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171. Beyond Ukraine. EU and Russia in Search of a New Relation

Author:
Aldo Ferrari
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Due to the Ukrainian crisis, relations between the EU and Russia hit rock bottom, the lowest point from the end of the Cold War. Indeed, it is crystal clear that today’s dispute is nothing but the latest chapter of a long story of misunderstandings and conflicting strategies on the post -Soviet states of Eastern Europe and South Caucasus. The further deepening of this cleavage would inflict serious damage on all interested parties: the EU, Russia and several post-Soviet states. Why is Ukraine so important both for EU and Russia? What are the real origins of the current crisis that brought to an open confrontation between Russia and the EU? What is the rationale behind Russia’s firm opposition to a further NATO enlargement? What are the viable options to escape the fate of a new ‘Cold War’?
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

172. Choosing our Geography: 12 Points to Restore Meaning to the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Elzbieta Kaca, Roderick Parkes, and Anita Emőke Sobják
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU is inevitably a geopolitical player, but it seeks to avoid fulfilling this role by all means. This has resulted in increased instability in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region. In order to bring healthy political choices to its troubled eastern neighbourhood, the EU should follow a 12-point plan focusing on a more nuanced policy towards Russia, stronger regional ties between Eastern partners, tailored EU conditionalities and an integration approach better suited to EaP countries, as well as improving EU political capacities in the region.
Topic:
Self Determination, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

173. Russia and East Asia in the Context of the Ukrainian Crisis: "No" to Sanctions, "yes" to a New World Order

Author:
V. Petrovsky
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The system of international relations and the world order are being “tested by Ukraine,” the situation in which Russia’s relations with East Asia are not an exception but a confirmation of the process and an illustration of it. The U.S. Administration resolved to isolate Russia from the rest of the world urged the EU, the rest of the continent and also the East Asian and APR countries to introduce anti-Russian sanctions. In July 2014, at the height of the scandal around the Malaysian “Boeing” shot down over Eastern Ukraine, Peter Harrell, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counter Threat Finance and Sanctions, travelled far and wide across the region to persuade top officials and leaders of the business communities to side with the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, East Asia, and United States of America

174. The Eastern Partnership: Challenges and Opportunities for European Integration

Author:
Alexander Verschoor-Kirss and Anna Bulakh
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Vilnius Summit of the Eastern Partnership (abbreviated EaP), held in November 2013, reiterated the stated goal of the previous summit in Warsaw of “building a common area of shared democracy, prosperity, stability and increased interactions and exchanges.” The Vilnius Summit of the Eastern Partnership (abbreviated EaP), held in November 2013, reiterated the stated goal of the previous summit in Warsaw of “building a common area of shared democracy, prosperity, stability and increased interactions and exchanges.” Both the European Union and its partners came to an important conclusion: that the peaceful resolution of conflicts through building trust and good neighborly relations is essential to economic development, social development, and cooperation in the region. Before the EU and EaP countries can reach this laudable goal, however, this partnership needs to address the shared security threat revealed by the current crisis in Ukraine: Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, European Union, Partnerships, Democracy, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

175. Erasmus+ Programme With Eyes of Ukrainian Students

Author:
Svitlana Batsyukova
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Institution:
Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Abstract:
This article looks at the relevance, comprehensiveness and integrity of the Erasmus+ programme in Ukraine thorugh the lenses of Ukrainian students' eyes. It takes account of recently signed political provisions of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and demonstrates support outlined in the Agreement toward goals of the Erasmus+ programme. The core component of the article presents analysis of students' questionnaires. The questionnaires were composed of questions aimed at supporting or countering different arguments related to the introduction of the Erasmus+ programme in Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Higher Education, and Survey
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

176. Not Another Transnistria: How sustainable is separatism in Eastern Ukraine?

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The situation in Eastern Ukraine is often compared with that of Transnistria, the separatist region of Moldova. However, the two cases differ for a number of reasons, all of which will make the “Novorossiya” project much harder for Russia to sustain than Transnistria. First and foremost, unlike Transnistria, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in their current shape will be unable to influence the everyday political and economic functioning of Ukraine. Vis-à-vis the rest of Ukraine, they are much smaller than Transnistria is in relation to Moldova. The main energy pipelines leading to Ukraine do not cross the separatist territories, and with the economic ties getting severed, the main instrumental function of a frozen conflict – namely to constantly influence and destabilize the target country – is likely to be lost. There are also several other factors, including: the lack of ethnic, national, linguistic or cultural background that would provide identity foundations for the Novorossiya project; the reliance of the separatists on the continuous, massive presence of the Russian military; the damage already inflicted on Russia’s international reputation; the effect on Russian domestic politics; the need for considerable financial assistance from Russia to the separatist territories; and the risk of increasing soft security challenges directly affecting Russia. In addition to all this, it cannot be guaranteed that the separatist elites will always be fully obedient to the will of Moscow. The a priori readiness to defend and support the action of the local authorities will limit Moscow’s room for maneouvre. Costly both politically and economically, the Novorossiya project is able to serve the Russian strategic objectives vis-à-vis the rest of Ukraine much less than Transnistria was able to do so vis-à-vis Moldova. Hence, one probable scenario is a further escalation of hostilities to expand the separatist-controlled territory, which may unfold relatively soon. However, in the medium term, the gradual restoration of Ukraine’s constitutional order in the territory should also be considered possible, within the framework of a larger international compromise and provided that reforms progress in Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Separatism, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

177. Narrow Focus, Broad Vision: A Strategic View of the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Emmet Tuohy and Anna Bulakh
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) initiative was launched with high hopes of spreading some of the fruits of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements to the countries on Europe’s eastern periphery. The main objectives of the program—targeted at six states, three in Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)—have been to support these countries in terms of economic and political reform, socio-economic development, and other fields, with the long-term objective of promoting deeper cooperation with the EU. In 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) initiative was launched with high hopes of spreading some of the fruits of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements to the countries on Europe’s eastern periphery. The main objectives of the program—targeted at six states, three in Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)—have been to support these countries in terms of economic and political reform, socio-economic development, and other fields, with the long-term objective of promoting deeper cooperation with the EU. Unfortunately, in the last four years these high expectations have simply not been met. While there have been elements of success, the record of the EP has also demonstrated the limits of the EU’s foreign policy influence […] Accordingly, the upcoming Vilnius summit—marking the fourth anniversary of the establishment of the EP—will be an opportunity for the EU to take stock and reevaluate not only its perception of the partnership states, but also its broader foreign policy objectives and the instruments through which it seeks to accomplish them. It has been argued that the key reason for supporting the Eastern Partnership is because it enables the EU to spread its values. Yet, this is precisely the thing that the European Union cannot (and should not) be doing at this point in time. […] Yet, even while the EU may not have the capacity to create a wide space for the European values of consensus and liberal democracy stretching across the Eurasian landmass from Portugal to the Pacific, it can and does have the ability to deepen cooperation with its Eastern partners on areas that support its interest. In this paper, we concentrate on the most important such dimension: energy security.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

178. Ukraine's European Integration: Internal Factors and External Influences

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, making an ultimate choice over its integration path is a sensitive and highly pressing issue for Ukraine. In November 2013, the 3rd summit of the Eastern Partnership in Vilnius is to see the signing of the Association Agreement, which aims for political association and economic integration, including a deep and comprehensive free trade area. This is a qualitatively new level of cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels based on strategic perspective. In fact, the Agreement will mark the start of implementing the far-reaching reforms in different sectors of domestic life in Ukraine designed to draw the country closer to meeting the standards of a state-candidate for accession to the EU. Apparently, the success of the Agreement remains conditional on joint efforts on behalf of the authorities, opposition, civil institutions, and Ukrainian society in general. One should keep in mind that the signing of the Agreement will give a start to the long process of its ratification by national parliaments of the EU countries. However, there exists a real opportunity to ensure practical implementation of some items of the document in the near future, which will give an impetus to strengthening contacts between Kyiv and Brussels and promote internal transformations in Ukraine. If the document is not signed or implemented too slowly and inconsistently, as was the case with prior arrangements with the EU, Ukraine will lose its historic opportunity. Meanwhile, the Customs Union countries (first of all, Russia) step up efforts to have Ukraine join that alliance, and later – the Eurasian Economic Union. That said, the Customs Union leaders see the Memorandum of Deeper Integration between Ukraine and the Eurasian Economic Commission signed on 31 May 2013, as the first step on the road to Ukraine’s Eurasian integration. The two processes – preparations for signing of the Association Agreement with the EU on the one hand, and new attempts of Russia to involve Ukraine in the Eurasian integration on the other – happen to coincide in time. At that, representatives of both the EU and the Customs Union speak of a need for a clear choice – Ukraine has to either sign the Agreement of Association with the EU, or join the Customs Union. Integration projects of Brussels and Moscow in the post-Soviet space differ in nature, substance and goals. Russia, while trying to create a regional structure counterbalancing the EU on the European continent, uses “energy incentives” to seduce Ukraine. At that, no attention has been paid to ensuring democratic nature of the country’s development. For Brussels, proper democracy, civil society, rule of law, independent judicial system and respect for human rights and freedoms have always played a decisive role in bringing Ukraine closer to European integration. Choosing between two integration lines means choosing between different basic and fundamental values, between two different models of Ukraine’s further development. Ukraine either joins the EU uniting European countries on the basis of European norms, rules and standards, or becomes a member of a union of post-Soviet states with transitional economies and numerous problems with democracy. Ukraine’s European choice is strongly influenced by a number of internal and external factors. The internal factors hindering Ukraine’s movement towards the EU include the practice of selective justice, weak electoral legislation, lack of real anti-corruption efforts, and slow pace of reforms envisaged by the Association Agenda. Solving these problems has been prioritised by the EU. The same was indicated in the conclusions of the EU Council of Ministers (10 December 2012) and the so-called “Füle list”, released later. The external factors include strong geopolitical influence exerted on Ukraine by both the EU and Russia. Today, this influence is growing with Moscow and Brussels showing strong willingness to see Ukraine join their integration projects. The analysis of the situation cited in this report shows that the European way of development best of all goes in line with national interests of Ukraine. It is also evident that Ukraine’s European choice should not be an alternative to the development of mutually advantageous, equal and transparent relations in different sectors with countries of the Customs Union, first of all – Russia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Energy Policy, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

179. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2012 (Volume 2 : Eurasie)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Anne De Tinguy, Jacques Sapir, Julien Vercueil, Hélène Clément-Pitiot, Matthieu Combe, Vitaly Denysyuk, and Raphaël Jozan
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia Dashboard, 2012.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Eastern Europe, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Central Europe, and Belarus

180. Eu-Ukraine-Russia Relations: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
T oday, relations between Kyiv, Brussels and Moscow are rather complex and contradictory. High degree of uncertainty, the credibility gap and conflict of interests are its main features. Contacts between the parties are burdened with ideological opposition, “frozen” conflicts, and competing integration projects in the post-Soviet area. The relations between the EU, Russia and Ukraine in political, economic, energy, security and humanitarian spheres are rather problematic. This situation creates additional risks for the European security, does not correspond to the parties’ interests and requires some joint measures and mutually accepted solutions to the issues on the agenda.
Topic:
International Relations, National Security, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine