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1. Russia’s wartime ideology: Radicalization, rent-seeking and securing the dictator

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Anti-Western propaganda and the indoctrination of citizens, especially young people, have gradually intensified since the early days of Putin’s rule. However, their radicalization during the war is indicative of the regime’s need for manipulative control rather than reflective of broad support for the regime’s worldview. The most significant shift in the Kremlin’s wartime propaganda has been its codification in school education since the summer of 2022. This timing reveals more about the regime’s need to justify the war and its consequences than it does about any consistent long-term strategy. Key actors behind the ideological codification are opportunistically exploiting the current context. Meanwhile, ideological radicals face little opposition, as most citizens show limited interest in their activities. Despite the regime’s indoctrination practices, the indifference of society suggests that the conditions for a strong anti-Western consensus after Putin will be weak. Such a consensus can only emerge if the future regime, like the current one, is able to maintain satisfactory material conditions and a tolerable daily life alongside its ideological views, whatever they may be.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Democracy, Ideology, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2. The End of the Near Abroad

Author:
Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Putin’s war on Ukraine marks the end of the near abroad—the idea that Russia enjoys a special status in much of the post-Soviet space. But while Russia’s neighbors are seeking greater independence, they are not necessarily turning West.
Topic:
Democracy, Post-Soviet Space, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

3. Emerging Contours of a New, Just World

Author:
B. Gryzlov, P. Frolov, and V. Vanke
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
Thirty-two years ago, an event took place that American political scientist Francis Fukuyama claimed marked the “end of history.” It was argued that the disappearance of the Soviet Union from the world political scene and the end of the Soviet socialist project meant that there was no socioeconomic alternative to a liberal capitalist world order – a system that puts the individual above society and private business above national interests and gives overconsumption priority over progress. What did the collapse of the Soviet system, the dissolution of the Warsaw Treaty Organization, and the breakup of the Eastern bloc lead to? In the wake of all this and with political support from their governments, British, German, French, and American companies received unlimited sway over a market representing nearly 420 million people, of whom 290 million represented the total population of former Soviet republics and the other 130 million the population of former Eastern bloc countries. In addition to vast opportunities for the sale of consumer and other goods, Western countries gained access to rich natural resources, including natural gas and oil, and this brought about unprecedented industrial growth in Western Europe.
Topic:
History, Soviet Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Soviet Union, South Ossetia, and Post-Soviet Europe

4. Role theory and Russia’s attempts to integrate the post-Soviet space: from internal to international duties

Author:
Damian Strycharz
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow’s foreign policy towards the post-Soviet space has become an even greater area of concern. In order to better understand Russia’s behaviour in the post-Soviet space, it is worth analysing what led to Moscow’s renewed interest in this area. There are numerous accounts explaining Russia’s policies towards its neighbourhood, but they often focus on material factors or Russian imperial complexes. To address the existing gap and examine changes in Moscow’s attitude towards the region, this paper will use role theory and analyse shifts in Russia’s national role conceptions. It argues that the combination of important external and internal factors led to changes in perception of Russia’s international duties and responsibilities between Putin’s rise to power and his return to the presidency in 2012. Consequently, these changes resulted in different understanding of Russia’s role in the post-Soviet space, which had implications for Russia’s increasingly aggressive actions in the region afterwards.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Integration, Post-Soviet Space, Russia-Ukraine War, and Role Theory
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

5. Environment in Times of War: Climate and Energy Challenges in the Post-Soviet Region

Author:
Aldo Ferrari and Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been devastating both politically and environmentally. On top of the environmental damage directly caused by military operations, the invasion has put an abrupt end to the EU-Russia “green cooperation”, which had previously raised many hopes. At the same time, it has also shifted international attention away from climate and environmental concerns, which are particularly acute in the post-Soviet region. This Report analyses some of the main climate change and environmental issues in the post-Soviet space, providing an initial assessment of the invasion’s impact. The bulk of the latest scholarly and policy production on these matters focuses on Russia — given the country’s geopolitical and energy relevance. However, this analysis finds that environmental disasters such as the desertification of the Aral Sea transcend state borders and require a broader approach both from an analytic and policy standpoint.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, War, European Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

6. Dynamics of Ukraine-Russia Relations

Author:
Roman Popadiuk
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The end of the Soviet Union seemed to augur an era of peace and coopera- tion: The Cold War was over, Europe was whole and free, and Russia—moving toward democracy and a free-market economy—held the promise of becoming a meaningful member of the global community. While much of the interna- tional community’s focus was on Russia, a key factor for realizing the West’s aspirations was dependent on the development of Ukraine and its relationship with Russia.
Topic:
Cold War, Bilateral Relations, Regional Integration, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

7. Not Another Transnistria: How sustainable is separatism in Eastern Ukraine?

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The situation in Eastern Ukraine is often compared with that of Transnistria, the separatist region of Moldova. However, the two cases differ for a number of reasons, all of which will make the “Novorossiya” project much harder for Russia to sustain than Transnistria. First and foremost, unlike Transnistria, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in their current shape will be unable to influence the everyday political and economic functioning of Ukraine. Vis-à-vis the rest of Ukraine, they are much smaller than Transnistria is in relation to Moldova. The main energy pipelines leading to Ukraine do not cross the separatist territories, and with the economic ties getting severed, the main instrumental function of a frozen conflict – namely to constantly influence and destabilize the target country – is likely to be lost. There are also several other factors, including: the lack of ethnic, national, linguistic or cultural background that would provide identity foundations for the Novorossiya project; the reliance of the separatists on the continuous, massive presence of the Russian military; the damage already inflicted on Russia’s international reputation; the effect on Russian domestic politics; the need for considerable financial assistance from Russia to the separatist territories; and the risk of increasing soft security challenges directly affecting Russia. In addition to all this, it cannot be guaranteed that the separatist elites will always be fully obedient to the will of Moscow. The a priori readiness to defend and support the action of the local authorities will limit Moscow’s room for maneouvre. Costly both politically and economically, the Novorossiya project is able to serve the Russian strategic objectives vis-à-vis the rest of Ukraine much less than Transnistria was able to do so vis-à-vis Moldova. Hence, one probable scenario is a further escalation of hostilities to expand the separatist-controlled territory, which may unfold relatively soon. However, in the medium term, the gradual restoration of Ukraine’s constitutional order in the territory should also be considered possible, within the framework of a larger international compromise and provided that reforms progress in Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Separatism, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

8. After the Orange Era: Economic Prospects in Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Boyarchuk, Kateryna Ruskykh, Olga Kravets, and Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
When Victor Yanukovich won Ukraine’s presidential election in February 2010, it marked the official end of the Orange Revolution. Soon after taking office, Yanukovich managed to form a loyal parliamentary coalition in a legally dubious way and, consequently, appointed his ally Mykola Azarov as Prime Minister. Indeed this decision may have made state governance more predictable and even provided for shortterm economic stability, but it may have come at the expense of Ukraine’s democratic freedom and long-term economic prospects.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Institutions, Economic Stability, Post-Soviet Space, and Victor Yanukovich
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe