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1. The Future of Elections in Ukraine

Author:
Razumkov Centre
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The project «The Future of Elections in Ukraine: The Factor of War» was carried out by the Razumkov Centre with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ukraine in May- September 2024, during the third year of Ukraine’s full-scale war against the russian aggressor. The project included an analytical report, a nationwide sociological and expert survey, an offline roundtable involving experts in the fields of law and political science, and original articles by renowned experts in electoral law. This publication contains an abridged version of the analytical report and the main findings of the expert and sociological surveys in descriptive form. All project materials (in Ukrainian) are available in a special issue of the National Security and Defence journal (№1-2, 2024). '
Topic:
National Security, Law, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Science, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: From Full-Scale War to Conflict Resolution and Post-War Recovery

Author:
Yuri Yakymenko, A. Bychenko, Makysm Bielawski, V. Zamiatin, and Oleksiy Melnyk
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
For 570 days, Ukraine has been living in a full-scale war against the russian aggressor, defending its freedom, independence and very right to exist. During this time, our country has suffered losses and destruction on a scale unimaginable on the European continent after the World War II. Towns and villages wrecked to the ground, tens of thousands dead, artificially created environmental disasters and constant nuclear blackmail, the deportation of Ukrainian children – an outright act of genocide against the Ukrainian people, systematic destruction of the country’s energy, transport and agricultural infrastructure, the war against the civilian population, the war-induced migration and demographic crisis are just a few points in the long list of disasters caused by russian aggression.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

3. Strategic Partners of Ukraine (Realities and Priorities in War)

Author:
M. Pashkov, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, P. Stetsiuk, S. Chekunova, M. Mischenko, and O. Pyshchulina
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The topic of strategic partnership is particularly relevant due to the new warinduced priorities and goals of Ukraine’s foreign policy, and to dynamic geopolitical trends and processes. The Ukraine war has generated new challenges and threats, triggered a dangerous polarisation of the international community, escalated conflict and unpredictability both globally and regionally. Amidst russia’s large-scale aggression, Kyiv is undergoing complex processes of establishing war diplomacy, improving and transforming its goals, objectives and priorities in key foreign areas, including the principles and motives of strategic partnership. Ukraine’s actions in the global arena are now generally focused on ensuring the country’s defence capability, integrating into the EU and NATO, acquiring security guarantees, gaining support for the country’s reconstruction, etc. In the settings of the ongoing war, there are ambiguous processes of countries’ positioning in relation to russian aggression and determining relevant models of behaviour. In general, the international community can be divided into a coalition of Ukraine’s allies; states in solidarity with our country; «neutral» countries distancing themselves from the war; and supporters of the aggressor. In the meantime, these positions evolve, with more countries becoming in solidarity with Ukraine in its fight for freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The realities of war have affected the nature of Ukraine’s partnership with other nations and necessitated an inventory of the foreign relations system. Therefore, the most important indicators of bilateral relations in terms of priority and strategic nature include support for Ukraine’s resistance to russian invaders and condemnation of the aggressor’s crimes; mutual long-term interests based on the values of democracy and the rule of law; and promotion of Ukraine’s European and EuroAtlantic integration. The war-related processes and trends call for updating the circle of states whose relations with Ukraine are defined as priority and strategic, according to the current Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine. Obviously, the respective position of a particular country in this critical period for Ukraine will determine the level and model of bilateral relations in the future. In turn, it seems appropriate to regulate the legal framework for the introduction of strategic partnership tools.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

4. Ukraine on the Way To the EU: Realities And Prospects

Author:
O. Pashkov, K. Markevych, P. Stetsiuk, S. Chekunova, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, L. Shanghina, and O. Shnyrkov
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The Ukrainian experience of European integration in the conditions of war is unique. The country resisting the large-scale armed Russian aggression, suffering huge human, financial and economic losses, acquired the status of a candidate for accession to the EU, continues European integration, deepens partnership with the EU in different sectors, implements recommendations of the European Commission and introduces provisions of the Agreement of Association into practice. The beginning of negotiations on accession to the EU, further implementation of pro-European reforms in different areas, adaptation to the European Union acquis, etc. are to follow
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, European Commission, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

5. Political and Ideological Orientations of Ukrainian Citizens in the Conditions Of The Russian Aggression

Author:
Yuri Yakymenko, A. Bychenko, V. Zamiatin, M. Mishchenko, O. Ruzumnyi, P. Stetsiuk, and L. Shanghina
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The all-out Russian armed aggression against Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022, has fundamentally changed the situation in Ukraine and the world. Thousands of Ukrainians were killed, many fell victims to torture and inhuman treatment, millions left the country, saving their lives from the war, the aggressor forcibly deported from Ukraine thousands of adults and children.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Ideology, Civilians, Social Cohesion, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

6. Ukraine’s European Integration: The Russian Factor

Author:
Hanna Pashkova and Halyna Balanovych
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The pace and effectiveness of Kyiv’s European integration course depends on many internal and external factors. The key ones being the political will of Ukrainian government, ability to implement and dedication to real pro-European changes in the country that would be tangible for Ukrainian citizens. This is the internal factor that is the main issue on the path to integration into the European community. That being said, European integration is a two-way street. The quality and level of Kyiv-Brussels relations to a great extent depend on the position and engagement of the European side, including EU’s internal processes and trends, which are rather complex, controversial and sometimes centrifugal in their nature at the moment. We are talking about an increased sentiment of restoring partnerships with Russia in the “business as usual” format inside the EU’s business and political circles. Russian hybrid aggression is a dangerous factor. For the Russian leadership that views post-Soviet countries as its zone of “privileged” interest, an independent Ukraine headed towards Europe and NATO is both a challenge and a threat. Firstly, Kyiv’s successful European integration is an incentive for other post-Soviet countries to step up, which means a failure for Russia’s plans of “forced” reintegration of Eurasian countries. Secondly, Kyiv achieving success in its European project is a model for Russian citizens and a convincing evidence of the inability of Russia’s authoritarian regime to offer an attractive democratic model of social development. This is why the Russian regime is using all of its available “hybrid warfare” to prevent Ukraine from integrating into Europe – from political and diplomatic pressure, economic blockade, information warfare to military intervention – occupation of Crimea and Donbas. Currently, Ukraine is a training ground and a testing area for Russia’s massive purposeful expansion into the EU territory. In particular, this includes discrediting the unifying European values and institutions, disorienting public opinion, interfering with elections, formation of pro-Russian lobby within the European establishment, support of radical movements, etc. The goal of this influence is to disintegrate the EU, reform Europe’s political system in line with the Russian scenario. An important factor is the EU member states’, institutions’ and other countries’ assistance and solidarity with Ukraine, as well as sanctions introduced by the West. Regrettably, over the period of almost six years, the sanctions have failed to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine, failed to change the nature of Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy. Yet it is certainly crucial that the EU and other countries uphold a common course of conduct in regard to Russia, maintain and strengthen the “sanctions frontline”. At the same time, assessing the current confrontation in the notional Ukraine-EU-Russia “triangle”, it is worth noting that these problems have been temporarily overshadowed by the global COVID-19 pandemic. On the one hand, the pandemic has affected internal and external priorities of different countries, has shaken the global economy. On the other – it has “hit the pause button” for Ukraine’s European integration, made adjustments to EU-Ukraine Association Agreement implementation plans. Obviously, the problems that have been temporarily postponed will later resurface again – this time in the new circumstances and in the new form.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Conflict, Regional Integration, and Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

7. The War in Donbas: Realities and Prospects of Settlement

Author:
Hanna Pashkova and Halyna Balanovych
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The first section looks into some geopolitical aspects of the Russian intervention in Donbas; reviews goals and peculiarities of Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine; studies the role and impact of the West in resolving the conflict; and assesses the “Donbas” policy of Ukraine. The second section describes the overall trends and processes in occupied territories in the military, economic, energy, political, information and environmental spheres. The third section provides possible scenarios of developments in the conflict zone and assesses chances and prospects of deploying the UN peacekeeping mission to Donbas. The fourth section offers conclusions, as well as a set of proposals for resolving the conflict in the East of Ukraine. The first
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Donbas

8. Root Causes of the Non-Enforcement of the Domestic Judicial Decisions in Ukraine

Author:
Alla Chernova, Halyna Balanovych, and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The study was carried out based on the “Methodology for international and/or national expert analysis to determine the main reasons for the non-enforcement of decisions rendered by the domestic courts of Ukraine” within the Council of Europe’s project “Supporting Ukraine in the execution of judgements of the European Court of Human Rights”. This study was particularly related to the devastatingly low levels of the enforcement of judgments and, accordingly, the need to improve the situation in this area. The project implementation revealed the root causes of the non-enforcement of three categories of court decisions (social disputes, labour disputes and decisions concerning legal entities falling under the responsibility of the State or the State itself), as well as other problems linked to the statistics and the register of court decisions The first problem was associated with the impossibility of finding necessary cases. The experts identified systemic flaws in record-keeping and data comparability of the Unified State Register of Court Decisions (USRCD) and the Unified State Register of the Enforcement Proceedings with respect to all these categories of judgments. For example, of 2,760 court decisions in “social disputes” selected for analysis, the experts could only find 2,254 judgements in the USRCD under the provided requisites. The analysis revealed systemic violations of the relevant legislation, such as illegal reduction of payments, significant narrowing of the scope of plaintiffs’ rights by bylaws, misapplication of the budget legislation by the authorised government bodies. Speaking of labour disputes, the analysis covered 1,505 unexecuted court decisions. Causes for the non-enforcement in this category of decisions included the lack of necessary state funding (lack of budgetary allocations) at the time of the matter of controversy leading to the state’s failure to fulfil its obligations, improper exercise of powers by government authorities and state-owned enterprises, flaws in normative regulation of labour relationships, repeated reorganisations of one and the same enterprises leading to the interpretation confusion of these procedures and their improper execution. As for the decisions concerning legal entities falling under the responsibility of the State or the State itself, 250 of 14,324 court decisions of this category were subjected to expert analysis. It revealed inefficiency of the State Execution Service in recovering such debts, the improper performance of duties by the public executors, unlawful assistance to the debtor or delays in the enforcement of court decisions, obstruction of the plaintiffs’ right to use the mechanisms stipulated by the Law “On State Guarantees for the Enforcement of Judgements”. The study has also analysed the national legislation governing the system of bodies and the procedure for enforcement of judgments. Therefore, if taken into consideration by the relevant authorities, the project results presented in this publication can contribute to the understanding of current situation with the enforcement of judgements and developing approaches to their better execution.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Courts, Judiciary, and European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR)
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

9. Analysis of Constitutional Changes Concerning Justice

Author:
Valeria Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Independent judiciary is an essential attribute of a democratic government and an important factor in establishing the Rule of Law. Events of the late 2013 and early 2014 confirmed the presence of serious problems in the Ukrainian judiciary. Not only it was inable to resist the arbitrary rule but also condoned and encouraged manifestations of autocracy. This objectively angered the society, which was receptive to immediate measures aimed at restoring confidence in the judiciary and the right to a fair trial. As these measures failed to deliver tangible positive results, the judiciary remained disoriented and demoralised. The need to reform the constitutional basis of the functioning of the judiciary became apparent. The Constitutional Commission established by the President of Ukraine has developed draft amendments to the Constitution (concerning justice), which on 2 June 2016 were adopted by the Parliament. Implementation of constitutional changes through necessary regulatory mechanisms was translated into action by adoption of several important laws – “On the Judiciary and the Status of Judges”, “On the High Council of Justice”, “On the Constitutional Court of Ukraine”, “On Agencies and Persons Performing Compulsory Enforcement of Court Decisions and Decisions of other Authorities”, and “On Amendments to the Commercial Procedure Code of Ukraine, the Civil Procedure Code of Ukraine, the Code of Administrative Justice of Ukraine and other Legislative Acts”. The process of implementing amendments to the Constitution concerning justice and the status of the Constitutional Court implies introduction of their provisions and legal mechanisms in the practice of establishing the judiciary bodies, appointment of judges and improvements in legal proceedings based on the new framework. The Constitutional Court, in turn, should gain genuine social recognition and respect by improving important elements of its status through exemplary adherence to its constitutional powers. In these processes, it is vital to promptly identify problems linked to inadequacy and unconstitutionality of certain provisions of the above laws, as well as the means of their application. This analytical report and all the materials presented in this publication are part of these efforts.
Topic:
Law, Public Opinion, Reform, Constitution, Justice, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

10. Ukraine on the Eve of Election Year: Public Demand, Positions of Political Actors, Outline of the New Government

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Year 2019 is not going to be easy. Apart from challenges caused by Russian military aggression against Ukraine, the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for March and October will be the main internal political factors further aggravating the situation in the country. The 2019 elections will take place in a challenging environment. First of all, this concerns the ongoing war with Russia, which will try to influence the elections results in efforts to bring loyal political leaders and parties to power in Ukraine. Other negative aspects include the society’s disappointment with current government, coupled with low public support of its institutions, individual political leaders and pro-government political forces. The nature and results of the upcoming election will be further affected by the division of supporters of Ukraine’s European path and the political forces declaring the same course into two camps, depending on their attitudes towards the current government. The rise of radicalism in the activities of some opposition parties, as well as significant growth of populism are quite alarming trends in the Ukrainian politics. Holding both elections in one year with brief interval between them is likely to escalate political struggle, which may result in reduced efficiency of the government with further suspension of the reform processes in anticipation of successive change of the President, the Parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers. The results of 2019 elections should give answers to the following key questions: will Ukraine continue its European integration course approved by the people of Ukraine during the Revolution of Dignity? Will newly elected institutions continue reforms? Which political leaders and forces will assume responsibility for the reforms and their results? Answers to these questions primarily depend on the Ukrainian voters, as well as on candidates and political forces competing for public confidence. The Razumkov Centre’s project “Ukraine on the Eve of Election Year: Public Demand, Outline of the New Government, and the Future of Reforms” aims at exploring current sentiments of citizens who will cast ballots on the one hand, and analysing readiness of political actors and suitability of their political “supply” for society’s “demand” on the other. By doing so, the project is set to outline the new Ukrainian government and its potential policies.
Topic:
Government, Public Opinion, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine