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361. Ukraine, NATO and the Black Sea

Author:
Iulian Romanyshyn
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Since its occupation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has steadily expanded military capabilities and technical infrastructure on the peninsula, transforming the region into a springboard for offensive military operations in the Black Sea and beyond. Despite growing insecurity and Russian militarization of the region over the years, the transatlantic community has not put as high of a strategic premium on the Black Sea compared to the Baltic region. Russia’s renewed aggression against Ukraine, however, has reshaped the strategic landscape, giving momentum for NATO to remedy its Black Sea defence posture. Greater military support to Ukraine and strengthened forward presence in the area would be key components of a new approach to deterring and confronting Russian aggression.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Transatlantic Relations, Militarization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Black Sea

362. The Ukrainian war economy

Author:
Dmytro Boyarchuk and Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Ukraine has been subject to full-scale Russian aggression since 24 February 2022, with major implications for Ukraine’s economic performance and economic management. Martial law has temporarily restricted civil and political rights and allowed the government to introduce command management in the economic sphere. These war-related prerogatives have been used only partly (for example, in the energy and transportation sectors, restricting convertibility of the hryvnia and banking transactions with foreign currency), while the dominant role of the private sector and market forces has been maintained in other respects. As a result of war damages and territorial losses, Ukraine’s real GDP contracted by about 30 percent in 2022. Ukraine also experienced severe balance-of-payments and budget tensions in the first months of the war. Intensification of foreign financial aid from the second half of 2022 helped to achieve relative macroeconomic stability in the first half of 2023. The prospects of the Ukrainian economy depend on the length of the war, associated damages and the size of external financial aid. Before February 2022, Ukraine’s record of economic and governance reform was mixed; the war stopped most reforms. On the other hand, obtaining European Union candidate status in June 2022 provided a new incentive to implement comprehensive governance reforms related, in particular, to the judicial system, media, national minorities, public transparency and fighting corruption.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Banking, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

363. The future of the transatlantic partnership: US perceptions and debates

Author:
Sophia Winograd, Valentina Gruarin, Cengiz Günay, and Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, altered Europe’s security architecture and long-term strategic planning. Many in Europe have shared with the Biden administration that the aggression is not only an existential threat to Ukraine but also to the liberal world order and its values. The war has revived transatlantic coordination and increased the popularity of NATO on both sides of the Atlantic. However, there are critical voices which have questioned the transatlantic commitment and its longevity. This paper examines whether and how the transatlantic partnership has been revitalized and whether it is long lasting. It does so by focusing on U.S. debates, differing opinions, and varying positions on the war and cooperation with NATO and the EU.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Partnerships, Transatlantic Relations, Debates, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

364. How African states voted on Russia’s war in Ukraine at the United Nations – and what it means for the West

Author:
Elias Götz, Jonas Geji Kaas, and Kevin Patrick Knudsen
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Most African states have not supported United Nations (UN) General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine. To win more support in Africa, the West needs to stress the importance of upholding the territorial integrity norm and engaging African states as equal partners. The West’s engagement on the continent must be about more than ‘containing’ Russia.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, United Nations, History, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus

365. Un año después...

Author:
Lila Roldán Vázquez
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
Este artículo pretende inducir una reflexión sobre las consecuencias de la guerra de Rusia en Ucrania, que ya dura nueve años, particularmente después de la invasión total el 24 de febrero de 2022, y su impacto en el escenario geopolítico internacional.
Topic:
Security, War, Sanctions, Global South, Alliance, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

366. Visible Limits of the Sino-Russian Unlimited Partnership: Are Spheres of Influence Changing in Central Asia?

Author:
Eka Javakhishvili
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine is not only causing enormous militarypolitical and economic damage to the Kremlin, but it is also gradually eroding Moscow’s traditional spheres of influence. While the Kremlin has directed all its resources to wage the war in Ukraine, Russia’s “ally” China is not wasting time, and is seeking to increase its economic and political involvement with the countries of Central Asia. China’s recent moves reveal a crack in Beijing and Moscow’s “unlimited” friendship, as the leaders of China and Russia called the partnership between the two countries back in February 2022. A visible manifestation of China’s growing influence in the Central Asian region was the China-Central Asia Summit held in May, where the host of the event, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, presented the “Grand Development Plan” for Central Asia. Russia was not invited to attend the summit; therefore, the future cooperation plans between the regional countries were discussed without a Russian representative. The great development plan proposed by China covers the main aspects of cooperation - infrastructural development, strengthening of economic ties, and security challenges in the region. By proposing the mentioned plan, Xi Jinping expressed his willingness to give a new impetus to China’s cooperation with Central Asian countries, but without the official involvement of Moscow. Holding such a high-level summit in China indicates that Beijing is trying to conduct regional policy on its own, without its “ally” Russia, and, in certain areas, without even taking into account Russia’s interests. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s influence on Central Asia and its role in the region is declining, and China has an ideal moment to fill the vacuum in the absence of Moscow. In addition, Beijing needs to develop its energy and transport land corridors to transport Chinese goods to Europe, for which China is ready to invest billions in Central Asia, and at the same time, to take the regional security initiative on itself. One of the main priorities of China’s foreign policy is to bring the resource-rich countries of Central Asia under its sphere of influence, which obviously means tightening Russia’s interests. It can be assumed that China is aiming to become the dominant political/ economic/military power in the region. Russia’s current military-economic difficulties caused by the war with Ukraine allow Beijing to offer regional countries more prosperity and security guarantees than Moscow can. So the following question arises - is the historically established influence of Russia in Central Asia weakening, while China is gradually strengthening its positioning in the region?
Topic:
International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

367. Sporadic Crises in Europe in the Support for Ukraine: Why the West Should Keep to its Primary Path

Author:
Nino Chanadiri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, there has been ongoing discussion about whether or not the collective West is getting tired of supporting Ukraine. Despite the fact that, overall, the West continues to express support by providing assistance, and Washington and Brussels1 repeatedly state that continued assistance is crucial to keep Ukraine fighting for its independence, there are still periodic attempts by some actors within the European Union to suggest peace treaties that might lead to a ceasefire as soon as possible. For example, in spring 2022, Italy presented a 4-point peace plan that concentrated on demilitarizing the front lines; declaring Ukraine a neutral country, with some unidentified states guaranteeing its security; having an agreement between Russia and Ukraine about the status of Crimea and Donbas that would give those parts of Ukraine full autonomy in every sphere but officially would leave them parts of Ukraine; and having a multilateral agreement signed between Russia, Ukraine and the EU about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the removal of the sanctions.2 However, the plan never saw success because it left space for legitimate concerns associated with Russia not fulfilling its responsibilities and continuing its aggressive policy both against Ukraine and against other neighbors. Italy has had opposition from various political groups to the sending of arms to Ukraine, and Prime Minister Meloni, who has generally been supportive towards Ukraine, has been voicing concerns about “fatigue… from all sides”.3
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

368. Ukraine’s State-Civil Partnership to Reform the Security Sector

Author:
Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld and Bob Deen
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Reforming Ukraine’s large security sector and overcoming its Soviet-era legacies has been a major challenge since independence. Ukrainian civil society has been vociferously demanding a transition towards a transparent and well-governed security sector that upholds the interests of the population rather than keeping it under control. This is also a priority for the Ukrainian Government and its international partners, as a prerequisite for further integration with the European Union and NATO. This report therefore analyses the changing role of Ukrainian civil society by investigating seven examples of key reforms of the security sector and puts forward recommendations for Ukraine’s international partners regarding their cooperation with Ukrainian civil society organisations (CSOs).
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

369. Preparing for a Longer War: Is a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia possible by 2024?

Author:
Stefan Meister, András Rácz, and Judith Heckenthaler
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has failed and is now a protracted war of attrition. Russia has adapted to this situation and prepared for a longer war. The legitimization of the Putin system is increasingly built around the war. As long as Ukraine has no security guarantees, a ceasefire is not realistic from either side. Therefore, the focus should be on protecting the territory Ukraine controls and defining together with the Western partners how security can be provided and what victory means.
Topic:
Security, Vladimir Putin, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

370. Ukrainian Organisations' Response to Russia's Full-Scale Invasion

Author:
Maryna Slobodyanuk, Lyudmila Cherkez, and Emma Mateo
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Join the Harriman Institute for an event with Ukrainian activists discussing how their organisations have responded to the 2022 escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine. We will be joined virtually by activists representing two organisations: Truth Hounds, and TAPS Ukraine. Both organisations were in operation prior to 2022, but their work was significantly impacted by the challenges associated with the full-scale invasion. Maryna Slobodyanuk will discuss the work of Truth Hounds, where she is the Head of the Analytical Department. Truth Hounds has been documenting war crimes and other serious human rights violations in Ukraine since 2014. Lyudmila Cherkez will share the work of TAPS Ukraine, where she is head of communication. TAPS Ukraine is based in Dnipro, 100km from the front lines, and has been supporting those affected by military loss since 2018. TAPS Ukraine was also involved in the creation of the Coordinating Headquarters of Dnipro Volunteers, one of the largest volunteer hubs established in Eastern Ukraine following 24 February 2022. This hybrid event is open to the public and you are welcome to join us online or in person. The event will be moderated by Emma Mateo.
Topic:
Civil Society, Activism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe