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31. Retail 2022: How the Economist Intelligence Unit sees the retail landscape changing over the next decade

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Markets of the future—China, India, Brazil and Russia—will become the dominant retail markets l Africa, the final frontier—as BRIC opportunities diminish retailers will look to Africa as a driver of growth l Virtual marketplace— e-commerce, m-commerce and s-commerce—will transform the global retail landscape l Bricks and mortar will fight back as traditional retailers respond to change by integrating online with physical store offerings l Convenience will be king as shopping habits evolve into a multichannel approach rather than “one-stop shopping” l UK focus: polarised shopping habits could continue even when incomes recover, leading to an even greater squeeze on mid-market retail by 2022.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, and Brazil

32. Regulatory Quality in the European Commission and the UK: Old questions and new findings

Author:
Andrea Renda, Oliver Fritsch, Claudio M. Radaelli, and Lorna Schrefler
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines the quality of impact assessments in the European Commission and the United Kingdom for the period 2005-2010. We coded 477 impact assessments for the UK and 251 for the European Commission, using a detailed scorecard - adjusted to reduce the bias evidenced by previous usages of this instrument.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

33. The Perfect Storm: Economic stagnation, the rising cost of living, public spending cuts, and the impact on UK poverty

Author:
Moussa Haddad
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The combination in the UK of economic stagnation and public spending cuts is causing substantial hardship to people living in poverty. This amounts to a 'Perfect Storm' of falling incomes, rising prices, public service cuts, benefit cuts, a housing crisis, and weak labour rights. By making different political choices, the government can both protect people in poverty and help to stimulate economic recovery in the short term, and set the UK on the way towards economic, social and environmental sustainability in the long term.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Poverty, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

34. Britain, Ireland and Schengen: Time for a smarter bargain on visas

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
For the present UK government, full accession to the Schengen area, a passport- free travel area covering most of Europe, is a red line that it will not cross. Ireland shares a common travel area and land border with the UK and is also bound by this decision. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the UK, along with Ireland, is suffering serious economic and reputational costs as a result of its separate visa and border management policies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Ireland

35. The Liquidation of Government Debt

Author:
Carmen M. Reinhart
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of "financial repression." Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks. In this paper, the authors describe some of the regulatory measures and policy actions that characterized the heyday of the financial repression era. In the heavily regulated financial markets of the Bretton Woods system, several restrictions facilitated a sharp and rapid reduction in public debt/GDP ratios from the late 1940s to the 1970s. Low nominal interest rates help reduce debt servicing costs while a high incidence of negative real interest rates liquidates or erodes the real value of government debt. Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation. Inflation need not take market participants entirely by surprise and, in effect, it need not be very high (by historical standards). For the advanced economies in Reinhart and Sbrancia's sample, real interest rates were negative roughly half of the time during 1945–80. For the United States and the United Kingdom, their estimates of the annual liquidation of debt via negative real interest rates amounted on average to 3 to 4 percent of GDP a year. For Australia and Italy, which recorded higher inflation rates, the liquidation effect was larger (around 5 percent per annum).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

36. The Faces of Terrorism: Social and Psychological Dimensions

Author:
Dylan Kissane
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
In the decade since the 9/11 terrorist attacks there have been countless books and articles published that have sought to explain Islamist terrorism and explore policy responses to terrorism from the Muslim world. A smaller sector of the literature has sought to place Islamist terror in its international political context, drawing parallels with terrorism in the Basque country, Northern Ireland and domestic groups in the United States. A smaller sector again seeks to explore not only to describe such terrorism and explore policy responses to it but also to dig deeper and uncover the motivations that drive terrorists and those that respond to acts of terrorism to. Such works are, by necessity, interdisciplinary, drawing, of course, on political science and international relations but also sociology, psychology, economics and public policy studies, among many other fields. This sub-segment of the much broader field of terrorism studies offers the reader a chance to understand all aspects of terrorism in a variety of contexts, from what motivates a Tamil Tiger suicide bomber in Sri Lanka to what explains Irish Republican Army tactics in the mainland United Kingdom, from how military power is used to counter sub-state terrorist elements to how those terrorist actors are recruited in the first place. Broader in its conception of the notion of terrorism and wise to the complexities that terrorism should engender in policy debates, books that fall into this sub-segment of the field are both the most challenging to read and, when well executed, the most rewarding for the scholar of international politics.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Sri Lanka

37. Austerity ahead: How will a conservative victory change Spanish politics?

Author:
Teemu Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The electoral defeat suffered by the ruling Socialist Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE) in the municipal elections and the prolonged financial crisis has forced Prime Minister Zapatero to call an early general election on 20 November. The Conservative People's Party (Partido Popular, PP) is ahead in the polls by a clear margin and is likely to gain an absolute majority in the parliament. The economic outlook for Spain looks bleak, which means that the new government will have to create new jobs quickly and push through harsh and unpopular reforms, particularly regarding the fiscal and administrative structures. The Indignados protest movement is gaining support, and looks set to challenge the legitimacy of the system and force the future government to produce speedy results. Spain is expected to enhance its role in international politics through pragmatic bilateral relations. In particular, relations with the US seem to be warming up, while Spain can turn to the UK and Poland in the EU for companionship
Topic:
Debt, Democratization, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Spain

38. Exploring BME Maternal Poverty: The financial lives of ethnic minority mothers in Tyne and Wear

Author:
Chris Warburton Brown
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report has grown out of Oxfam's commitment to tackling the poverty of black and minority ethnic (BME) women in the UK. It aims to improve our understanding of BME mothers' experiences of poverty, to address the way in which the poverty of BME mothers is hidden from conventional data collection, to raise awareness amongst policy-makers and practitioners of the material circumstances of low-income BME mothers, and to improve the ways in which poor BME women are supported to secure greater assets and resources.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

39. A Generalized Fact and Model of Long-Run Economic Growth: Kaldor Fact as a Special Case

Author:
Daniel Danxia Xie
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper provides new evidence on the long-run relationship between economic growth and labor's share in national income, based on a comprehensive panel data set for 123 countries from 1950 to 2004. Xie's primary finding is that labor's share follows a cubic relationship with real GDP per capita over the long process of development. At the beginning of the modern economic growth process, the share of labor in national income first decreases until an initial threshold is reached. After that, labor's share keeps increasing until the country's GDP per capita reaches a second threshold before falling again. Xie argues that these dynamics apply not only to the less developed countries in the postwar years, but also to the advanced countries like the United States and the United Kingdom during their early economic take-offs, starting in the late 18th and 19th century, respectively. Finally, he proposes a two-sector constant elasticity of substitution (CES)-type growth model and simulate the model to replicate and explain the possible mechanism behind such a nonlinear pattern of movements in labor's share.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

40. Is the recovery sustainable in the US and Europe?

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Following the worst recession since the 1930s, the US, UK and Eurozone economies have all now returned to positive growth. With the boost from policy stimulus and the inventory cycle peaking, however, this raises questions about the sustainability of the current rebound. The analysis presented here suggests that the recoveries in both the US and Europe will be relatively muted compared to recent historical experience. The US is likely to be the growth leader, reflecting the more dynamic nature of its economy and financial sector. A key uncertainty relates to how labour markets will perform during the recovery phase. To date, the rise in US unemployment been particularly severe when compared to the experience of Europe. In light of the sharp falls in European productivity, we expect employment gains in Europe to be more muted in the recovery phase than in the US. The performance of residential real estate markets also remains important. Home prices in the US are now close to fair value by most metrics, suggesting that the correction in prices is likely to be bottoming out. In Europe, only Spain and Ireland appear to be in the midst of substantial housing market corrections. Commercial real estate markets are also facing ongoing corrections in many countries. While conditions in the US and Eurozone may deteriorate further, commercial property values appear to be stabilising in the UK following earlier sharp declines. The ability of the banking sector to finance the economic recoveries in the US and Europe remains a key risk to the growth outlook. As the process of absorbing credit losses and rebuilding capital is likely to be protracted, the normalisation of lending standards is likely to take longer than following recent recessions. This is a particular concern for the Eurozone, where bank funding is more important for companies. Whether domestic demand in the US and Europe recovers will also depend on whether private sector deleveraging has further to run. The destruction of household net wealth in the US suggests that the personal savings rate has further to rise, whereas there no longer appears to be a pressing need for households in the UK and Eurozone to consolidate their balance sheets. In contrast, non-financial corporations in the US are in a stronger financial position than their European peers, having not increased debt levels as rapidly during the credit boom. Risks around public finances have received the most attention in recent weeks. In particular, the adjustments underway in Greece pose a risk of potential contagion from sovereign credit risk that could threaten growth on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe