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1191. Averting Crisis in Ukraine

Author:
Steven Pifer
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Ukraine faces a year of challenge in 2009. In the aftermath of the August 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict, Kiev must cope with an increasingly assertive Russian foreign policy. The Kremlin regards Ukraine as part of its sphere of privileged interests, has made clear its unhappiness with Kiev's desire to integrate into the European and Euro-Atlantic communities, and will attempt to disrupt that course. The possibility exists, more real following the August conflict, of a serious confrontation between Kiev and Moscow over issues such as Ukraine's geopolitical orientation and the Black Sea Fleet.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1192. NATO Enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia: Old Wine in New Bottles?

Author:
Dušica Lazarević
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
This article examines the question of possible NATO enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia, although it will not venture to provide a firm answer as to its likelihood. The aim of the essay is to offer an accurate analysis of the aspiration of these two former Soviet republics to join the Alliance, with a primary focus on relations between the West (in this case, NATO) and Russia, the successor of the Soviet legacy. In the process, it will try to uncover the underlying principle of NATO enlargement as such. To this end, the article will use geopolitics as a theoretical background to explain the behavior of the parties involved, carefully taking into consideration the specific position of NATO as an alliance. Furthermore, it will elaborate the debates over each post-Cold War round of enlargement, with special focus on the first post-Cold War round of NATO enlargement, as this event established the fact of Alliance expansion and laid out the rules for future enlargement rounds. Studying the positions of Ukraine and Georgia in the context of cooperation with NATO, the article addresses the differences and similarities of the two countries, and examines separately their relations with NATO, Russia, and the United States. The overall conclusion is that the prospects for Ukraine and Georgia to accede to NATO membership are not bright, but at the same time they are not completely without prospects. Their ultimate outcome will depend on the terms—whether explicit or tacit— of the ongoing transatlantic bargain between the U.S. and Russia.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Ukraine, and Georgia

1193. Neighbourhood Europeanization through ENP: The Case of Ukraine

Author:
Andrea Gawrich, Inna Melnykovska, and Rainer Schweickert
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
We contribute to the literature of European Studies by introducing the approach of Neighbourhood Europeanization. Based on insights from Membership and Enlargement Europeanization, we reveal important inconsistencies of Neighbourhood Europeanization through the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) as well as a lack of robust empirical support for its effectiveness. We also define core dimensions and determinants of Neighbourhood Europeanization and implement this analytical framework for the case of Ukraine. Our analysis clearly demonstrates substantial asymmetries in the ENP for Ukraine across three dimensions we chose – democracy promotion, economic cooperation, and Justice and Home Affairs, which clearly reflect the inconsistency of the ENP concept, that is top-down formulation of EU interests combined with weak conditionality. However, our analysis shows that despite Ukraine's growing frustration because of the lack of a membership perspective, there is a lot of room for keeping up Ukraine's motivation for Europeanization reforms. Especially, widening and strengthening the linkage-mechanisms would allow to overcome ENP inconsistency and to improve the effectiveness of Neighborhood Europeanization.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1194. U.S.-Russia Relations Chronology

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, and France

1195. U.S.-Russia Relations

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
U.S.-Russia relations began the quarter with an informal, yet cordial summit in Moscow in early July. The two presidents met again in New York and Pittsburgh in late September and agreed to push forward a number of agreements, most notably covering arms control and cooperation in Afghanistan. The two also appeared to agree that the incipient Iranian nuclear program needs urgent attention. In what some viewed as a huge concession from Washington, the Obama administration announced prior to the Pittsburgh G20 meeting that it was scrapping a controversial missile defense system that was due to break ground soon in Poland and the Czech Republic. This move, combined with vague Russian promises of support for sanctions against the newly emboldened Iranian regime, gave observers hope that relations could find a common strategic footing. Nevertheless, optimism surrounding U.S.-Russia relations is strictly cautious, as major areas of disagreement still remain, including most notably Moscow's hostile relationship with the governments of Georgia and Ukraine.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, New York, and Ukraine

1196. The Eastern Partnership and Estonia: Policy Recommendations

Author:
Merle Maigre and Kaarel Kaas
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
ICDS researchers Kaarel Kaas and Merle Maigre have completed a Policy Brief with recommendations and suggestions for Estonia’s engagement with the EU’s Eastern Partnership. The European Union’s Eastern Partnership establishes a new political instrument for the promotion of democracy and economic reforms in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood. Since the war in Georgia in August 2008 and the gas crisis in the winter of 2008/2009, it has become clear that the developments in Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and the South Caucasus have a direct impact on the security of the EU and Estonia, as well. It is, therefore, in the interests of Estonia to provide maximum support for our eastern partners in their reform efforts and convergence with the EU.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Estonia, South Caucasus, and Belarus

1197. Swedish model of social and economic development

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Although Ukraine and Sweden have had close historic ties and maintain an active dialogue now, Ukrainians still little know of that Nordic country. It remains a secret for many our compatriots, what prompted the two geographically remote nations to ally 300 years ago, when the fate of our independence was decided, and to be partners today, when the fate of Ukraine’s European future is at stake. Answers to those questions may be found in both rational and irrational domains, but the undisputed fact is that Ukraine and Sweden are united by something more than the national colours.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Sweden

1198. Present-day challenges to Ukraine’s security

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the global security environment saw deep changes that prompted the conclusion of a deficit of security on all levels and speculations of a new Cold War. So-called “new threats” (along with reinstitution of “old” ones) acquired an integral character and demonstrated an extreme speed of spread to entire regions and the whole world. Meanwhile, difficult processes associated with emergence of new centres of influence, along with changes in the list of the leading world actors, led to restoration and toughening of geopolitical competition and brought about aggravation of “frozen” conflicts and emergence of new conflict areas, including in the Euro-Atlantic space. Trends of the decade brought growth of Russia’s ambitions of regional and global leadership and creation of a “privileged” area of its interests in the post-Soviet space. To push its position, Moscow resorted to economic pressure, used energy resources as a tool of foreign policy, “encouraged interest” of separate states and their officials in supporting its positions and initiatives, including those concerning third parties. All this caused tension in the relations between Russia and the EU, USA and NATO. The security sector saw ever hotter disputes about NATO enlargement, deployment of ABM elements in Europe, the Balkan events, the military campaign in Afghanistan, etc; on the European side, the problem of Russia joining the European Energy Charter and its Treaty, the Eastern Partnership initiative, plans of joint participation in reconstruction of the Ukrainian gas transportation system came to the forefront. Those processes not only caused a new confrontation between Russia and the West but also revealed the lack of unity between the USA and the EU, within the EU and NATO on many security issues, including building relations with Russia. That was largely prompted by difficult internal processes, related: in the EU – with its expansion and structural and institutional changes under the Lisbon Treaty, in NATO – with problems of functional, structural and resource sufficiency and different opinions as to the ways and goals of the Alliance transformation. Finally, Russia’s suspension of the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, legislative establishment of possible use of its Armed Forces outside Russian borders and its role in the Caucasian conflict in August 2008 questioned the effectiveness of the international European and the whole Euro-Atlantic security system, resting on the Helsinki agreements, arrangements and guarantees of 1990s. Ukraine found itself in an especially vulnerable situation, from the security viewpoint.3
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and National Security
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1199. State land policy in Ukraine: standing and development strategy

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Ukraine possesses vast land resources. As of January 1, 2009, its land stock amounted to 60,354.8 thousand hectares, or almost 6% of the European territory1 . In particular, farming land accounted for nearly 19% of the European, arable land – almost 27%. Per capita area of farming land in Ukraine is the highest among the European countries – 0.9 hectares, including 0.7 hectares of arable land (against the European average of 0.44 and 0.25 hectares, respectively). Black soil in Ukraine, according to different estimates, occupies from 15.6 to 17.4 million hectares, or nearly 8% of the world stock. By and large, at the beginning of 2000s, the standard monetary value of land resources in Ukraine was estimated at UAH 330 trillion2 . Meanwhile, the structure of the land resources and land use shows rather serious disparities whose deepening may pose a threat to the quality of the natural and life environment, and the effectiveness of the business activity, i.e., sustainable development of the national economy. For instance, Ukraine demonstrates an extremely high rate of development of the life environment: over 92% of its territory is involved in economic circulation, and only some 8% (4.5 million hectares) is in its natural state. The tillage rate of the territory is similarly high – over 54% (in developed European countries – no more than 35%). The actual forest rate of the Ukrainian territory is only 16%, which is insufficient for the environmental balance (European average – 25-30%). The territory under surface waters steadily goes down (from 1991 – by 12.5 thousand hectares), further aggravating the problem of shortage of water resources in Ukraine. There are problems in land relations, whose reformation, commenced in 1991, is not over. Respectively, creation of the land legislation, registers and databases necessary to ensure land ownership rights and effective control of observance of the norms and rules of proper land use remain unaccomplished. In such situation, the quality of the state land policy, its effectiveness, professionalism, correspondence to principles of proper management of the national land resources acquire particular importance. Discussed below are some features of the state land policy and its main problems hindering effective use of the main national wealth – land, free access to that wealth for individuals and legal entities, unconditional respect for ownership rights.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Governance, Land Rights, and Land
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1200. Ukraine-Russia: from crisis – to effective partnership

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, the Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical state. Conflicts are on the rise in the key fields of cooperation – political, socio-economic, humanitarian. A number of problems complicating bilateral contacts actually remain “frozen”. The parties’ positions divided on a number of key foreign policy issues, the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine and Russia are totally different. The process of estrangement of the state and political elites of the two countries goes on, while the political-diplomatic dialogue acquired numerous traits of mutual accusations and demarches. The intensity of bilateral contacts between representatives of the political establishment, expert communities, business circles, academic communities and the public notably goes down. Numerous declarations of Kyiv and Moscow of “normalisation, rationalisation, de-politicisation” of relations did not lead to success. Probably, the most alarming is that the recent years saw deterioration of relations between citizens of the two countries. Sociologists record growth of estrangement, prejudice, enmity. This trend witnesses the threat of breakup of traditional socio-cultural ties of the two countries. Such processes and trends give grounds to note a systemic crisis in the Ukraine-Russia partnership, unreadiness of the parties for positive reformatting of cooperation. The atmosphere of relations was strongly undermined by the conflict in the Caucasus (August 2008) that affected the security architecture on the regional and global scale, the Ukraine-Russia “gas war” of January 2009, which involved countries of the European continent. Escalation of conflicts poses a double-edged threat, devaluates “geopolitical assets” of both countries. For Russia, there is a threat of staying an unpopular regional power player overburdened by the post-imperial syndrome, with inadequate claims of control of the post-Soviet space. For Ukraine – a threat of staying in a state of uncertainty, transition, in the “grey zone” of collision of interests of the West and East. Unfortunately, there are grounds to suggest that in the near future, the character of bilateral relations will not fundamentally change. Another “unfriendly pause” arose in the dialogue of Kyiv and Moscow, most probably, in connection with the forthcoming presidential elections in Ukraine. What is also evident is that such state of affairs does not meet the national interests of both Ukraine and Russia, aggravates the regional situation, complicates contacts of the two countries with the European community, NATO, and the USA. There is no alternative to establishment of good-neighbourly partnership between Ukraine and Russia. Such partnership should rest on the European norms and rules, parity and mutual benefit, transparency, mutual respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity, consideration of each other’s interests,
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine