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41. Note on the Present Situation in Ukraine and in Israel and Gaza

Author:
Paolo Cotta-Ramusino
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
In this dramatic period, severe conflicts are endangering global security. It is important to reduce heavily these conflicts and restore a path for peace and security. It will not be an easy task, but it is important that Pugwash make its contribution to the goal of peace in whatever way possible. In any case the most important decision to be made is an immediate ceasefire followed by suitable negotiations. Let us discuss briefly the two most relevant and dangerous current conflicts: the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza and Israel. The number of people killed and wounded, both civilian and military, is growing daily, and the numbers mentioned below are just provisional data.
Topic:
Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

42. Resolve to Protect: The War in Ukraine and Challenges to Protecting Civilians in Evolving Warfare Dynamics

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What can the states and governments do to protect civilians in conflict and prevent further civilian losses in war in Ukraine? Read about it in the new analysis written by a member of the BCSP International Advisory Committee, Marta Martinelli. The war in Ukraine marks a turning point in the history of Europe and of the relations between the West and Russia, as well as more broadly, the configuration of alliances that the conflict contributes to shaping as it protracts and evolves. The situation in Ukraine is a powerful indication of a world we used to take for granted. The old framework provided a more or less reliable ecosystem designed to provide predictability and a level of stability acceptable to the world’s large powers. It included the use of diplomacy to address international confrontations, reliance on international law to regulate relations amongst states including in the conduct of hostilities, and a general ‘agreement’ that provoking a direct confrontation between Russia and the West belonged to the realm of the irrational and unacceptable. That predictability was shattered in February 2022. If there is one element that emerges starkly from the conduct of the war in Ukraine, it is the insignificance of diplomacy to restore peace and the total disregard for International Humanitarian Law and civilians caught in the war. Whilst not new to contemporary conflicts (as seen in Darfur, the Central African Republic, Yemen, and Syria, amongst others) the scale and speed of the harm inflicted to civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is unprecedented, facilitated also by the use of new technologies.
Topic:
Civilians, Armed Conflict, Protection, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

43. Six Months after the Russian Invasion, the West Needs Better Clock Management

Author:
Peter Rough, Luke Coffey, and Rebeccah L. Heinrichs
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Ukraine’s status as a borderland between Europe and Russia has often confined it to the periphery of Western strategic thought. For many, Ukraine constitutes the southeastern edge of the European continent, but not its heartland. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, Ukraine sits at the center of his strategic vision for Eurasia. Far from a backwater, the country is the key to his imperial aims—a prize for which he has risked his army and bet his rule. In Putin’s mind, if Russia were to control Ukraine, Moscow would dominate the Black Sea—and so would be in a stronger position in every connected region, from Eastern Europe to the South Caucasus and from the Balkans to the Caspian Basin. Russia would also complete its breakout into the Eastern Mediterranean, long a priority of Moscow, by securing the connection between its warm water ports in the Black Sea to its new bases on the Syrian coast.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

44. Mass Atrocities in Ukraine: Assessing Risks of Significant Escalation

Author:
Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On October 11, 2022, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum convened a private roundtable to discuss potential scenarios of mass atrocity escalation in Ukraine. The discussion featured preliminary remarks by three Ukraine experts, followed by a facilitated discussion. The discussion aimed to encourage more systematic thinking about how the current pattern of mass atrocities in Ukraine could escalate, in terms of severity, lethality, and/or systematicity to inform policy makers’ consideration of preventive options. The 2022 United States Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities states, “In cases of ongoing atrocities, the [Atrocity Prevention] Task Force supports regional policy processes in developing and monitoring targeted response options and adjusting course as needed.” Assessing potential pathways to escalation is one way to help identify targeted response options that could mitigate atrocity risks. Even in a case like Ukraine, where the core US strategy is to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, additional options may be available to help protect vulnerable populations or head-off future escalation. At the time of the convening, little analysis of this type appeared to exist, despite the substantial attention to documenting atrocity crimes, monitoring day-to-day developments in the war, and anticipating potential future scenarios of the conflict in general. Therefore, the discussion focused on the following prompts: What are the major potential triggers or drivers of potential significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine over the next year or so? What strategies might policy makers use to anticipate, prevent, or respond to the potential escalation of atrocities? What observable trends or events would indicate increasing likelihood of a significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key discussion points and questions without attribution.
Topic:
Atrocities, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

45. Responsible Statecraft Correlates with UN Vote on Russian Invasion of Ukraine: An Application of the 2021 Peddling Peril Index

Author:
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
On March 2, 2022, the UN General Assembly convened in New York and voted 141 (in favor), 5 (against), and 35 (abstained), on the UNGA Resolution ES-11/1, condemning and demanding an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This invasion is a paramount shift in the status quo of peaceful relations on the European continent and will have repercussions throughout the world. The Institute decided to assess the vote in terms related to international norms of responsible strategic trade and associated behavior, using the results and findings in the 2021/2022 Peddling Peril Index (PPI), which ranks national strategic trade control systems. We could have selected other international normative comparisons, but we decided to use the PPI since national strategic trade controls are often correlated with more responsible state actions, and the PPI also measures adherence to a large number of international treaties and conventions. A central finding is that the vote is positively correlated with states' demonstrated commitment and implementation of international arms control, trade control, and financial practices. Countries that voted against the resolution or abstained from voting performed worse, on average, in the Peddling Peril Index.
Topic:
United Nations, Norms, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

46. The Parallels of Ukraine and Syria

Author:
Charles Lister and Iulia-sabina Joja
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Iulia-Sabina Joja and Charles Lister discuss the parallels between the wars in Ukraine and Syria, the similarities of Russia’s tactics in both conflicts, and what the recent history in Syria may signal for Ukraine in the months ahead.
Topic:
History, Syrian War, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

47. The Eastern Partnership under the test of war in Ukraine

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On the eve of the fifth enlargement of the European Union in 2003, the neighbourhood policy was launched to “prevent further lines of division in Europe and to promote stability and prosperity” and to create, according to a now famous concept, a “circle of friends”. The Eastern Partnership, which emerged on 7 May 2009, is now being undermined by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

48. World food crisis: between withdrawal and responsibility, Europe must choose

Author:
Emmanuelle Ducros
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The profound destructuring of world food markets as a result of Russia's war on Ukraine is forcing all of the world's agricultural powers to question their place on the world stage of satiety - or hunger. This is primarily the case in Europe.
Topic:
Food, Hunger, Armed Conflict, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

49. On a Collision Course: Russia’s Dangerous Game in Ukraine

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
While Russia demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership, Western countries are warning it of dire consequences if it launches a war on Ukraine. The balance of power between the two parties, Russia and the West, may remain on the verge of collapse, leaving Ukraine unstable and Ukrainian leadership unable to control the entire country.
Topic:
NATO, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

50. War in Ukraine enters its second month: serious implications and far-reaching changes

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in its second month witnessed several developments, including the failure of the Russian forces to achieve a quick and decisive military victory and the Russian leadership's reduction of its primary objectives.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe