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141. Afghan Insurgency Still A Potent Force

Author:
Emily Hsu and Beth DeGrasse
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since they reorganized their forces in Pakistan in 2003, Taliban and other anti-government militia have sought to disrupt democratization efforts and sow a climate of fear in Afghanistan. As a result, violence has crept back onto the international radar screen in the last couple of years, a brutal reminder the insurgency is far from defeated. This rise in bloodshed is particularly problematic today, as U.S. forces begin this summer to transfer control of insurgent-heavy regions of the country to NATO. The U.S. Institute of Peace held a recent special session of its Afghanistan Working Group dedicated to this topic, with counterinsurgency experts Seth Jones of the RAND Corporation and Colonel David Lamm of National Defense University. Beth DeGrasse, coordinator of USIP's Afghanistan Working Group
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

142. Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq

Author:
Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The approval of the Iraqi constitution in the October 15 referendum does not put Iraq on the path to stability and democracy but pushes it toward division into largely autonomous regions. And this new momentum is probably irreversible. Whether it will lead to a catastrophic descent into greater violence or even ethnic cleansing, or to a managed transformation into a loose federation of regions enjoying extreme autonomy, depends on whether it becomes possible for Sunni Arabs to form their own region, as Kurds already have and Shias are bound to do once the constitution is in effect. The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

143. Putin's Decline and America's Response

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia's regime has gone through a major aggravation during the first year of President Vladimir Putin's second term. The regime suffers from serious overcentralization of power, which has led to a paralysis of policy making. Putin's power base has been shrunk to secret policemen from St. Petersburg. Although his popularity remains high, it is falling. Neither unbiased information nor negative feedback is accepted. As a result, the Putin regime is much more fragile than generally understood. Russia's current abandonment of democracy is an anomaly for such a developed and relatively wealthy country, and it has made Russia's interests part from those of the United States. The United States should not hesitate to promote democracy in Russia, while pragmatically pursuing common interests in nonproliferation and energy.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia

144. The Chosen Nation: The Influence of Religion on U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
John B. Judis
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In putting forth his foreign policy, President George W. Bush speaks of the United States having a “calling” or “mission” that has come from the “Maker of Heaven.” Yet, while he uses explicitly religious language more than his immediate predecessors, there is nothing exceptional about a U.S. president resorting to religious themes to explain his foreign policy. U.S. goals in the world are based on Protestant millennial themes that go back to seventeenth-century England. What has distinguished Bush from some of his predecessors is that these religious concepts have not only shaped his ultimate objectives but also colored the way in which he viewed reality—sometimes to the detriment of U.S. foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States and England

145. Iraq: Without Consensus, Democracy Is Not the Answer

Author:
Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The elections were a success, but they do not ensure that Iraqis can now agree on a constitutional formula that accommodates the demands of all groups and keeps the country together. Democracy as separation of powers, checks and balances, and protection of individual rights has not proven enough to avoid conflict in other deeply divided societies. Iraqis will have to confront their differences and negotiate a solution. If they fail, the United States will be faced with a choice of whether to keep the country together by force or get out—and it is better to find out sooner rather than later.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

146. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?

Author:
Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

147. Opening the Realm: The Role of Communications in Negotiating the Tension of Values in Globalization

Author:
Michael Suman
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
We live in an era in which security concerns have become paramount, the forces of capitalism have dealt a death blow to socialist command economies, and the United States is aggressively promoting democracy in the Middle East. In this context, what does the future hold for the values of security, capitalism, and democracy? Historians tell us we also are in the Digital Age—increasingly so with the advent of new communications technologies such as the Internet. What role can the media play in fostering the values of security, capitalism, and democracy?
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Democratization, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

148. In Support of Arab Democracy: Why and How

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Middle East will be a central focus of U.S. foreign policy for the next generation and beyond. While the list of challenges in the region is long, the Arab world also presents opportunities. In a region marked by a "democracy deficit" and limited economic prospects, there is also ferment. From Marrakesh to Cairo and Ramallah to Riyadh, Arabs are engaged in intense debate, self-reflection, and reassessment of their societies. Washington has a chance to help shape a more democratic Middle East. Whereas emphasis on stability was once the hallmark of U.S.-Middle East policy, democracy and freedom have become a priority. Indeed, U.S. policymakers concluded shortly after the September 11 attacks that the prevailing domestic political, economic, and social conditions within Arab countries were a serious national security concern.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

149. Giving Democracy a Bad Name: Afghanistan's Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Sonali Kolhatkar and Jim Ingalls
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The United States has supposedly created new "democracies" in Afghanistan and Iraq, but these endeavors give democracy a bad name. Sure, the two countries have some ingredients of representative democracy, such as elected officials and a constitution. But both countries are still beset by grinding poverty, insurgencies, and entrenched militia forces that make the exercise of democracy either impractical or dangerous. Both countries have high numbers of foreign troops occupying their land and terrorizing the population while hunting "terrorists." And both countries' governments answer to their respective U.S. ambassador on most issues. In the midst of such a violent and coercive environment, Afghans are pressing ahead with the latest in a series of "democratic" exercises imposed by the United States: the first Afghan parliamentary elections in four decades will take place this Sunday, September 18. Even though many Afghans hope that the elections will empower them to end their troubles, the fear is that the elections will probably be as undemocratic in practice as every other U.S.-inflicted Afghan institution.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

150. The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Stephen Zunes
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The election of the hard-line Teheran mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, over former President Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani as the new head of Iran is undeniably a setback for those hoping to advance greater social and political freedom in that country. It should not necessarily be seen as a turn to the right by the Iranian electorate, however. The 70-year old Rafsanjani — a cleric and penultimate wheeler-dealer from the political establishment — was portrayed as the more moderate conservative. The fact that he had become a millionaire while in government was apparently seen as less important than his modest reform agenda. By contrast, the young Teheran mayor focused on the plight of the poor and cleaning up corruption.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East