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402. International Risk-Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks
- Author:
- Sylvain Leduc, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Luca Dedola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to efficient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that a standard international business cycle model with incomplete asset markets augmented with distribution services can account quantitatively for these properties of real exchange rates. Distribution services, intensive in local inputs, drive a wedge between producer and consumer prices, thus lowering the impact of terms-of-trade changes on optimal agents' decisions. This reduces the price elasticity of tradables separately from assumptions on preferences.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
403. Arms Control in an Age of Strategic and Military Revolution
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- We have come a long way since autumn 1989 and the few optimistic years that followed. During that dawn of the post-Cold War era, security policy discourse focused briefly on notions of common security and a peace dividend. Since then, these ideas have been displaced by other, more bellicose ones: the clash of civilizations, the war on terrorism, and their constant companion: the Revolution in Military Affairs.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States
404. Reviving Peacebuilding Tools Ravished By Terrorism, Unilateralism, and Weapons Of Mass Destruction
- Author:
- Robert C. Johansen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- Those seeking to perfect and apply the tools of peacebuilding as recommended by Chadwick Alger (1991; 1995; 1996; 1999; 2000; 2002) cannot avoid being alarmed by three recent developments that threaten to wreck already overextended tools. These developments include (1) new threats of mega-terrorism similar to the tragic events of September 11, 2001; (2) U.S. rejection of equitable implementation of international law and cooperative multilateralism by endorsing pre-emptive war and U.S. global military dominance, as expressed in the new National Security Strategy of the United States (Bush, 2002); and (3) the multiple threats posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In the face of these daunting problems, what can exponents of peacebuilding tools do to strengthen international peace?
- Topic:
- Development, Peace Studies, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
405. GSP in the "spaghetti bowl"; of trade preferences
- Author:
- Arne Melchior
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The paper examines the relative position of GSP (tariff preferences for developing countries) compared to ordinary tariffs and free trade agreements in Norway, the EU and the USA. On average, ordinary GSP gives a tariff rebate of less than 50% in all countries. “Extended” GSP, given to the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and others, implies zero tariffs in Norway and the EU, but only partial liberalisation in the USA. EU provides extended GSP for 119 countries, while the USA does so for 76 and Norway for 52. Considering the shares of trade rather than the number of countries, extended GSP covers 5% or less of total trade in all cases, and ordinary GSP is much more important. Compared to tariffs in free trade agreements, ordinary GSP is inferior in the USA and the EU, but not too far behind in Norway. This is due to recent cuts in MFN tariffs as well as improvements in the GSP system of Norway. For manufacturing, Norway has low tariffs and a generous GSP system. This is however not the case for agriculture.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Norway
406. GSP in the 'spaghetti bowl' of trade preferences
- Author:
- Arne Melchior
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The paper examines the relative position of GSP (tariff preferences for developing countries) compared to ordinary tariffs and free trade agreements in Norway, the EU and the USA. On average, ordinary GSP gives a tariff rebate of less than 50% in all countries. “Extended” GSP, given to the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and others, implies zero tariffs in Norway and the EU, but only partial liberalisation in the USA. EU provides extended GSP for 119 countries, while the USA does so for 76 and Norway for 52. Considering the shares of trade rather than the number of countries, extended GSP covers 5% or less of total trade in all cases, and ordinary GSP is much more important. Compared to tariffs in free trade agreements, ordinary GSP is inferior in the USA and the EU, but not too far behind in Norway. This is due to recent cuts in MFN tariffs as well as improvements in the GSP system of Norway. For manufacturing, Norway has low tariffs and a generous GSP system. This is however not the case for agriculture.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Norway
407. Economic Survey of the United States, 2005
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Despite higher energy prices, the expansion has continued at a solid pace, driven by private domestic demand. With the output gap closing, stimulus is appropriately being withdrawn. However, monetary tightening since mid-2004 has not yet translated into higher long-term interest rates, and the incipient decline in the federal budget deficit owes much to the recent buoyancy of revenues. Over the next 18 months, the economy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3¼ per cent, roughly in line with estimated potential output. Although such a soft landing is the most likely outcome, there are some risks. With little economic slack left, inflation could continue to pick up, in particular if oil prices keep rising. Insufficient public spending restraint or renewed dollar weakness associated with concerns about the external deficit might also add to inflationary pressures. On the other hand, an end to the house price boom, let alone a sharp correction, could entail a retrenchment of household expenditure that has been underpinned by rising household wealth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
408. Nuclear Energy Today
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Nuclear energy has been used to produce electricity for more than half a century. It currently provides about 17% of the world's supply and 23% in OECD countries. The oil crisis of the early 1970s provoked a surge in nuclear power plant orders and construction, but as oil prices stabilised and even dropped, and enough electricity generating plants came into service to meet demand, orders tailed off. Accidents at Three Mile Island in the United States (1979) and at Chernobyl in Ukraine (1986) also raised serious questions in the public mind about nuclear safety.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Ukraine
409. Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq: A Progress Report
- Author:
- Jeffrey White, Jack Keane, and Francis West
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Daily images of carnage from Iraq and uncertainty over how to measure coalition progress continue to stoke debate in the United States. How does one assess the status of the insurgency? How are the efforts to recruit and train Iraq's security forces proceeding? What are America's options in Iraq?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Vietnam, and Syria
410. Japan Moves toward Sustainable Recovery
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Japan's stock market, one of the world's strongest this year, is up about 20 percent since spring. It is doing remarkably well for a country whose nominal GDP is still below its 1997 level. By contrast, the U.S. stock market has been drifting lower all year. The S 500 Index is down about 4 percent in the last five months, even more when the highflying energy sector is excluded. This is the case despite U.S. nominal GDP having grown by a cumulative 46 percent since 1997. Clearly, stock markets are looking ahead and seeing a brighter future for Japan than for the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia