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2. The European Union’s post-Brexit reckoning with financial markets
- Author:
- Rebecca Christie and Thomas Wieser
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- In the negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom over their future relationship, we see a high probability of a weak contractual outcome, given the dominance of politics over considerations of market efficiency.
- Topic:
- Markets, Governance, Europe, Brexit, Negotiation, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
3. A post-Brexit agreement for research and innovation
- Author:
- Michael Leigh, Beth Thompson, and Reinhilde Veugelers
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This report sets out what the Wellcome Trust and Bruegel have learned from a project to simulate a negotiation process between the UK and EU to create a post-Brexit research and innovation agreement. Our negotiating scenario assumed that the UK had left the EU with a withdrawal agreement, and that the negotiation was taking place during a ‘standstill’ transition period.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Governance, European Union, Research, Brexit, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
4. The Brexit parenthesis: Three ways the pandemic is changing UK politics
- Author:
- Mark Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The shock of covid-19 in Britain may end the culture-wars politics set off by the Brexit referendum – which split the country between Leave and Remain, town and city, old and young. Many people had lent their votes to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives for cultural reasons, in spite of the fact that they were closer to the opposition Labour Party on economic issues. Covid-19 might cause a rethink, as voters expect competence from the government. Counterintuitively, both Leavers and Remainers are open to a leftist domestic agenda and greater cooperation with international partners – issues on which Labour is normally strong. Covid-19 has caused voters to take a dimmer view of previously touted post-Brexit trade partners like the US and China. They think more highly of countries such as Germany. The battleground will be ‘Red Wall defectors’ – voters who gave Johnson his 2019 general election landslide but who are reassessing what matters to them after Brexit. A politics divided along the lines of Leavers and Remainers could disappear as quickly as it appeared – but the Conservatives may nevertheless attempt to stoke the divisions of 2016 that secured them Brexit.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Brexit, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
5. EU sanctions and Brexit: Losing the hard edge of European foreign policy?
- Author:
- Juha Jokela and Ilari Aula
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU needs to assume more responsibility in defending its interests and security. Brexit will constitute an additional challenge for the EU in this respect, and has led to calls to strengthen the efficiency of the the Common Foreign and Security Policy, including EU sanctions, which currently form one of the toughest and most increasingly used tools in the EU’s foreign policy toolbox. The UK has been the most active and influential member state in formulating the EU’s sanctions policy. The EU could largely replace the technical expertise provided by the UK, yet the level of ambition of the EU’s sanctions policy is likely to decrease. Even though the UK has taken measures to maintain the sanctions regimes it agreed to as an EU member state, an independent UK sanctions policy could result in divergence. The envisaged coordination mechanisms between EU and UK sanctions policies can mitigate some of the negative implications of Brexit, but they cannot replace the UK’s EU membership.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Sanctions, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
6. Brexit: An Assessment of Zambia- UK Trade & Investment Relations
- Author:
- Shimukunki Manchishi and Mwanda Phiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Zambia
7. Political attitudes at a time of flux
- Author:
- Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- 2019 was a year of tremendous political significance in Northern Ireland in terms of what failed to happen. On-off talks between the DUP and Sinn Féin went nowhere and the Assembly Chamber in Stormont remained empty for a third year. Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement failed to be passed by the House of Commons and so the UK remained an EU member-state into the new year. This Research Update by Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher highlights public attitudes relevant to the political challenges in Northern Ireland, based on data from the 2019 Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland
8. Fisheries and Brexit
- Author:
- Anand Menon, Catherine Barnard, John Connolly, and Arno Van Der Zwet
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit has been a steep learning curve for all of us. It has forced us to wrap our heads around a number of issues – Article 50, statutory instruments, rules of origin, business motions in the House of Commons and the rest – with which we were, at best, only vaguely familiar. Fish and fisheries is another such issue. Absurd though it may seem, as the formal Brexit process reaches its endgame, fisheries might yet be the issue that determines whether the negotiations succeed or fail. Consequently, we at the UK in a Changing Europe have put together this short report to try to explain the basics about a sector that is frequently referred to yet rarely properly understood. The aim of what follows is to explain, as clearly and accessibly as possible, what is at stake in the negotiations over fisheries, what is being negotiated and what the implications of these talks might be for the sector.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, Trade, and Fishing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9. Brexit and the consequences for fisheries management in the North Sea
- Author:
- Gordon Munro
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The North Sea is a very productive fishing area of great importance to surrounding coastal states Norway, the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Denmark and Belgium, with an average total harvest in recent years of slightly more than 1.8 million tonnes. This report explains why the cooperative management of the six shared North Sea fish stocks has been so stable to date and considers what lessons this success holds for the world at large. The report also speculates on the post Brexit management of these resources. The lessons learned from cooperative management over 40 years may well have an impact also on future cooperation between Norway, the UK and the EU27.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Oceans and Seas, and Fishing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, and Netherlands
10. Will getting Brexit done restore political trust?
- Author:
- Will Jennings
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- There has been much written and said about the degree of trust that voters have in their government, and in politicians in general. At a time of considerable uncertainty around Covid-19, as well as around the various laws and guidelines governing public behaviour during the pandemic, these questions have taken on a newfound urgency. This report looks provides a starting point for those interested in tracking the relationship between government and governed in this Parliament.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe