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1171. New Geopolitics of the South Caucasus

Author:
Fareed Shafee
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
The article examines new trends and development in the South Caucasus. The author identifies five factors which affect the foreign policy of regional countries as well as regional powers. These factors are the Georgian-Russian war of 2008, the US-Russian “reset”, the global financial crisis, the political transformation in the countries which have undergone “color revolutions”, and the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. The author believes that the change in the geopolitical layout of the region will turn the countries of the South Caucasus further from the West. At the same time, they are not going to be fully embraced by Russia. A balancing act between the US, EU and Russia will be most likely their policy choice.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Ukraine, Caucasus, and Georgia

1172. External democracy promotion in Ukraine and Moldova: The impact of the European Union

Author:
Maria Ruxandra Lupu
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
After the European Union's eastward enlargement, the new eastern neighbours are now among others, Ukraine and Moldova. They have been torn between adopting a pro-Western course and staying loyal to the traditional alliance with Russia. This dilemma has shaped the path to domestic socio-political reforms in these countries. This Working Paper by Maria Ruxandra Lupu looks at the role of the EU in supporting the political transformation of Moldova and Ukraine after independence in 1991 and at the domestic context which is of crucial importance if democracy promotion efforts are to be successful. It argues that, so far, the EU has failed to tailor its offerings to fit into the prevailing Ukrainian and Moldovan context and that an agreement with more specific advantages but also more specific demands would probably stimulate more reforms. The unstable domestic developments in the two countries has also had an important role concerning the impact of the EU's neighbourhood policy.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Moldova

1173. Radical Islam in the North Caucasus

Author:
Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
As Kyrgyzstan plunges into crisis and the threat of a second Afghanistan in Central Asia looms large, the situation in the "Big Caucasus" seems less pressing and thus overshadowed. The worst scenarios predicted by analysts and politicians for the period of the 2008 August war have not been realized. The Russian attempt to "replace the regime" of Mikhail Saakashvili or apply the Georgian pattern in Ukraine, expected by many in the West, has not taken place. Neither have the attempts from the West (the United States, NATO, and others) to "nudge Georgia into a rematch," which were expected in Moscow. Nonetheless, the Caucasus region remains one of the most vulnerable spaces in Eurasia. In the Caucasus, the first precedent of a revision of borders between the former Soviet republics was established. For the first time in Eurasia, and particularly in the Caucasus, partially recognized states have emerged. While their independence is denied by the United Nations, it is recognized by the Russian Federation, a permanent member of the UN Security Council. After the "hot August" of 2008, Moscow demonstrated its willingness to play the role of a revisionist state for the first time since 1991. Russia defines the "Big Caucasus" as the sphere of its vital interests and priorities and consequently pretends to be a key stakeholder for the whole region.
Topic:
NATO, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Central Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moscow, and United Nations

1174. Security of Europe's Gas Supply: EU Vulnerability

Author:
Andrew Macintosh
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Clearly the natural gas market is experiencing considerable change: a second Ukraine-Russia gas crisis, a collapse in the price of natural gas, a new European natural gas security of supply regulation and the mass production of natural gas from unconventional sources in the US as a result of technological advancements, which could yet have an impact on the EU. This Policy Brief is a summation of the European Union's vulnerability to natural gas supply security risks.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1175. Social Capital Development in Multiethnic Crimea: Global, Regional and Local Constraints and Opportunities

Author:
Milana V. Nikolko and David B. Carment
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
This article analyses social capital in Ukraine, using the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC) as a case study. To understand how a multiethnic society like Crimea can build and strengthen social capital in the face of economic and political challenges, we focus on the relationship between global, regional and local politics; the subsequent impact on people's work and private lives; and the actions which can be undertaken by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), international organizations and the state in order to avoid the detrimental trends the region is currently experiencing. Regarding social capital, Ukraine provides an enigmatic example as the country has myriad civil society actors who should, theoretically, constitute the cornerstone of social capital formation and interethnic cooperation. Our findings suggest, however, that there is still a long way to go before trust and shared values become a basis for political and economic growth in Ukraine. An integral element for improving public trust in Ukraine, specifically in Crimea, can be found by examining the impact of global and regional processes on interethnic cooperation within local groups, their specific initiatives and the ways in which they have developed mechanisms for avoiding unresolved conflict.
Topic:
Civil Society and Development
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Crimea

1176. Ukraine's Defense Engagement with the United States

Author:
Gary D. Espinas
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Ukraine faces a number of challenges, including a deep economic crisis and a tumultuous political system. These problems, however, only underscore the importance of continued U.S. engagement with Ukraine. The causes of European stability and prosperity are best served by a Ukraine that is democratic, secure in its borders, and integrated into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. This has been the U.S. position since Ukraine's independence in 1991. In addition to its internal challenges, Ukraine faces an external challenge: Russia. Recent Russian actions suggest that Moscow still considers Ukraine to be within its sphere of influence. Furthermore, Russia's conflict with Georgia in August 2008 demonstrates that Moscow is willing to use a wide variety of tools, including military force, to establish and enforce its sphere of influence. Such attitudes threaten to return Europe to the destructive balance of power politics of its past, rather than promote a peace in the region based on the right of sovereign nations to determine their own future. Ukraine has made a choice to be a part of Europe by undertaking a number of reforms in order to become a truly independent and democratic country. In the interest of greater European stability and prosperity, and in recognition of Ukraine's positive engagement, the United States must continue its efforts to assist Ukraine on the path to democracy.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Moscow

1177. Ukraine’s Foreign Policy: Gains, Problems, and Prospects

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Among the main tasks and functions of the foreign policy, I wish in the first place to mention the following. First, the foreign policy is to provide reliable external guarantees for national security, state sovereignty and territorial integrity. Second, the authorities’ actions on the international arena should concentrate on creation of a comprehensive effective system to protect the rights of Ukrainian citizens abroad. Third, the foreign policy is to utmost promote the national economy development, secure a decent place for Ukraine in the international division of labour, promote interests of domestic business on the world markets. And finally – Ukraine’s action in the foreign policy should be consistent, predictable, responsible and clear for our partners both in the West and in the East. Effective attainment of those tasks requires, on one hand, internal stability, consolidation of the lead political forces and institutes of governance, which will ensure public legitimacy of the foreign political course. On the other – optimal, balanced and clearly coordinated mechanisms of foreign political activity need to be created. Unfortunately, recently, those preconditions have not been fully provided in Ukraine. The Foreign Ministry was working in difficult conditions of domestic instability and under the influence of the global economic crisis. But even in such conditions, the foreign office managed to achieve substantial gains and improve the situation in the main foreign policy domains. However, along with gains, Ukraine’s foreign policy now faces a number of challenges that, in absence of an adequate response, can bring about unfavourable trends and hinder attainment of Ukraine’s national interests. Reversal of those trends presents an urgent and priority task for the new government formed in Ukraine after the 2010 presidential elections.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1178. Ukraine-Russia Relations in the Energy Sector: Status, Recent Development Trends, and Prospects

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Separation of Ukraine-Russia bilateral relations in the energy sector is rather conventional, since they objectively fit into the relations of both countries with a third party – first of all, countries of Europe (in particular, the EU) as consumers of energy resources transported across the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, both from the viewpoint of the process chain (producer – transit state – consumer) and from the economy viewpoint (seller – provider of transportation services – buyer) those relations should be viewed in a trilateral format.1 More than that, it may be argued that problems stockpiled in that sector of relations between Ukraine and Russia and in Europe in general may be solved solely in such trilateral format.2 On the other hand, since early 2000s Russia has been insistently pursuing a policy translating relations with partners in the energy sector into a bilateral format where it is usually stronger and uses that advantage to defend and promote its interests and/or the interests of its state monopolies and separate financial-industrial groups. That is why there are grounds to view the Ukraine-Russia relations in the energy sector as bilateral, but with account of presence of a third party there, first of all, the EU, as Ukraine declares its integration in it and is now engaged in formulation of common norms and rules of the European energy markets. This section briefly outlines interim results and problems of the Ukraine-Russia relations in the oil, gas and nuclear sectors – more interrelated and interdependent than other domains of the energy sector.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Oil, Bilateral Relations, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1179. After the Orange Era: Economic Prospects in Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Boyarchuk, Kateryna Ruskykh, Olga Kravets, and Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
When Victor Yanukovich won Ukraine’s presidential election in February 2010, it marked the official end of the Orange Revolution. Soon after taking office, Yanukovich managed to form a loyal parliamentary coalition in a legally dubious way and, consequently, appointed his ally Mykola Azarov as Prime Minister. Indeed this decision may have made state governance more predictable and even provided for shortterm economic stability, but it may have come at the expense of Ukraine’s democratic freedom and long-term economic prospects.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Institutions, Economic Stability, Post-Soviet Space, and Victor Yanukovich
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

1180. Transit Troubles: Pipelines as a Source of Conflict

Author:
Paul Stevens
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Recent events between Russia and Ukraine at the start of 2009 and Russia and Georgia in 2008 have brought transit pipelines back into the media spotlight. Any reading of the history of transit oil and gas pipelines suggests a tendency to produce conflict and disagreement, often resulting in the cessation of throughput, sometimes for a short period and sometimes for longer. It is tempting to attribute this to bad political relations between neighbours. This is certainly part of the story, but also important is the nature of the 'transit terms' – tariffs and offtake terms – whereby transit countries are rewarded for allowing transit. Put simply, the trouble with transit pipelines has a significant economic basis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia