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61. Post-conflict Reconstruction in Ukraine: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Silvia Samorè
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
During her first visit to Kyiv on 21 February 2023, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reassured President Volodymyr Zelensky concerning the Italian commitment to the Ukrainian resistance and defence against the Russian invasion. To most people’s surprise, she stated that “we [Prime Minister Meloni and President Zelensky] have spoken a lot today about reconstruction, not only for when the conflict ends, but also now”.[1] As a concrete follow-up on this commitment, on 26 April a bilateral conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction was held in Rome.[2] Indeed, the word “reconstruction” in reference to Ukraine has been used since the spring of 2022 at the EU level. This is a great achievement for the post-conflict researchers’ community and research centres that have restlessly highlighted the importance of dealing with conflict and post-conflict as a complex spectrum, where recovery considerations need to be taken into account from the early stages. When designing international efforts for physical reconstruction and investment, emerging challenges to good governance and rule of law, such as corruption, must be carefully considered and managed. Furthermore, it is paramount to discuss also non-physical aspects of reconstruction, encompassing all the threats to human security, such as the presence of small arms and light weapons (SALW), that could foster instability in the country after the end of the war.
Topic:
Reconstruction, European Union, Post-Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Economic Aid
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

62. Moldova, land of the European Union's partnership mission

Author:
Florent Parmentier
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Sharing 939 kilometres of borders with Ukraine, Moldova is closest to the epicentre of the war that began on 24 February 2022. From the very first weeks onwards, the Moldovan authorities had to build reception facilities for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the fighting in the south and east of the country. In diplomatic and strategic terms, this war has also played a role in accelerating events, since in June 2022 Moldova was, against all expectations, recognised as candidate country to the European Union. The credit for this European rapprochement goes largely to the leadership team headed by President Maia Sandu. He later, with her party (Party of Action and Solidarity, PAS), has led the nation's dynamic forces along this demanding path of transformation, despite the many difficulties that the country faces. The war has already changed Moldova’s geopolitical situation, which has to contend with a great number of hybrid threats from Russia. In other words, beyond the success of the European Political Community Summit, organised at Castelul Mimi on 1 June last, and the many political signals received on this occasion, Moldova still needs assistance on the road to European transformation. This is why the Europeans decided to launch a partnership mission on 31 May last in Chisinau together with the High Representative Josep Borrell, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Nicu Popescu and the then Home Affairs Minister, Ana Revenco.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, Hybrid Threats, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

63. Envisioning a Long-Term Security Arrangement for Ukraine

Author:
Eric Ciaramella
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The moment has arrived for Western leaders to offer a practical vision for Ukraine’s long-term security. This paper lays out a detailed proposal for a sustainable multilateral security arrangement in which Ukraine has a strong military that is backed by legally codified pledges of support—training, equipping, and defense industrial cooperation—from the United States and Europe. The model outlined in this paper draws on official Ukrainian government proposals and lessons from the United States’ security relationships with close partners that are not treaty allies, notably Israel. It prioritizes a strategy of deterrence by denial: by fielding a robust, modernized, and well-trained military, Ukraine can raise the cost of future aggression to such a point that Russia would lose confidence in its ability to achieve its objectives there through force.1 Independent of battlefield developments, Ukraine and its partners must negotiate a long-term security arrangement now. Reaching a consensus sooner rather than later on a framework makes more sense than putting off controversial decisions until large-scale hostilities end. A security arrangement has the potential to undermine President Vladimir Putin’s conviction that Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West. It can also assure Ukraine that it will be able to defend its sovereignty even if it does not liberate its entire territory this year. Many of the elements contained in this proposal can be implemented during wartime—indeed, some of them are already in place—and strengthened after the war. The proposed security model is not necessarily an alternative to NATO membership, which enjoys strong support from Ukraine’s leaders and public. The allies have promised the country an eventual place in NATO, but they have made clear that this will not be on the agenda while the war is ongoing. Even once the war ends, they are unlikely to move swiftly to admit Ukraine. Therefore, the proposal here seeks to enhance the country’s ability to defend itself as it remains outside of NATO for the foreseeable future. At the same time, it emphasizes the critical role Ukraine’s EU accession will play in its long-term security. The United States must lead the conversation on a future security arrangement. Not only does its unparalleled capacity for security assistance and multinational coordination make it vital to the success of the arrangement, but a clear long-term U.S. pledge to Ukraine would also prompt Europe to increase its commitments, thereby ensuring proper burden-sharing. The proposed arrangement would be flexible enough to encompass commitments from the EU as a collective, from individual member states, and from other countries. To make the U.S. commitment to Ukraine credible and durable, the Biden administration must work with Congress to secure broad bipartisan support. This study identifies five elements that are critical to a future security arrangement: Strong political and legal codification that ensures the arrangement will endure regardless of electoral cycles and leadership changes in the United States and Europe A predictable, multiyear pipeline for military supplies that enables Ukraine to plan and sustain a future force structure capable of deterring Russian aggression Support for Ukraine’s defense industry, as well as targeted defense industrial investments in the United States and Europe to prepare for a long war and an extended period of Ukrainian military reconstitution Mechanisms for political consultations, information sharing, and coordination to ensure that Ukraine’s military needs are met in a timely fashion Clear linkage to Ukraine’s EU accession process and postwar reconstruction Much of the public debate to date has focused on Ukraine’s request for security “guarantees” in response to the failure of the previous “assurances” encapsulated in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. To avoid confusion, and in light of the historical baggage these terms carry, this paper uses “arrangement” or “commitment” to refer to the future legal and political framework in question.2
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

64. Active labour market policies response to Ukrainian citizens entering the European Union’s labour market

Author:
Oleksandra Struk
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article contains a thorough analysis of the European active labour market policies in the face of the influx of Ukrainians following the outbreak of the Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine. An overview of the temporary protection regulations for Ukrainians adopted by the EU states made it possible to determine the conditions of legal residence and labour market access. Statistical data and surveys conducted by international institutions became the basis for identification the Ukrainian refugee’s profile on the EU labour market. Thus, the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens staying in EU states are women with higher-than-average educational level; good or high proficiency in English; who used to work before the war with a non-negligible share in the health and education sectors; and who often work below their qualification. In addition, an analytical comparison was undertaken to highlight the image of migrants who came to Poland before February 24, 2022 and that of war refugees who have arrived following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Acceptance of Ukrainians by Poles, remarkable similarities between countries in terms of culture, favourable access to the labour market and healthcare are of the utmost significance for both economic migrants and war refugees.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Labor Market, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

65. Issues of national minorities in the policy of the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Halyna Lutsyshyn and Oleksandr Sokolovsky
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The peculiarities of implementing the policy of the EU’s Eastern Partnership Initiative in regards to protecting the rights of national minorities have been studied. The issue of national minorities in the EU is considered from the perspectives of security, democracy, and regional integration. Despite contemporary criticism of the EU’s Eastern Partnership Initiative, many initiatives aimed at protecting the rights of national minorities in the region have been implemented, thereby fostering intergovernmental cooperation. It is evident that Ukraine and Moldova are the most proactive in protecting the rights of national minorities amongst the Eastern Partnership countries. These countries have been granted the status of candidate for EU accession. Despite the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine actively works on improving legislation in the field of ethno-policy. Particular emphasis is placed on analysis of the institutional structure of national minorities, communication pathways, and non-discriminatory policies in Eastern Partnership countries. Member states of the Eastern Partnership actively utilize “soft power” techniques through a network of minority organizations. It has been suggested that European integration of Ukraine and Moldova has generated considerable opportunities for the development of national minorities. Loosening of state borders has enabled national minorities to connect more deeply with their ethnic homelands, thereby transforming them into engaged participants of transborder cooperation and significant figures of regional policy. The Eastern Partnership furnishes a platform for minorities to assert themselves in decisions which pertain to their lives, execute grant initiatives, and take part in regional associations of minorities. Nevertheless, certain risks are highlighted, such as particular nations exploiting EU enlargement to tackle minority matters or manipulate minority rights. The EU has analyzed programs supporting national minorities, especially those implemented in the Eastern Partnership countries. While Eastern Partnership countries have developed their policies regarding national minorities, there are common problems faced by minorities in the region. Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are involved in conflicts, being former Soviet Union countries, and face numerous challenges concerning the functioning of the Russian minority, which is numerically significant in this region. It is stated that the EU cooperates with the Eastern Partnership countries on matters regarding national minorities, and it is crucial to develop innovative models for managing ethnic diversity, promoting the involvement of national minorities in making socio-political decisions and integrating them into society.
Topic:
Minorities, European Union, Regional Politics, and Eastern Partnership
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus

66. Mechanisms for the Protection of Ukrainian Refugees in the EU Member States

Author:
Olha Ivasechko, Yaryna Turchyn, and Teresa Astramowicz-Leyk
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article considers the issue of the migration crisis of Ukrainian refugees to EU member states caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. An elucidation was made as to the quantity of Ukrainian refugees taken in by European states since the Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine commenced. An analysis of forms of protection for individuals in the European Union is conducted, including refugee status and temporary protection. The legislation of refugee status in the EU is represented through the prism of the analysis of the Council Directive 2001/55/EC on temporary protection. The key difference between temporary protection and refugee status is defined. The key problems faced by European countries are highlighted; concurrently, the obstacles experienced by Ukrainian refugees are presented, namely, obtaining housing and employment. Special attention was paid to the issue of “fatigue” and exhaustion of social systems and ordinary citizens in EU countries. The authors present the results of the study on the mechanisms of providing protection and asylum to Ukrainian refugees in the EU. Furthermore, the 10-point strategy suggested by the European Commission to the European Council and the Justice and Home Affairs Council in order to support EU countries in their endeavor of admitting Ukrainian refugees has been duly given attention. The core research objectives revolve around the effectiveness of protection mechanisms for Ukrainian refugees in the EU, and any consequences said system may bring about for both the EU and Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Protection, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

67. The future of the transatlantic partnership: US perceptions and debates

Author:
Sophia Winograd, Valentina Gruarin, Cengiz Günay, and Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, altered Europe’s security architecture and long-term strategic planning. Many in Europe have shared with the Biden administration that the aggression is not only an existential threat to Ukraine but also to the liberal world order and its values. The war has revived transatlantic coordination and increased the popularity of NATO on both sides of the Atlantic. However, there are critical voices which have questioned the transatlantic commitment and its longevity. This paper examines whether and how the transatlantic partnership has been revitalized and whether it is long lasting. It does so by focusing on U.S. debates, differing opinions, and varying positions on the war and cooperation with NATO and the EU.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Partnerships, Transatlantic Relations, Debates, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

68. Ukraine’s State-Civil Partnership to Reform the Security Sector

Author:
Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld and Bob Deen
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Reforming Ukraine’s large security sector and overcoming its Soviet-era legacies has been a major challenge since independence. Ukrainian civil society has been vociferously demanding a transition towards a transparent and well-governed security sector that upholds the interests of the population rather than keeping it under control. This is also a priority for the Ukrainian Government and its international partners, as a prerequisite for further integration with the European Union and NATO. This report therefore analyses the changing role of Ukrainian civil society by investigating seven examples of key reforms of the security sector and puts forward recommendations for Ukraine’s international partners regarding their cooperation with Ukrainian civil society organisations (CSOs).
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

69. From Buffer to Frontier: Ukraine and the EU

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In June 2022, the European Union granted candidate status to Ukraine. A strong political statement, which was welcomed as such in Kyiv. But for a country at war, symbols do not suffice. Accepting a neighbour that is under invasion as a candidate for membership must mean accepting more responsibility for that neighbour’s survival. Ukraine was a buffer state; it has become a frontier state. The EU should finally come up with an overall plan to provide military support to Ukraine over the long term, gradually taking over the main effort from the United States. After one year of war, the time for piecemeal decisions (a dozen tanks now, another dozen in a month) is long past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

70. Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
In the first 100 days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, European public opinion helped to solidify Europe’s political response. But a new poll reveals that diverging public preferences could weaken this unity. ECFR’s research shows that, while Europeans feel great solidarity with Ukraine and support sanctions against Russia, they are split about the long-term goals. They divide between a “Peace” camp (35 per cent of people) that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “Justice” camp that believes the more pressing goal is to punish Russia (22 per cent of people). In all countries, apart from Poland, the “Peace” camp is larger than the “Justice” camp. European citizens worry about the cost of economic sanctions and the threat of nuclear escalation. Unless something dramatically changes, they will oppose a long and protracted war. Only in Poland, Germany, Sweden, and Finland is there substantial public support for boosting military spending. Governments will need to find a new language to bridge the gap between these emerging camps, in order to strengthen European unity and avoid polarisation between and within countries. The key will be to present arms deliveries and sanctions as part of a defensive war.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Peace, Justice, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and Germany