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1131. Not Another Transnistria: How sustainable is separatism in Eastern Ukraine?

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The situation in Eastern Ukraine is often compared with that of Transnistria, the separatist region of Moldova. However, the two cases differ for a number of reasons, all of which will make the “Novorossiya” project much harder for Russia to sustain than Transnistria. First and foremost, unlike Transnistria, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in their current shape will be unable to influence the everyday political and economic functioning of Ukraine. Vis-à-vis the rest of Ukraine, they are much smaller than Transnistria is in relation to Moldova. The main energy pipelines leading to Ukraine do not cross the separatist territories, and with the economic ties getting severed, the main instrumental function of a frozen conflict – namely to constantly influence and destabilize the target country – is likely to be lost. There are also several other factors, including: the lack of ethnic, national, linguistic or cultural background that would provide identity foundations for the Novorossiya project; the reliance of the separatists on the continuous, massive presence of the Russian military; the damage already inflicted on Russia’s international reputation; the effect on Russian domestic politics; the need for considerable financial assistance from Russia to the separatist territories; and the risk of increasing soft security challenges directly affecting Russia. In addition to all this, it cannot be guaranteed that the separatist elites will always be fully obedient to the will of Moscow. The a priori readiness to defend and support the action of the local authorities will limit Moscow’s room for maneouvre. Costly both politically and economically, the Novorossiya project is able to serve the Russian strategic objectives vis-à-vis the rest of Ukraine much less than Transnistria was able to do so vis-à-vis Moldova. Hence, one probable scenario is a further escalation of hostilities to expand the separatist-controlled territory, which may unfold relatively soon. However, in the medium term, the gradual restoration of Ukraine’s constitutional order in the territory should also be considered possible, within the framework of a larger international compromise and provided that reforms progress in Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Separatism, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

1132. Corruption, Impunity, and Current Reforms in Ukraine

Author:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This briefing paper assesses the situation in Ukraine with respect to democratic reforms being undertaken in the country following the mass uprising that ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014. It examines issues of corruption and impunity, as well as the historical divide between eastern and western Ukraine at the root of ongoing conflict in the country. It is based largely on extended interviews conducted with representatives of government, civil society and international organizations in Kyiv.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, Democracy, Conflict, Impunity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1133. Ukraine's Choice: European Association Agreement or Eurasian Union?

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Since gaining independence in December 1991, Ukraine has vacillated between the European Union and Russia for economic and political cooperation. Until recently neither had offered Ukraine much, but in the last few months, things have heated up. Ukraine's intention to sign an Association Agreement for political association and economic integration with the European Union has raised a furor in the Kremlin, which is now trying to block Ukraine from aligning itself with the European Union. Moscow has imposed trade sanctions in clear violation of its obligations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and is pursuing an intense confrontation.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, and Moscow

1134. Towards 'EuroNest 2.0': What should the next European Parliament learn from its predecessor?

Author:
Hrant Kostanyan and Bruno Vandecasteele
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Besides the Eastern Partnership's (EaP) bilateral and multilateral framework and the Civil Society Forum, the European Union (EU) engages with the EaP countries – Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan – through multilateral parliamentary cooperation, namely within the EuroNest Parliamentary Assembly (EuroNest PA).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Armenia, and Belarus

1135. The Search for an Exit from the Poland–Belarus Deadlock on Small Border Traffic

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A Polish–Belarusian agreement on small border traffic (SBT) could revive border trade and open new opportunities for regional cooperation. The Belarusian authorities, however, do not want the agreement to enter into force and treat it as a form of pressure on Warsaw. Poland may attempt to influence a change in this position by indicating the potential benefits to the Belarusian economy as well as to border areas if the agreement is implemented and noting the high level of support among residents who live there.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Ukraine

1136. Narrow Focus, Broad Vision: A Strategic View of the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Emmet Tuohy and Anna Bulakh
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) initiative was launched with high hopes of spreading some of the fruits of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements to the countries on Europe’s eastern periphery. The main objectives of the program—targeted at six states, three in Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)—have been to support these countries in terms of economic and political reform, socio-economic development, and other fields, with the long-term objective of promoting deeper cooperation with the EU. In 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) initiative was launched with high hopes of spreading some of the fruits of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements to the countries on Europe’s eastern periphery. The main objectives of the program—targeted at six states, three in Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)—have been to support these countries in terms of economic and political reform, socio-economic development, and other fields, with the long-term objective of promoting deeper cooperation with the EU. Unfortunately, in the last four years these high expectations have simply not been met. While there have been elements of success, the record of the EP has also demonstrated the limits of the EU’s foreign policy influence […] Accordingly, the upcoming Vilnius summit—marking the fourth anniversary of the establishment of the EP—will be an opportunity for the EU to take stock and reevaluate not only its perception of the partnership states, but also its broader foreign policy objectives and the instruments through which it seeks to accomplish them. It has been argued that the key reason for supporting the Eastern Partnership is because it enables the EU to spread its values. Yet, this is precisely the thing that the European Union cannot (and should not) be doing at this point in time. […] Yet, even while the EU may not have the capacity to create a wide space for the European values of consensus and liberal democracy stretching across the Eurasian landmass from Portugal to the Pacific, it can and does have the ability to deepen cooperation with its Eastern partners on areas that support its interest. In this paper, we concentrate on the most important such dimension: energy security.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

1137. Judicial Reform in Ukraine: Current Results, Prospects and Risks of the Constitutional Stage

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The process of establishing the judiciary in Ukraine since its independence has been quite inconsistent and contradictory – not only due to its heritage, but also because it has often been accompanied by acute political confrontation and attempts of opposing political forces and governmental teams to gain control over the judiciary. Reformation activity that was initiated and implemented in this period did not lead to establishment of an independent and fair court in Ukraine. After the 2010 Presidential Election, the new President Viktor Yanukovych announced that another judicial reform was going to take place, which led to dramatic changes in the national judiciary. Analysis of these changes and their consequences gives reasons to assume that, through this reform, the President managed to enhance his control over judicial authority, to restrict its independence, and to weaken self-government of judges. Significant rotation amongst judges also took place. In general, it has considerably deteriorated judicial situation in Ukraine. Today, the judicial reform has reached its final – constitutional – stage. On 10 October 2013, the Verkhovna Rada pre-approved the Presidential draft Law “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine Strengthening the Independence of Judges”. The corresponding Decree of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine was supported by 244 deputies. All opposition factions of the Parliament (Batkivshchyna, UDAR, Svoboda) manifested against adoption of the law claiming that implementation of its provisions would compromise not only the judicial independence, but also the democracy in Ukraine. The course of preparation and adoption of this draft Law (obtaining, inter alia, positive resolution of the Venice Commission) revealed tendencies that have been characteristic of the 2010 judiciary reform since its initiation. Thus, national legislation in the recent years has been using European standards in quite a peculiar way by borrowing the form and filling it up with “appropriate” contents. In fact, what we have now is not an approximation of national laws to international judicial norms and standards, but adjusting these norms to situational needs by using controlled and dependent judiciary in Ukraine. Hence, this is a selective adoption of recommendations and guidelines of international institutions. As it is widely known, the Venice Commission gave a generally positive opinion on the draft Law mentioned above. It was this draft (as well as the resolution of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine and the declaration signed by 30 deputies of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe) that the President’s representative and deputies of the Party of the Regions faction mostly relied on when encouraging their colleagues to support pre-approving the bill. Accepting the above-mentioned documents of European institutions we should obviously have some reservations. Firstly, the draft law contains genuine “European” provisions able to deceive European structures that evaluate new laws from their own European perspective. Secondly, current evaluations of the “Ukrainian progress” by European institutions have somewhat enforced nature stipulated by soon-to-happen Vilnius summit and possibly by the Association Agreement to be signed between the European Union and Ukraine at the summit. While mainly stressing its positive progress towards the association, Europe also seeks to maintain Ukraine’s European integration prospects. Thirdly, there are reasons to assume that current authorities have used peculiar means to push its legislative initiatives not only inside (in the Parliament and Constitutional Court), but also outside the country – on the international realm. Preliminary approval of the Presidential draft Law on amending the Constitution has had a dramatic impact on the judicial reform. On the one hand, it has enabled to legitimise the key legislative changes approved in 2010 and to enshrine provisions in the Constitutions, implementation of which may politicise the judiciary to an even bigger extent and increase the dependence of judges. On the other hand, it has generated a political and expert discussion aimed at searching for a compromise, which results might involve the following: excluding the most risky provisions for the independence of judges and courts, at least, and preparing a new bill approved by all key political forces of the country, at best. Current situation calls for ensuring fair and independent justice, as well as stimulates governmental representatives, opposition and the society to look for optimal ways out.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Constitution, Judiciary, and Norms
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1138. Ukraine's European Integration: Internal Factors and External Influences

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, making an ultimate choice over its integration path is a sensitive and highly pressing issue for Ukraine. In November 2013, the 3rd summit of the Eastern Partnership in Vilnius is to see the signing of the Association Agreement, which aims for political association and economic integration, including a deep and comprehensive free trade area. This is a qualitatively new level of cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels based on strategic perspective. In fact, the Agreement will mark the start of implementing the far-reaching reforms in different sectors of domestic life in Ukraine designed to draw the country closer to meeting the standards of a state-candidate for accession to the EU. Apparently, the success of the Agreement remains conditional on joint efforts on behalf of the authorities, opposition, civil institutions, and Ukrainian society in general. One should keep in mind that the signing of the Agreement will give a start to the long process of its ratification by national parliaments of the EU countries. However, there exists a real opportunity to ensure practical implementation of some items of the document in the near future, which will give an impetus to strengthening contacts between Kyiv and Brussels and promote internal transformations in Ukraine. If the document is not signed or implemented too slowly and inconsistently, as was the case with prior arrangements with the EU, Ukraine will lose its historic opportunity. Meanwhile, the Customs Union countries (first of all, Russia) step up efforts to have Ukraine join that alliance, and later – the Eurasian Economic Union. That said, the Customs Union leaders see the Memorandum of Deeper Integration between Ukraine and the Eurasian Economic Commission signed on 31 May 2013, as the first step on the road to Ukraine’s Eurasian integration. The two processes – preparations for signing of the Association Agreement with the EU on the one hand, and new attempts of Russia to involve Ukraine in the Eurasian integration on the other – happen to coincide in time. At that, representatives of both the EU and the Customs Union speak of a need for a clear choice – Ukraine has to either sign the Agreement of Association with the EU, or join the Customs Union. Integration projects of Brussels and Moscow in the post-Soviet space differ in nature, substance and goals. Russia, while trying to create a regional structure counterbalancing the EU on the European continent, uses “energy incentives” to seduce Ukraine. At that, no attention has been paid to ensuring democratic nature of the country’s development. For Brussels, proper democracy, civil society, rule of law, independent judicial system and respect for human rights and freedoms have always played a decisive role in bringing Ukraine closer to European integration. Choosing between two integration lines means choosing between different basic and fundamental values, between two different models of Ukraine’s further development. Ukraine either joins the EU uniting European countries on the basis of European norms, rules and standards, or becomes a member of a union of post-Soviet states with transitional economies and numerous problems with democracy. Ukraine’s European choice is strongly influenced by a number of internal and external factors. The internal factors hindering Ukraine’s movement towards the EU include the practice of selective justice, weak electoral legislation, lack of real anti-corruption efforts, and slow pace of reforms envisaged by the Association Agenda. Solving these problems has been prioritised by the EU. The same was indicated in the conclusions of the EU Council of Ministers (10 December 2012) and the so-called “Füle list”, released later. The external factors include strong geopolitical influence exerted on Ukraine by both the EU and Russia. Today, this influence is growing with Moscow and Brussels showing strong willingness to see Ukraine join their integration projects. The analysis of the situation cited in this report shows that the European way of development best of all goes in line with national interests of Ukraine. It is also evident that Ukraine’s European choice should not be an alternative to the development of mutually advantageous, equal and transparent relations in different sectors with countries of the Customs Union, first of all – Russia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Energy Policy, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1139. The Role of International Organizations in the National Security of Ukraine

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
On 17 September 2013, Kyiv hosted the International Conference “The Role of International Organisations in the National Security of Ukraine”. The Conference was organised by the Razumkov Centre jointly with the NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine and the Ukrainian Diplomatic Academy under the auspices of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, and with the support from the Embassies of Norway, Poland and Switzerland in Ukraine and the Ministry of Defence of Estonia. The event had taken place two months before the EU Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine and the EU were supposed to sign the Association Agreement. After long and tough talks between the Ukrainian authorities and European partners, the parties came close to an uneasy compromise. It seemed that the willingness to sign the Agreement – at least on the part of Ukraine – was beyond doubt. Almost all the panellists, despite some reservations, expressed their confidence in the strategic importance of such a step for Ukraine’s future. Furthermore, the time was approaching to sum up the results of Ukraine’s chairmanship in the OSCE – one of the leading international organisations dealing with European security issues. That is why, the Conference has become an important element of fervent discussions both in Ukraine and abroad about the future of security and sustainable development in Europe. The agenda proposed by the Conference organisers covered different security domains: military, economic, humanitarian, and energy sector. Despite a specific subject matter allocated to each panel and the appropriate selection of participants, all the aspects were closely interwoven during the discussions, which directly reflected the nature of current threats and challenges and complex interconnections of different security aspects. To ensure a productive discussion, the Razumkov Centre prepared the Discussion Paper based on the Expert Meeting of 24 July 2013, which involved representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the National Institute for Strategic Studies, leading non-governmental think-tanks (NOMOS Centre, the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, the Centre for International Studies, Uniworld International Foundation), along with the results of an expert survey and public opinion survey. This issue of journal contains: Discussion Paper prepared for the International Conference; Expert assessments of Ukraine’s cooperation with international organisations; Public opinion on some aspects of Ukraine’s foreign and security policy; Conference Participants’ presentations; Articles by the military-political experts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, International Organization, National Security, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1140. Labour Migration from the Eastern Partnership Countries: Evolution and Policy Options for Better Outcomes

Author:
Luca Barbone, Matthias Luecke, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This study is part of the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (CASE, Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors’ only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Partnerships, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus