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222. Fighting the Fed
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Since the US Federal Reserve signalled that a turn in the interest rate cycle may be on the horizon, UK and to a lesser extent Eurozone interest rates have tracked US rates higher. But the UK and Eurozone economies are less well placed than the US to cope with higher interest rates. Simulations carried out on our Global Economic Model show that higher rates would be particularly harmful to the UK economy's embryonic recovery. In an attempt to stem the rise in interest rates, the Bank of England and the ECB have introduce forward guidance but with little, if any, success. Markets do not seem convinced by the Bank of England's commitment to forward guidance and are testing its resolve. It seems likely that over time both central banks may have to strengthen their forward guidance, in the case of the Bank of England by augmenting it with further quantitative easing.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, and Europe
223. UK housing market: bellows to a bubble?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The housing market is recovering, according to recent price and activity data. Post-crisis price corrections were smaller in the UK than in the US and much of Europe, and demand is now being bolstered by the government's Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes. This has given rise to some worries that the UK is in danger of inflating another house price bubble. While housing supply is very tight, we are not convinced that these schemes will have enough impact on demand to cause prices to take off.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, and Europe
224. Summaries
- Author:
- Keren Yarhi-Milo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- How do policymakers infer the long-term political intentions of their states' adversaries? A new approach to answering this question, the “selective attention thesis,” posits that individual perceptual biases and organizational interests and practices influence which types of indicators a state's political leaders and its intelligence community regard as credible signals of an adversary's intentions. Policymakers often base their interpretations on their own theories, expectations, and needs, sometimes ignoring costly signals and paying more attention to information that, though less costly, is more vivid (i.e., personalized and emotionally involving). In contrast, intelligence organizations typically prioritize the collection and analysis of data on the adversary's military inventory. Over time, these organizations develop substantial knowledge on these material indicators that they then use to make predictions about an adversary's intentions. An examination of three cases based on 30,000 archival documents and intelligence reports shows strong support for the selective attention thesis and mixed support for two other approaches in international relations theory aimed at understanding how observers are likely to infer adversaries' political intentions: the behavior thesis and the capabilities thesis. The three cases are assessments by President Jimmy Carter and officials in his administration of Soviet intentions during the collapse of détente; assessments by President Ronald Reagan and administration officials of Soviet intentions during the end of the Cold War; and British assessments of Nazi Germany before World War II.
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom
225. Will Scotland Sink the United Kingdom's Nuclear Deterrent?
- Author:
- William Walker and Malcolm Chalmers
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- For over sixty years, the possession of nuclear weapons and practice of nuclear deterrence have been important to the United Kingdom's defense policy, self-image, and international standing. It was a partner in the Manhattan Project and had acquired its own weapons by the mid-1950s, its program thereafter assisted by cooperation agreements with the United States. Its nuclear capability has long been assigned to the NATO alliance, and it is one of the five nuclear weapon states recognized by the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Kingdom
226. Towards a Deeper EMU: An assessment of political divisions within the EU
- Author:
- Juha Jokela
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Policymakers, observers and the media have referred to a vast number of divisions in crisis-torn Europe. The EU is divided between north and south or creditors and debtors. Some have emphasised the emerged division between anti-EU and pro- EU forces. Significantly, these divisions are also manifested within the eurozone, in the form of the current differences between the French and German views, and the increasing role of the populist movements in many euro countries. Yet others have highlighted the boundary between the eurozone and the rest of the EU, and suggested that the euro countries now form the core of the Union. Relatedly, some of the non-euro members are distancing themselves from the EU – most notably the UK – while many others aim to secure their influence in the Union, even if euro membership may have been put on the back burner.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany
227. The Arctic Council as Regional Body
- Author:
- Klaus Dodds
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Arctic Council (AC) is an inter-governmental organization that, since its creation in 1996, has been widely recognized as one of the most progressive regional bodies in the world. The membership includes the eight Arctic states (A8), six permanent participants, and observer states such as the UK and Germany. From May 2013 onwards, there are also new permanent observers including China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The European Union's candidature has been delayed and subject to further review and assessment. The Council is chaired by one of the eight Arctic states for a two year period. The current chair is Canada (2013- 2015) and it will be followed by the United States (2015- 2017). The permanent participants, including the Inuit Circumpolar Council, Saami Council, and Aleut International Association, enjoy full consultative status and may address the meetings of the Council. Administrative support is provided by the Indigenous Peoples Secretariat (IPS), which is based in Copenhagen. The AC lies at the heart of debates about Arctic futures. It faces two challenges – institutional evolution and membership. For its supporters, the AC occupies center position in promoting an orderly and cooperative vision for the Arctic, but there is no shortage of commentary and punditry analyzing and predicting a rather different vision for the Arctic. As Paul Berkman asserted in the New York Times, under the heading “Preventing an Arctic Cold War,” there is little room for complacency. Berkman's analysis warned of Arctic and non-Arctic states being increasingly forced to confront difficult issues relating to policing, resource management, accessibility and navigability, alongside environmental protection. His suggestion at the end of the piece appeared, seemed rather odd, “[a]s the head of an Arctic superpower and a Nobel laureate, Mr. Obama should convene an international meeting with President Putin and other leaders of Arctic nations to ensure that economic development at the top of the world is not only sustainable, but peaceful.” Bizarrely, there is little analysis of how, and to what extent, the AC and other bodies, including the United Nations Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), are actively providing “rules of the road” (Berkman's phrase) for the Arctic region and beyond. This piece focuses on some issues that require further attention (such as the protection of the Arctic marine environment) while acknowledging how the AC has changed in the last few years. As a regional body, it operates in a strategic environment where few specialist observers believe that military conflict or destabilizing resource speculation is likely to prevail. Nonetheless, it is a work in progress with pressing demands to address. I will discuss debates about membership status and the institutional evolution to respond to experts' concerns about disasters (which might involve a shipping or drilling accident) and ongoing climate change, including manifestations such as sea ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean
- Topic:
- Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, United Kingdom, Canada, India, South Korea, and Germany
228. Dis-united Kingdoms? What Lies Behind Scotland's Referendum for Independence
- Author:
- Roger Mason
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 18 September 2014, the people of Scotland will decide whether to remain within the United Kingdom or to secede from a 400-year-long union with England and form an independent state. It is harder to predict the outcome of the referendum than it is to explain what lies behind it. Before examining its immediate context, therefore, this article surveys the history of Anglo-Scottish relations and reveals some of the historical tensions which have led to the most significant constitutional crisis that the UK has faced since the creation of the Republic of Ireland in 1922. Borrowing from the Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau's memorable description of his country's relationship with the United States, Scots often describe their country's relations with England as like sleeping with an elephant. For Scotland, as for Canada, occupying the same bed as a much larger partner is a challenging experience. The size of that challenge can be illustrated demographically: England has a population ten times larger than Scotland's. More precisely, of the total population of the United Kingdom, 83.9 percent (53 million) live in England and 8.4 percent (5.3 million) in Scotland, the rest living in Wales 4.8 percent (3 million) and Northern Ireland 2.9 percent (2 million). In terms of population, England dwarfs all three of its smaller partners put together
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Canada, England, and Scotland
229. Common Ground: U.S. and NATO Engagement with Russia in the Cyber Domain
- Author:
- Geoff Van Epps
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- Significant changes in the global strategic landscape over the past two decades include the fall of the Iron Curtain and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, accelerated globalization, increasing reliance on digital information technologies in all aspects of life, the rise of China and India, global financial crises, the political revolutions of the Arab Spring, and the emergence of violent Islamist extremism as a key feature of the geopolitical landscape. Yet at the same time, many of the key dynamics of the international arena remain unchanged from twenty years ago, including the volatility and instability of the Middle East, the lack of development in most of Africa, the ever-increasing integration of the global economy, and the preeminence of the United States as an actor in global affairs, with other states, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Russia also playing key roles.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, and Germany
230. Letters
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom