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371. Economic Challenges to Ukrainian Refugee Integration in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Atanas Dimitrov and Vasil Pavlov
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has resulted in the displacement of millions of Ukrainians, leading to socio-economic and political challenges for the host countries. The Refugee Response Plan, encompassing heavily affected EU Member States, has been the focus of this study, examining how the issue of refugee integration was addressed, with a specific emphasis on flaws and omissions in the approach. Various demographic and socioeconomic data and strategic national documents related to refugee integration were compared for this analysis. Employment was identified as a key tool for the integration of Ukrainian refugees. The findings revealed a lack of a common refugee integration policy among the surveyed countries despite similar past and current socioeconomic circumstances and security environments, including mixed migration. Ambiguities across these countries, including local population perceptions hindering Ukrainian refugee integration, were observed. Consequently, we assert the necessity for EU harmonized measures, emphasizing their long-term implementation to alleviate the economic burden of the war in Ukraine and provide predictability in the actions of individual governments.
Topic:
Economics, Refugees, Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

372. Ukraine’s political model recast: Assessing new opportunities and risks

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Ukrainian political model is in flux. The war against Russia has eroded the core elements of the old order, in which elections were a focal point of the political contestation and the main mechanism for resolving political conflicts. Oligarchs have lost their critical role in Ukrainian politics. Their impact on the media and the party system has weakened considerably, which is a very positive development for the country’s democratic progress. At the same time, the disappearance of the oligarchs as a quasi-institution facilitates the process of power concentration around President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Office. Given the absence of elections due to martial law, this poses the risk that the new political model might be tailored to the incumbent’s needs to the detriment of the public interest. As the war becomes protracted, societal pressure to reactivate comprehensive reforms in the country, including the fight against corruption, is increasing. This creates certain tensions between the national leaders and the general public. Ostensibly, the incumbent president cannot and will not be able to ignore this demand, especially if it is firmly and consistently supported by Western actors.
Topic:
Democracy, Oligarchy, Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

373. Franco-German leadership in European security: Engine in reverse gear?

Author:
Iro Särkkä and Minna Ålander
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany and France led the European response to Russia’s first war in Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The legacy of the failed Minsk process weighed on their ability to change course in 2022, as the required response went beyond economic sanctions and diplomatic negotiations. In both the French and the German case, there is a mismatch between self-perception and external expectations. France lacks the economic and military resources to substantiate its great-power identity, while Germany’s selective leadership is not on a par with its economic weight. As a result, neither French President Emmanuel Macron nor German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were able to provide convincing leadership in the initial stages of Russia’s second war in Ukraine in 2022. While the Franco-German reconciliation has historically constituted the core of European integration, their response to Russia’s war of aggression and its wider implications in Europe has made it clear that the Franco-German engine is struggling to provide coherent and effective wartime leadership. The two countries should not only acknowledge the enduring central role of the transatlantic link for European security, but also enhance cooperation with groups of smaller countries – and consider following their lead, too.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Leadership, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, France, and Germany

374. From Buffer to Frontier: Ukraine and the EU

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In June 2022, the European Union granted candidate status to Ukraine. A strong political statement, which was welcomed as such in Kyiv. But for a country at war, symbols do not suffice. Accepting a neighbour that is under invasion as a candidate for membership must mean accepting more responsibility for that neighbour’s survival. Ukraine was a buffer state; it has become a frontier state. The EU should finally come up with an overall plan to provide military support to Ukraine over the long term, gradually taking over the main effort from the United States. After one year of war, the time for piecemeal decisions (a dozen tanks now, another dozen in a month) is long past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

375. Russian Military Drones: Past, Present, and Future of the UAV Industry

Author:
Pavel Luzin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Since 2009, Russia has invested significant effort into developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, for military purposes. They have used drones for reconnaissance, targeting, electronic warfare, and direct strikes. Some of these UAVs have been used in Ukraine and Syria since 2014, while combat UAVs (i.e., the Orion and Altius drones) still were on the research and development phase at the beginning of 2022. However, after a year of war in Ukraine, the Russian military has lost the biggest part of its tactical reconnaissance and targeting UAVs. At the same time, it was still unable to deploy advanced combat UAVs. As soon as fall 2022, or roughly six months into Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine, Russia started the large-scale use of Iranian loitering munitions, and continues to be highly dependent on them as of fall 2023. Despite efforts towards increasing their production, Russia’s use of its own loitering munitions remains insignificant.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Russia-Ukraine War, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

376. Synchronized: The Impact of the War on Ukraine's Energy Landscape

Author:
Thomas Laffitte and Ihor Moshenets
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine was able to generate substantial revenues from the transit costs of Russian hydrocarbons destined for the European market. Despite the war, Russian oil (and some gas) continues to flow to Europe via Ukraine, and the latter continues to receive transit fees. In the field of hydrocarbons, although Ukraine is far from having hydrocarbon reserves equivalent to those of Russia, it has several assets to offer Europeans, including particularly large storage capacities. Fortunately, these storage facilities are located in the western part of the country, away from much of the fighting. Thanks to the successful synchronization of the Ukrainian and the EU power grids, the electricity trade continues. It has become a field of increased cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels, offering a potential blueprint for other sectors with a view to future integration. Despite the immense destruction caused by the Russian army, which specifically targeted the country’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine has shown extraordinary resilience. Ukraine can export electricity to its European partners, creating a profitable situation for both parties and good promises for the future. While the debate continues in Europe regarding the role of nuclear energy in the energy transition, it is already clear that in this domain, North American actors have the upper hand in Ukraine. Decisions made in Brussels on the exact contours of the energy transition will have a major influence on energy policy decisions made in Ukraine. The country has significant potential to produce decarbonized and renewable electricity.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Nuclear Energy, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

377. Mapping Cyber-related Missile and Satellite Incidents and Confidence-building Measures

Author:
Lora Saalman, Larisa Saveleva Dovgal, and Fei Su
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Cyber incidents that—whether due to human error, system malfunction or intentional targeting—impact satellite and missile systems extend beyond the ongoing war in Ukraine. These systems are essential to civilian and military operations and disrupting them has the potential to elicit conventional or even nuclear retaliation. Due to the centrality of satellite and missile-related infrastructure, cyber incidents impacting the functionality of such infrastructure have served as a catalyst for previous confidence-building measures (CBMs) that may provide a template for future ones. This paper builds on SIPRI work to map cyber-related missile and satellite incidents, as well as unilateral, bilateral and multilateral CBMs to provide takeaways meant to foster greater predictability and stability in cyberspace.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Weapons, Cyberspace, Confidence Building Measures, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Global Focus

378. Another Budget for a Country at War: Military Expenditure in Russia’s Federal Budget for 2024 and Beyond

Author:
Julian Cooper
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has been waged for over 650 days and has had a significant impact on the country’s economy and society. In April 2023 work started on a new three-year federal budget, which was signed into law at the end of November. It is based on a relatively optimistic economic forecast and is striking for the sharp increase in military spending planned for 2024. Spending under the budget chapter ‘national defence’ is expected to account for 29 per cent of total budget expenditure. This means that total military expenditure will increase to 7.1 per cent of GDP in 2024. Military spending is not the same as spending on the war: there are additional costs, some shown in the new budget. The budget indicates that the Russian government is firmly committed to pursuing the war to a successful conclusion, accepting that this will put pressure on social and economic spending.
Topic:
Budget, Military Spending, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

379. Cognitive War in Ukraine

Author:
Adam Paweł Olechowski
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article aims to identify social impact activities in the context of information operations conducted by Ukraine during the 2022 war. An analysis of the creation and spread of information threats as a result of Russia’s ongoing conflict is driven by the increasing impact of communication on global security. The content of the study highlights the impact of trends in the creation of information threats, which are the determinants of social risks. In the article, an analysis of creating information threats, including producing and reporting information in propaganda and the traditional and modern media, is of significant importance. The impact and role of mass media on awareness-raising is presented, revealing mechanisms for influencing public opinion.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Media, Disinformation, Russia-Ukraine War, and Social Impact Mechanisms
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

380. The Cyber Defense Assistance Imperative – Lessons from Ukraine

Author:
Aspen Digital
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a watershed moment, and unique in that a major nation-state had engaged in coordinated, convergent digital and physical attacks in an effort to conquer a neighboring country. Leaders will draw lessons from this conflict for years, but one is already clear: the ability to deliver cyber defense assistance must be a key national security capability. Informed by the ongoing work of a variety of organizations providing operational cyber support to Ukrainian institutions through the Cyber Defense Assistance Collaborative, this paper seeks to define cyber defense assistance, outline its primary component parts, and identify key lessons learned that can help inform how such assistance can be provided in future geopolitical conflicts. It also makes the case that an effective national security toolkit requires the ability to deliver cyber defense assistance to allies.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine