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21. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Current Situation, Consequences, Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
On 27 January 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Resolution “On the Appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the United Nations, European Parliament, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, GUAM Parliamentary Assembly and national parliaments of the countries of the world on the recognition of the Russian Federation as an aggressor state”. It is stated in the document that “Ukraine remains the target of military aggression by the Russian Federation, which the latter carries out, among other things, by supporting, and providing supplies for large-scale terrorist attacks. … taking into account the provisions of the UN Charter and UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 ‘Definition of Aggression’ dated 14 December 1974, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognises the Russian Federation as an Aggressor State…”.1 This Appeal defines the current situation and character of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reason and source for which is Russia’s expansionist policy in the post-Soviet area, which the Russian Federation, represented by its current leadership, considers its “zone of privileged interests”. This forms the basis for Russia’s hard pressure on Ukraine to integrate into Eurasian alliances under the auspices of the Russian Federation (RF), and blocking Kyiv’s course towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Such policy, as implemented by Russia since the beginning of 2000, did not involve establishing real partner relations between Moscow and Kyiv on the basis of parity and equality, – its goal was to turn Ukraine into a controlled state, which would operate in the framework of Russia’s policy. Russia’s geopolitical plans regarding Ukraine were ruined in February 2014. In return, Putin’s regime resorted to outright aggression against Ukraine – in March 2014 Crimea was annexed, later began the military expansion in Eastern Ukraine. This “undeclared” or “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has now lasted for almost a year; during this war Ukraine has suffered large-scale human, territorial and economic losses. A critical outcome of this war is mutual estrangement of both countries’ societies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a “local”, “peripheral” event, – it has regional and global dimension, and contains challenges and threats to the global security system. Annexation of Crimea, the situation in Eastern Ukraine are turning into a large-scale “frozen conflict”, which is a threat to security and stability not only on the European continent, but in the world at large. Leading Western countries and international organisations have not recognised the annexation of Crimea, thus, demonstrating political and diplomatic solidarity with Ukraine; have supported Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression in Donbas. Ukraine has received considerable external financial and material-technical support. “Restraining” sanctions against Russia have been implemented. Currently, Ukraine is in the epicentre of critical West-Russia confrontation, which is characterised by an unprecedented loss of mutual trust. Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical and unpredictable state. The political and diplomatic confrontation is ongoing; fundamental agreements and arrangements have been violated; the system of institutional interstate relations has been practically shattered; confrontation in the sphere of economy and energy sector is exacerbating, informational aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues. In general, current events give no reason to expect changes for the better in Russia’s policy towards Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current state of Kyiv-Moscow relations demands creating fundamentally different conceptual and strategic approaches to co-existence with Putin’s Russia, a review of international contacts system, introduction of specific measures towards Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

22. Judicial Reform in Ukraine: Current Results, Prospects and Risks of the Constitutional Stage

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The process of establishing the judiciary in Ukraine since its independence has been quite inconsistent and contradictory – not only due to its heritage, but also because it has often been accompanied by acute political confrontation and attempts of opposing political forces and governmental teams to gain control over the judiciary. Reformation activity that was initiated and implemented in this period did not lead to establishment of an independent and fair court in Ukraine. After the 2010 Presidential Election, the new President Viktor Yanukovych announced that another judicial reform was going to take place, which led to dramatic changes in the national judiciary. Analysis of these changes and their consequences gives reasons to assume that, through this reform, the President managed to enhance his control over judicial authority, to restrict its independence, and to weaken self-government of judges. Significant rotation amongst judges also took place. In general, it has considerably deteriorated judicial situation in Ukraine. Today, the judicial reform has reached its final – constitutional – stage. On 10 October 2013, the Verkhovna Rada pre-approved the Presidential draft Law “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine Strengthening the Independence of Judges”. The corresponding Decree of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine was supported by 244 deputies. All opposition factions of the Parliament (Batkivshchyna, UDAR, Svoboda) manifested against adoption of the law claiming that implementation of its provisions would compromise not only the judicial independence, but also the democracy in Ukraine. The course of preparation and adoption of this draft Law (obtaining, inter alia, positive resolution of the Venice Commission) revealed tendencies that have been characteristic of the 2010 judiciary reform since its initiation. Thus, national legislation in the recent years has been using European standards in quite a peculiar way by borrowing the form and filling it up with “appropriate” contents. In fact, what we have now is not an approximation of national laws to international judicial norms and standards, but adjusting these norms to situational needs by using controlled and dependent judiciary in Ukraine. Hence, this is a selective adoption of recommendations and guidelines of international institutions. As it is widely known, the Venice Commission gave a generally positive opinion on the draft Law mentioned above. It was this draft (as well as the resolution of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine and the declaration signed by 30 deputies of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe) that the President’s representative and deputies of the Party of the Regions faction mostly relied on when encouraging their colleagues to support pre-approving the bill. Accepting the above-mentioned documents of European institutions we should obviously have some reservations. Firstly, the draft law contains genuine “European” provisions able to deceive European structures that evaluate new laws from their own European perspective. Secondly, current evaluations of the “Ukrainian progress” by European institutions have somewhat enforced nature stipulated by soon-to-happen Vilnius summit and possibly by the Association Agreement to be signed between the European Union and Ukraine at the summit. While mainly stressing its positive progress towards the association, Europe also seeks to maintain Ukraine’s European integration prospects. Thirdly, there are reasons to assume that current authorities have used peculiar means to push its legislative initiatives not only inside (in the Parliament and Constitutional Court), but also outside the country – on the international realm. Preliminary approval of the Presidential draft Law on amending the Constitution has had a dramatic impact on the judicial reform. On the one hand, it has enabled to legitimise the key legislative changes approved in 2010 and to enshrine provisions in the Constitutions, implementation of which may politicise the judiciary to an even bigger extent and increase the dependence of judges. On the other hand, it has generated a political and expert discussion aimed at searching for a compromise, which results might involve the following: excluding the most risky provisions for the independence of judges and courts, at least, and preparing a new bill approved by all key political forces of the country, at best. Current situation calls for ensuring fair and independent justice, as well as stimulates governmental representatives, opposition and the society to look for optimal ways out.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Constitution, Judiciary, and Norms
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

23. Ukraine's European Integration: Internal Factors and External Influences

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, making an ultimate choice over its integration path is a sensitive and highly pressing issue for Ukraine. In November 2013, the 3rd summit of the Eastern Partnership in Vilnius is to see the signing of the Association Agreement, which aims for political association and economic integration, including a deep and comprehensive free trade area. This is a qualitatively new level of cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels based on strategic perspective. In fact, the Agreement will mark the start of implementing the far-reaching reforms in different sectors of domestic life in Ukraine designed to draw the country closer to meeting the standards of a state-candidate for accession to the EU. Apparently, the success of the Agreement remains conditional on joint efforts on behalf of the authorities, opposition, civil institutions, and Ukrainian society in general. One should keep in mind that the signing of the Agreement will give a start to the long process of its ratification by national parliaments of the EU countries. However, there exists a real opportunity to ensure practical implementation of some items of the document in the near future, which will give an impetus to strengthening contacts between Kyiv and Brussels and promote internal transformations in Ukraine. If the document is not signed or implemented too slowly and inconsistently, as was the case with prior arrangements with the EU, Ukraine will lose its historic opportunity. Meanwhile, the Customs Union countries (first of all, Russia) step up efforts to have Ukraine join that alliance, and later – the Eurasian Economic Union. That said, the Customs Union leaders see the Memorandum of Deeper Integration between Ukraine and the Eurasian Economic Commission signed on 31 May 2013, as the first step on the road to Ukraine’s Eurasian integration. The two processes – preparations for signing of the Association Agreement with the EU on the one hand, and new attempts of Russia to involve Ukraine in the Eurasian integration on the other – happen to coincide in time. At that, representatives of both the EU and the Customs Union speak of a need for a clear choice – Ukraine has to either sign the Agreement of Association with the EU, or join the Customs Union. Integration projects of Brussels and Moscow in the post-Soviet space differ in nature, substance and goals. Russia, while trying to create a regional structure counterbalancing the EU on the European continent, uses “energy incentives” to seduce Ukraine. At that, no attention has been paid to ensuring democratic nature of the country’s development. For Brussels, proper democracy, civil society, rule of law, independent judicial system and respect for human rights and freedoms have always played a decisive role in bringing Ukraine closer to European integration. Choosing between two integration lines means choosing between different basic and fundamental values, between two different models of Ukraine’s further development. Ukraine either joins the EU uniting European countries on the basis of European norms, rules and standards, or becomes a member of a union of post-Soviet states with transitional economies and numerous problems with democracy. Ukraine’s European choice is strongly influenced by a number of internal and external factors. The internal factors hindering Ukraine’s movement towards the EU include the practice of selective justice, weak electoral legislation, lack of real anti-corruption efforts, and slow pace of reforms envisaged by the Association Agenda. Solving these problems has been prioritised by the EU. The same was indicated in the conclusions of the EU Council of Ministers (10 December 2012) and the so-called “Füle list”, released later. The external factors include strong geopolitical influence exerted on Ukraine by both the EU and Russia. Today, this influence is growing with Moscow and Brussels showing strong willingness to see Ukraine join their integration projects. The analysis of the situation cited in this report shows that the European way of development best of all goes in line with national interests of Ukraine. It is also evident that Ukraine’s European choice should not be an alternative to the development of mutually advantageous, equal and transparent relations in different sectors with countries of the Customs Union, first of all – Russia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Energy Policy, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

24. The Role of International Organizations in the National Security of Ukraine

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
On 17 September 2013, Kyiv hosted the International Conference “The Role of International Organisations in the National Security of Ukraine”. The Conference was organised by the Razumkov Centre jointly with the NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine and the Ukrainian Diplomatic Academy under the auspices of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, and with the support from the Embassies of Norway, Poland and Switzerland in Ukraine and the Ministry of Defence of Estonia. The event had taken place two months before the EU Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, where Ukraine and the EU were supposed to sign the Association Agreement. After long and tough talks between the Ukrainian authorities and European partners, the parties came close to an uneasy compromise. It seemed that the willingness to sign the Agreement – at least on the part of Ukraine – was beyond doubt. Almost all the panellists, despite some reservations, expressed their confidence in the strategic importance of such a step for Ukraine’s future. Furthermore, the time was approaching to sum up the results of Ukraine’s chairmanship in the OSCE – one of the leading international organisations dealing with European security issues. That is why, the Conference has become an important element of fervent discussions both in Ukraine and abroad about the future of security and sustainable development in Europe. The agenda proposed by the Conference organisers covered different security domains: military, economic, humanitarian, and energy sector. Despite a specific subject matter allocated to each panel and the appropriate selection of participants, all the aspects were closely interwoven during the discussions, which directly reflected the nature of current threats and challenges and complex interconnections of different security aspects. To ensure a productive discussion, the Razumkov Centre prepared the Discussion Paper based on the Expert Meeting of 24 July 2013, which involved representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the National Institute for Strategic Studies, leading non-governmental think-tanks (NOMOS Centre, the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, the Centre for International Studies, Uniworld International Foundation), along with the results of an expert survey and public opinion survey. This issue of journal contains: Discussion Paper prepared for the International Conference; Expert assessments of Ukraine’s cooperation with international organisations; Public opinion on some aspects of Ukraine’s foreign and security policy; Conference Participants’ presentations; Articles by the military-political experts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, International Organization, National Security, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

25. Land Reform in Ukraine

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Land reform in Ukraine lasts for over 20 years now – slow, contradictory, with numerous violations of interests and rights of rural workers and existing laws. During 1990’s - early 2000’s, most of the villagers became the owners of land parcels, but were left with no means for land cultivation and no funds for their purchase (in particular, due to the loss of savings and galloping inflation in the early 1990’s, as well as due to a time-gap between distribution of former collective lands and the actual distribution of collective farms property among the new landowners). As a result, the villagers – sometimes not voluntarily and not always to the tenant of their choice – were forced to lease out their lands. According to the Razumkov Centre’s survey results, as of February 2012, about 52% of landowners leased out their land parcels, and only 7% of them were fully satisfied with leasing terms, another 7% – did not really know who they lease out their land to, 36% – were unaware how much their tenants should be paying them. At the same time, private ownership rights to land of rural workers are not absolute, since the disposal of land is restricted to inheritance and/or sale for public or community needs. As a result, no one is entitled to buy an agricultural land. This situation has emerged as a result of the moratorium on sale and purchase of agricultural land, introduced in 1992. It remains in power for over 20 years now. During this time, the issue of agricultural land market – one of the most controversial and politicized issues in Ukraine – has been widely discussed. However, even today, it seems there is no actual or expected consensus on the issue either in the society or among political forces.
Topic:
Government, Public Policy, Land Reform, and Farmers
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

26. Eu-Ukraine-Russia Relations: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
T oday, relations between Kyiv, Brussels and Moscow are rather complex and contradictory. High degree of uncertainty, the credibility gap and conflict of interests are its main features. Contacts between the parties are burdened with ideological opposition, “frozen” conflicts, and competing integration projects in the post-Soviet area. The relations between the EU, Russia and Ukraine in political, economic, energy, security and humanitarian spheres are rather problematic. This situation creates additional risks for the European security, does not correspond to the parties’ interests and requires some joint measures and mutually accepted solutions to the issues on the agenda.
Topic:
International Relations, National Security, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

27. Ukrainian Parliamentarianism, Parliament and 2012 Rada Elections

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
F ormation of parliamentarism in Ukraine has been a long and complex process reflecting all the difficulties of structuring the Ukrainian society, imperfect state and party building, and improper political and legal culture of national politics. Now, the country goes through an electoral campaign for the seventh Parliament. However, there are no grounds to speak of established principles and correspondence of the national parliamentarism to democratic standards, a stable legislative framework for parliamentary elections and constitutional status, powers and functions of parliament. Almost every election campaign has taken place under a new law, which changes not only the procedures but also the electoral system; the Parliament’s role and place in the national system of state governance also has been changing. The latest change occurred as the result of reinstatement of Ukraine’s Constitution in the wording of 1996 in 2010. The Verkhovna Rada of the 6th convocation gave consent to that act, having initiated dangerous trends of gradual weakening of the constitutional status of the Ukrainian Parliament, narrowing its powers, and enhancing its accountability to the President. At the same time, there have been trends toward declining quality of legislative process, and deteriorating performance of its representative, statuary and supervisory functions by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. All this has led to a critically low level of public support for the parliamentary activity, which, according to the polls, barely exceeded 4% last year. Such a situation may discredit in the eyes of the Ukrainian society the very concept of parliamentarism as a political institution and democratic principles of state governance as a whole. In such conditions, the importance of the ongoing parliamentary elections has been increasing. Their results will effectively determine the fate of the Ukrainian parliamentarism and key features of further foreign and domestic policy of the country.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Parliamentarism, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

28. Ukraine’s Foreign Policy: Gains, Problems, and Prospects

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Among the main tasks and functions of the foreign policy, I wish in the first place to mention the following. First, the foreign policy is to provide reliable external guarantees for national security, state sovereignty and territorial integrity. Second, the authorities’ actions on the international arena should concentrate on creation of a comprehensive effective system to protect the rights of Ukrainian citizens abroad. Third, the foreign policy is to utmost promote the national economy development, secure a decent place for Ukraine in the international division of labour, promote interests of domestic business on the world markets. And finally – Ukraine’s action in the foreign policy should be consistent, predictable, responsible and clear for our partners both in the West and in the East. Effective attainment of those tasks requires, on one hand, internal stability, consolidation of the lead political forces and institutes of governance, which will ensure public legitimacy of the foreign political course. On the other – optimal, balanced and clearly coordinated mechanisms of foreign political activity need to be created. Unfortunately, recently, those preconditions have not been fully provided in Ukraine. The Foreign Ministry was working in difficult conditions of domestic instability and under the influence of the global economic crisis. But even in such conditions, the foreign office managed to achieve substantial gains and improve the situation in the main foreign policy domains. However, along with gains, Ukraine’s foreign policy now faces a number of challenges that, in absence of an adequate response, can bring about unfavourable trends and hinder attainment of Ukraine’s national interests. Reversal of those trends presents an urgent and priority task for the new government formed in Ukraine after the 2010 presidential elections.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

29. Ukraine-Russia Relations in the Energy Sector: Status, Recent Development Trends, and Prospects

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Separation of Ukraine-Russia bilateral relations in the energy sector is rather conventional, since they objectively fit into the relations of both countries with a third party – first of all, countries of Europe (in particular, the EU) as consumers of energy resources transported across the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, both from the viewpoint of the process chain (producer – transit state – consumer) and from the economy viewpoint (seller – provider of transportation services – buyer) those relations should be viewed in a trilateral format.1 More than that, it may be argued that problems stockpiled in that sector of relations between Ukraine and Russia and in Europe in general may be solved solely in such trilateral format.2 On the other hand, since early 2000s Russia has been insistently pursuing a policy translating relations with partners in the energy sector into a bilateral format where it is usually stronger and uses that advantage to defend and promote its interests and/or the interests of its state monopolies and separate financial-industrial groups. That is why there are grounds to view the Ukraine-Russia relations in the energy sector as bilateral, but with account of presence of a third party there, first of all, the EU, as Ukraine declares its integration in it and is now engaged in formulation of common norms and rules of the European energy markets. This section briefly outlines interim results and problems of the Ukraine-Russia relations in the oil, gas and nuclear sectors – more interrelated and interdependent than other domains of the energy sector.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Oil, Bilateral Relations, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

30. Swedish model of social and economic development

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Although Ukraine and Sweden have had close historic ties and maintain an active dialogue now, Ukrainians still little know of that Nordic country. It remains a secret for many our compatriots, what prompted the two geographically remote nations to ally 300 years ago, when the fate of our independence was decided, and to be partners today, when the fate of Ukraine’s European future is at stake. Answers to those questions may be found in both rational and irrational domains, but the undisputed fact is that Ukraine and Sweden are united by something more than the national colours.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Sweden