to achieve a series of contradictory objectives: to facilitate efficient logistics and ensure food safety; to match market demand and take care of sustainability; to implement a top-down food safety monitoring system and a bottom-up fisheries co-management system. This means that at least some food safety-related operations have to be carried out as 'rituals of verification'. Given the importance of microbiological tests and laboratories in the food safety compliance system, alchemic rituals are perhaps a more appropriate metaphor. While the white coats and advanced machinery of present-day alchemists reassure insecure European regulators and consumers, it leaves the Ugandan fish industry in a vulnerable position. In Uganda, fish can now be turned into gold again – but for how long?
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, United States, and East Africa

1046. Growth in the Exclusion of Employer Health Premiums

Author:
Adam Carasso
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The single largest tax expenditure in the federal budget is the employer exclusion of contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care from employee income taxes. In fiscal year 2005, the Office of Management and Budget estimates this exclusion is worth $112 billion. If the payroll tax exclusion component were also counted here, the total would be significantly higher. (For details, please see Len Burman, Cori Uccello, Laura Wheaton, and Deborah Kobes, ''Tax Incentives for Health Insurance,'' Discussion Paper No. 12, Washington, DC: The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, May 2003.)
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States

1047. Economic Integration, EU-US Trade Conflicts and WTO Dispute Settlement

Author:
Fritz Breuss
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Research Papers Archive
Abstract:
Since its inception in 1995, more than 330 disputes have been raised under the WTO Dispute Settlement System. The major players in world trade–the EU and the USA–are also the busiest users of this instrument. After looking at links between economic integration and WTO involvement and a survey of the actual transatlantic WTO trade disputes, the welfare implications of the four most prominent trade disputes between the EU and the USA ("mini trade wars") are analyzed with GTAP5: the Hormones, the Bananas, the FSC and the Steel cases. The economic analysis reveals that the level of suspension of concessions hardly coincides with the level of nullification or impairment (expressed in lost trade effects) if one considers the overall welfare implications of retaliation with tariffs. The idea of "rebalancing" retaliation is a myth. Tariffs are a very bad instrument of retaliation. Maybe a mechanism of direct transfers or financial compensation would be better.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1048. Dark Armies, Secret Bases, and Rummy, Oh My!

Author:
Conn Hallinan
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
It would be easy to make fun of President Bush's recent fiasco at the 4th Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata, Argentina. His grand plan for a free trade zone reaching from the Artic Circle to Tierra del Fuego was soundly rejected by nations fed up with the economic and social chaos wrought by neoliberalism. At a press conference, South American journalists asked him rude questions about Karl Rove. And the President ended the whole debacle by uttering what may be the most trenchant observation the man has ever made on Latin America: "Wow! Brazil is big!"
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

1049. Government and the Economy: The World Wars

Author:
Robert Higgs
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
U.S participation in the world wars gave rise to massive increases in the extent of government involvement in economic life and brought about many important, enduring changes in the government\'s relations with private economic actors. In both wars, the federal government expanded enormously the amount of its expenditure, taxation, and regulation as well as its direct participation in productive activities, creating what contemporaries described during World War I as "war socialism." Each of these great experiences left a multitude of legacies—fiscal, institutional, and ideological—many of which continue to shape the country\'s political economy. As William Graham Sumner wisely observed, "it is not possible to experiment with a society and just drop the experiment whenever we choose. The experiment enters into the life of the society and never can be got out again" (Sumner 1934, II, 473). The world wars certainly are among the greatest "experiments" that American society ever endured.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

1050. Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Electronic Brokerage System Data

Author:
Jonathan H. Wright, David W. Berger, Alain P. Chaboud, Sergey V. Chernenko, Edward Howorka, Raj S. Iyer, and David Liu
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the association between order flow and exchange rate returns in five years of high-frequency intraday data from the leading interdealer electronic broking system, EBS. While the association between order flow and exchange rate returns has been studied in several previous papers, these have mostly used relatively short spans of daily data from older bilateral dealing systems and, usually, transaction counts instead of actual trading volume. Using a substantially longer span of recent high-frequency data and measuring order flow as actual signed trading volume, we find a strong positive association between order flow and exchange rate returns at frequencies ranging from one minute to one day, and a more modest but still sizeable association at the monthly frequency. We find, however, no evidence that order flow has predictive power for future exchange rate movements beyond, possibly, the next minute. Focusing on the behavior of order flow and exchange rates at the time of scheduled U.S. economic data releases, we find that the surprise components of these announcements are associated with order flow at high frequency immediately after the data releases. This finding seems inconsistent with a simple efficient markets view of how a public news announcement is incorporated into prices.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States