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1041. Entre européanisation et fragmentation, quel modèle de développement pour le territoire ukrainien? (Between Europeanization and fragmentation, what model of development for the Ukrainian territory?)

Author:
Gilles Lepesant
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
One week before the third Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29, 2013, Ukraine suspended the preparation of an association agreement with the European Union, which had been under negotiation since 2007. When the agreement was finally signed in June 2014, President Yanukovych had fled the country under people’s pressure, and the integrity of Ukraine was challenged in the East by separatists and their Russian allies. These events came paradoxically at a time when the country's cohesion seemed stronger than in the 1990s. Far from being divided into two parts, Ukraine consists of the pieces of broken empires that all have good reasons to join in the state, as recent as this one may be. Indeed, its geography, electoral or economic, does not show a split between two blocks, but various lines of division that do not necessarily herald the breaking up of the state. Since the independence, this diversity had never been translated into new institutions: for several reasons, the reshaping of the centralized regime inherited from the Soviet era was deemed untimely by the country’s political forces. Presented as a priority by the members of the Parliament elected in 2014, the reform of territorial government is being implemented while Ukraine’s driving regions are either paralyzed or threatened by war.
Topic:
Nationalism, Sovereignty, War, Territorial Disputes, Europeanization, Memory, Borders, and State
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and European Union

1042. Fragile States Index 2015 – Annual Report

Author:
J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Kendall Lawrence, Felipe Umana, Sebastian Pavlou, and Hannah Blyth
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Reform, Ebola, Democracy, Fragile States, Domestic Politics, Sustainability, Health Crisis, Instability, and Uprising
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, Finland, Eastern Europe, Greece, Libya, Cuba, North Africa, Lebanon, West Africa, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and United States of America

1043. New Energy Strategy of Ukraine Until 2020: Security, Energy Efficiency, Competition

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The proposed “New Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2020: Security, Energy Efficiency, Competition” (hereinafter referred to as NES 2020) is a comprehensive document for reforming the energy complex of Ukraine for the period until 2020. At the same time, NES 2020 defines, above all, the goals and algorithms for energy sector development, and thus will also remain relevant for creating further long-term strategies and sectoral programmes. Target figures mentioned in the document only demonstrate the general trajectory of energy resources demand and offer development. These figures are to have a more expanded and detailed presentation in the developed action plan of the CMU for implementation of NES 2020. Usually, a strategy, being a document that is the result of target-based programme planning and forecasting in a certain sphere of activity, covers a longer period of time – 10-20 years. However, serious challenges currently faced by Ukraine as a state, given the fact of external aggression and the burden of unresolved issues accumulated during the period of independence with reforming of the national energy complex, require a document with such status for a shorter period of time. The NES 2020 stipulates that by the end of its implementation term the restructuring of the energy complex of Ukraine will be complete, including its transition to modern market models of operation, and that the main safety and energy efficiency targets will be achieved. After 2020, Ukrainian energy sector will move on to a new level of its development – complete integration with the EU energy sector and innovative rebuilding. Thus, implementation of tasks in the energy sector after 2020, will require rather different approaches than those defined by NES 2020, which means – development of a new strategic document. During the development of NES 2020, proposals were considered regarding the content of the suggested document from such respected international organisations, as the International Energy Agency, Energy Community Secretariat, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, World Bank, Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, etc. At the final stage of public consultations regarding NES 2020 draft, an expert discussion was organised, which involved representatives of leading scientific research institutions, companies working in the field, international organisations and NGOs, domestic and foreign experts, media, and based on results of which, the final draft of NES 2020 was created. This document was developed by the Razumkov Centre and other leading nongovernmental, public organisations and scientific research institutions of Ukraine, with support of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on Fuel and Energy Complex, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Safety. Therefore, the draft of NES 2020 can be rightfully viewed as a result of joint effort of Ukraine’s expert community and reputable international institutions.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, Strategic Competition, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1044. Law Enforcement System in Ukraine: Status, Problems, Prospects for Reform

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The year 2013 saw the beginning of a unique period in the history of an independent Ukraine. The victory of the Euromaidan, which seemed to be a successful completion of the Revolution of Dignity, in reality was merely the first step on the path of revolutionary transformation of all aspects in the life of Ukrainian society and state. Security issues are of high priority in the ambitious plans of reforms initiated by the Ukrainian government: “The security vector is our certainty about our tomorrow, being peaceful and happy. It is our certainty of justice and inevitable punishment for each crime. Our certainty that no person is unfairly convicted. The certainty of guaranteed security of investments and property”.1 Guaranteeing the required level of domestic security, primarily the security of a person and a citizen, largely depends on the capability of the law enforcement agencies to perform the functions entrusted to them by national law, and their ability to serve the society and not the government or their own selfish interests. In the system of functions delegated by the state to law enforcement agencies, the policing function has a special role, since the police, in addition to being the most numerous structure, is on the “frontier”, where a citizen may receive protection from, or be persecuted by, the state. For this reason, police reform is receiving considerable attention from the Ukrainian government, society and Ukraine’s international partners. The overwhelming majority of police officers also acknowledge the need for radical change, being dissatisfied with working conditions, level of social security and the negative view of their work on the part of society. Analysis of the current reform efforts leads to the conclusion that, despite the presence of many extraordinary aspects and significant positive differences, they still have many features typical of the prior unsuccessful reform attempts. The most important reasons impeding the implementation of the generally positive declarations and concept documents include the lack of political will as well as the pursuit of political and private ends that have nothing in common with the national interests or international standards. Taking into account our own errors is as important for success as studying the diverse international experience. The lack of coordination of reforms from a single centre, despite the formal presence of the respective structure, inefficient use of the tightly limited resources and attempts to substitute minor changes (restructuring, personnel rotations, name changes, etc.) for a true transformation – all of this has been seen on multiple occasions before. The lack of political will is most often mentioned by experts and community activists looking for answers to the questions why the reforms are advancing so slowly or why the results claimed by the politicians remain hardly noticeable for civilians. Society and the entities being reformed may become more optimistic about the success of the reforms if the Government sincerely demonstrates its interest in developing a European model of the police service, and, most importantly, proves it by real actions. The active participation by community activists, non-governmental organisations, and international partners in the reform processes are important but merely auxiliary factors. The duration and resources of a powerful international support are limited and directly depend on the demonstration of practical results. The analytical report is intended to make an intellectual contribution to the joint effort of developing the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies, whose performance is evaluated not by statistics or the opinion of the government, but by the satisfaction of society with the quality of the respective services, the citizens’ feeling of safety and justice and their level of trust in and respect for those who protect them.
Topic:
Governance, Law Enforcement, Public Opinion, Reform, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1045. Party System of Ukraine Before and After Maidan: Changes, Trends, Public Demand

Author:
Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Mass protests of citizens against the сriminal, authoritarian regime of V. Yanukovych, known as the Revolution of Dignity, with its epicentre the Maidan was to be a turning point in the modern history of Ukraine, These events differed significantly in scale and consequences – from the final enforcement by Ukraine of its geopolitical choice, beginning of practical implementation of the course of European integration through reforms in all areas of public life to Russian military aggression, thousands of casualties and the loss of a part of the national economy and sovereign territory. The events of 2013-2014 had a significant impact on the political system in Ukraine. After the fall of V. Yanukovych’s regime and the former president’s fleeing to Russia, the 2004 Constitution of Ukraine was reenacted. All supreme state institutions underwent renewal. The new President and the Verkhovna Rada were legitimised by special elections and a new Cabinet of Ministers was formed. The process began of reforming the constitutional principles of government organisation in relation to its various branches and levels. Ukraine’s party system, which is an important element of the political system in general, also underwent significant changes. The political parties that belonged to the pro-presidential coalition before Maidan (Party of Regions and Communist Party of Ukraine) were removed from power and actually descended from the political arena. A significant reformatting of the political forces representing the new government took place. This part of the political spectrum is represented both by the “old” (“Batkivshchyna”, “Svoboda”) and the “new” parties that entered the political arena and were formed during Maidan or after it (“Samopomich”, Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko, “Right Sector”, “People’s Front”, Petro Poroshenko Bloc). The post-election period was marked by a heightened struggle not only between the new leading forces and the opposition, but also by competition and conflict between the political forces that in the period from November 2013 to February 2014 had acted as a “unified front”. The drastic changes in the party and political spectrum engendered confusion of the public electoral preferences, especially in the part that did not find any equivalent to their established sympathies among the new parties. There are still some free “political niches”, which can be claimed by new party structures. The data of public opinion surveys demonstrate that those political forces, which were enthusiastically received by society during the early parliamentary elections in October 2014, subsequently started losing their voter support. All this indicates that the party system of Ukraine is undergoing a transformation process, a process that apparently will continue at least until the next scheduled parliamentary elections. However, the development of Ukraine as a democratic European state requires an effective and representative political system, which is impossible without effective, institutionalised political parties.
Topic:
Social Movement, Reform, Domestic Politics, Protests, Political Parties, and Euromaidan Revolution
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1046. Prospects of Ukrainian-Russian Relations

Author:
Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has continued since February 2014. To date, the multiple efforts of international diplomacy, unfortunately, have not resulted either in settlement or even in a “freeze” of the situation in eastern Ukraine. The previous Minsk Agreements adopted in September 2014 (Minsk Protocol and Minsk Memorandum) were disrupted and Russian aggression in Donbas continued. On 12 February 2015, the presidents of Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia agreed on a new document, “Package of Measures for Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”, which envisaged conflict settlement by the end of 2015. However, implementation of these measures was postponed to 2016 and, given the course of events, has actually become a process which is difficult to forecast and which is indefinite in time.1 It should be noted that on the one hand, the situation in eastern Ukraine has not undergone significant changes for the better – hostilities are ongoing. There are persistent fundamental differences in the positions of the two sides, Ukraine and Russia, on conflict resolution. (In particular, implementation of the Minsk Agreements in line with the Russian scenario threatens to destabilise the internal situation in Ukraine and destroy its statehood.) On the other hand, the international situation is rapidly changing; we see further escalation of international terrorism (the terrorist attacks in Paris), the “migration crisis” in the EU, Russia’s military intervention in Syria, and the gaining momentum of the acute conflict of Moscow and Ankara. This dulls the perception of events in Donbas on the part of the international community, renders these events a somewhat “background” nature in the West, and urges attempts to “freeze” the situation there at any cost, including at the expense of Ukraine’s own interests. Meanwhile, Russia proceeds with military expansion in Donbas, aimed at the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, and now there is no reason to expect a change for the better in the Kremlin’s policy. Thus, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (which has a regional and global dimension) acquires a long-term nature with recurrent escalation and unpredictable consequences. Russian aggression – the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine – has entailed profound changes in bilateral relations: (а) the legal framework of Kyiv and Moscow relations has been destroyed; (b) institutional mechanisms of state-to-state relations have been destroyed; (c) contacts at the highest level have become impossible, political and diplomatic relations have become confrontational; (d) Ukraine has suffered huge human, economic, and territorial losses; (e) an unprecedented curtailment of economic cooperation has taken place; (f) deep alienation between the peoples of Ukraine and Russia has emerged. The previous official ideology of “strategic partnership”, “fraternal peoples”, and “neighbourliness”, embedded in many joint agreements, has lost its sense.2 A new political-ideological reality has emerged in the relations between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, a new assessment and review of the nature, ideology, and general institutional system of relations with Russia in key areas (politics, security, economy, energy, humanitarian sphere, etc.) is required, given that the main threat to Ukrainian statehood is the current government in place in the Russian Federation. There is a need to design a new conceptual model of coexistence with Putin’s Russia, which would reflect current realities and prospects of bilateral relations and would take into account the position of Western partner countries and international organisations. However, it is important to keep in mind at least two things. First, one should clearly distinguish the current Putin’s regime and the country of Russia as it is and its society. Second, in rebuffing Russian aggression, a strategic goal should be seen – to restore confidence and interest of the societies of both countries in peaceful coexistence and respect the right of each state to determine the state system in the country and its civilisation development vector.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1047. Beyond Ukraine. EU and Russia in Search of a New Relation

Author:
Aldo Ferrari
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Due to the Ukrainian crisis, relations between the EU and Russia hit rock bottom, the lowest point from the end of the Cold War. Indeed, it is crystal clear that today’s dispute is nothing but the latest chapter of a long story of misunderstandings and conflicting strategies on the post -Soviet states of Eastern Europe and South Caucasus. The further deepening of this cleavage would inflict serious damage on all interested parties: the EU, Russia and several post-Soviet states. Why is Ukraine so important both for EU and Russia? What are the real origins of the current crisis that brought to an open confrontation between Russia and the EU? What is the rationale behind Russia’s firm opposition to a further NATO enlargement? What are the viable options to escape the fate of a new ‘Cold War’?
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1048. A successful alternative in the reformation of local self-government system in Ukraine

Author:
Galyna Dimlyevych
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
I rrespective of, whether the Ukraine is presidential or parliamentary republic, whether the wide or narrow coalition is formed, whether parties are united or separated the standard of people’s life will not change essentially. The only and real way out of deep crisis is a fundamental reformation of the system of local self-government in Ukraine. Such a way out was offered by me as the deputy of Svyatoshynsky district in the city of Kyiv council (from 1998 to 2006) in the form of the Declaration about local selfgovernment, which was proclaimed on March 30, 2005 in conditions of the opposition against lawlessness and corruption in local authorities. In particular, I as the local MP took extreme measures in the framework of the law: speeches and protests at each Council meeting, organized pickets, for which authorities have repeatedly threatened and harassed me (there are supporting documents). Later I organized and even was the chairman of the local parliamentary group “Justice”. But after the official support of the group by almost a half of the members of the Council (its requests have been already signed by 25 of the 60 deputies) the authorities was seriously frightened and actively undertook by different ways (the infiltration of stooges, threats, intimidation, bribery, slander and provocation) to dissolve the group up to its illegal ban. And as the result of my hard years of struggle a document was: Declaration about local self-government. By the way, at one time, in 2005, many members of the district councils of Kyiv supported me, but they were afraid to sign a declaration drawn up an prepared by me. So I did not hesitate to have signed and declared it on my own behalf on March 30, 2005.
Topic:
Government, Governance, and Coalition
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

1049. A Roadmap for Ukraine: Delivering on the Promise of the Maidan

Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Ukraine is once again at a potential turning point in its young history. It missed the opportunity at independence and during the Orange Revolution to make a decisive break with an authoritarian past and move decisively toward an open, market-oriented society. Yet Ukrainian civil society remained vibrant and late last year once again spoke out against the country's authoritarian and corrupt leaders. As a result of the protests from an enraged citizenry, then-President Viktor Yanukovych fled the country for Russia.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1050. Vladimir Putin's long—and very dangerous—game

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Vladimir Putin is exploiting the Ukrainian revolution-specifically, by manufacturing "crises" in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and nationalist euphoria and anti-Western paranoia at home-to fashion a more repressive and increasingly unpredictable Russian dictatorship for life. With the Russian economy heading for recession, the Putin regime's popularity largely depends on Russia's foreign policy successes, which Putin hopes to achieve by humiliating, destabilizing, and eventually derailing Ukraine; by cajoling the West into rejecting sanctions against Russia; and by fueling Russian patriotism. The West should, in an effort spearheaded by the United States, aim its sanctions at increasing the costs of the regime's malignant transformation rather than simply attempting to dissuade Moscow from further action in eastern Ukraine.
Topic:
International Law, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Ukraine