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32. The Children of War
- Author:
- Lila Roldán Vázquez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shaken the world order and has seriously disrupted international peace and security. The geopolitical impact, the causes of the war and the reasons invoked to justify the armed aggression have been widely discussed. Among the many facets of the war, there is one issue that requires special attention, since it constitutes, without a doubt, one of its most serious consequences: the death of hundreds of children and the abduction of thousands of them, in flagrant violation of humanitarian law. We aim to analyze the circumstances and consequences of these actions, which may constitute a war crime, and to evaluate their impact in the medium and the long term.
- Topic:
- Security, International Law, Children, Civilians, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
33. The Concept of "Putinism" and its Impact on the "Normalization" of Georgian-Russian Relations
- Author:
- Malkhaz Mikeladze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In view of the ongoing aggression in Ukraine, the Russian elite is formulating conceptual approaches to justify the inevitability of the escalating confrontation with the West and to encompass the foreign priorities of the Russian Federation. Within expert circles, this combination of approaches is increasingly labeled as “Putinism,” with the belief that its main components will have a decisive impact on Russia’s relations with other countries, including Georgia. Amidst the ongoing polarization of Georgian society, the normalization of relations with Russia emerges as one of the most important issues, a normalization process that has triggered radicalization and sharp confrontation between the government and opposition, further complicating the depolarization process and civil dialogue recommended by the European Union. These challenges themselves seem to be obstacles to European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Therefore, the article aims to review the basic principles of “Putinism” and provide a pragmatic evaluation for the “normalization” of Georgian-Russian relations.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Vladimir Putin, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia
34. Overview of the Russia-Ukraine War: Strategies and Expectations of the Conflict Parties
- Author:
- Mamuka Zhvania
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Non-objective and confusing viewpoints on the ongoing war in Ukraine often reverberate within the information sphere, and consequently in society, contributing to the dissemination of disinformation. Common suggestions include the notion that the West is weary of supporting Ukraine, Russia’s defeat is not advantageous for them, and that the West is endeavouring to compel Ukraine towards negotiations. The given article aims to elucidate the ongoing developments in the war and present a persuasive response to pertinent questions regarding the dynamics of hostilities and the strategies employed by the parties involved. The following is an analysis of the current stage of the Russia-Ukraine war, including its potential duration, the resources available to each party for conducting warfare, reasons for the delayed assistance from the West, and projections for the future.
- Topic:
- Disinformation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
35. Occupied Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region: Changes in Russian Politics from the 1990s to 2024
- Author:
- Mamuka Komakhia
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In the post-Soviet period, the Kremlin’s policy regarding the separatist regions of Georgia, Abkhazia, and the Tskhinvali region, underwent several stages of transformation. In the 1990s, Moscow positioned itself as a neutral mediator between the conflicting parties. However, following the August 2008 war and the subsequent recognition of the “independence” of these separatist regions, as well as the deployment of armed forces, Moscow became their main ally and security guarantor. Since 2022, after the onset of full-scale military aggression in Ukraine, Moscow has intensified efforts to increase its influence on these occupied regions, aiming for their full integration into Russia’s political, economic, and legal space. The article discusses the stages of transformation in Russian policy towards the occupied regions of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region from the 1990s to 2024, detailing and analysing changes at each stage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Separatism, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Abkhazia, and Tskhinvali
36. Where Georgia's U-Turn Comes from and Where it is Heading
- Author:
- Kakha Gogolashvili
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- For 30 years, Georgian governments have pursued European integration, reflecting the will of the majority. They have implemented European standards and reforms, culminating in 2022 with the ‘European Perspective’ and EU candidate status in 2023. Then, unexpectedly, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party began to ignore EU recommendations, prioritizing state sovereignty and independent decision-making. This stance, reminiscent of Putin’s “sovereign democracy,” led to controversial actions like resisting judicial reforms and improving the election code. Instead of aligning with the EU, the government began strengthening its economic ties with Russia, even after the invasion of Ukraine. The most notable action was adopting the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, mirroring Russia’s 2012 law aimed at controlling civil society and the media. This provoked protests, divided society, and alarmed international partners, increasing Georgia’s isolation from the democratic world and its vulnerability to authoritarian powers, especially Russia. Thus, the key questions are: Why has GD chosen this risky path? With most Georgians supporting European integration, how should the EU and the international community respond to GD’s policies steering the country away from Europe?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia
37. Freedom isn’t Free: A cost-benefit analysis of support for Ukraine
- Author:
- Bob Deen and Roman de Baedts
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- More than ten years after the Russian annexation of Crimea and two years after the large-scale invasion, Ukraine is still holding its own against Russia. This is not only due to the courage and efforts of the Ukrainians themselves, but also thanks to the extensive military, economic, and financial support packages from Europe and the US. For 2024, the government had allocated three billion euros for military support to Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression and also pledged an additional three billion for 2025. Following the UK, France, and Germany, the Netherlands has entered into a ten-year security cooperation agreement with Ukraine to ensure long-term support. The recently released AIV briefing note and a recent parliamentary letter also advocate for sustained support. However, this Western support is no longer a certainty or uncontested. Particularly in the US, but also in some European NATO countries, calls to halt support to Ukraine are slowly gaining more traction. The American support package of sixty billion dollars was stuck in the House of Representatives for months, causing significant difficulties for the Ukrainian armed forces. President Biden has scaled back his rhetoric from “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can”. New commitments for new aid to Ukraine stalled at the end of 2023 (with a nearly ninety percent drop), while promised ammunition quantities fell far short. A warning from French President Macron that a Western military intervention should not be ruled out received little support from his foreign counterparts. Although the issue of Western ‘boots on the ground’ also requires further attention, it is not addressed within this memo, and ‘support’ encompasses both economic and material assistance, but without the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine. Following Putin’s ‘election victory’ in March, the Kremlin escalated its war rhetoric. Government officials are now openly discussing ‘war,’ whereas previously, using that word could land one in prison. This fits into the rhetoric where NATO, rather than Ukraine, is portrayed as the aggressor. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the formation of two new combined arms Army Corps and accelerated the recruitment of new military personnel. Meanwhile, the Russian war industry is gearing up, producing large quantities of ammunition and equipment for the Russian war effort. The extensive import of artillery ammunition from North Korea and drones from Iran, among other capabilities, further complements Russian stocks. The consequences on the battlefield are already noticeable, as seen in the loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, and developments along the front since. Meanwhile, pressure on Ukrainian troops at the front is mounting. In an interview at the end of March, President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will have to cede more land if Western material support continues to be lacking. The renewed Northern front after the second Russian Kharkiv offensive is likely to further stretch Ukrainian defences and resilience in the near future. Despite overwhelming support in the Dutch parliament for continued support for Ukraine, there are nonetheless questions about the duration and scope of future assistance. The question regarding the costs and benefits of providing political, economic, and military support by the Dutch government is extremely relevant in this context. This constitutes more than a simple calculation where profit or loss is expressed in Euros. It also involves security risks and geopolitical and moral costs and benefits that cannot always be quantified in one-dimensional figures. It is therefore essential to adopt a broader understanding of costs and benefits, reasoned from the perspective of Dutch national security interests and the impact of international support on the outcomes of the conflict. An important consideration here is the extent to which support for Ukraine contributes to a military victory, a military loss, or a protracted conflict.
- Topic:
- Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
38. NATO Summits: Looking ahead from Washington to The Hague
- Author:
- Dick Zandee and Roman de Baedts
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The July 2024 NATO Summit in Washington DC confirmed that the Alliance is ‘back to the future’. Upon its 75th anniversary NATO took important decisions to further strengthen its political-military power in response to a variety of security challenges, in particular to the threat posed by Russia. Increased defence spending is starting to deliver results in improving the military capabilities of European Allies. NATO’s partnerships with the EU and with countries in the Pacific have been reinforced. Yet, dark clouds are hanging above the Alliance on its way from Washington to its next Summit in The Hague (June 2025). First and foremost, the US presidential elections on 5 November cast a shadow over the transatlantic cooperation, or even worse, may result in a category 5 hurricane for NATO if Donald Trump re-enters the White House. American military support for Ukraine could stop completely, increasing the pressure on European Allies to do more, or to end their ‘whatever it takes’ rhetoric. To ensure the US contribution to NATO, European Allies will need to step up their defence efforts, even under Democratic President Kamala Harris. The American focus on the Indo-Pacific/China is raising questions about the European role and contribution to the Alliance as well as to the Asia-Pacific region. This policy brief will address these major issues for the Alliance on the road from Washington to The Hague.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
39. How Syria, Ukraine and Gaza are transforming power dynamics in the Caucasus
- Author:
- Ilya Roubanis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- In 2017, Iran, Turkey and Russia met in Astana in a bid to determine the future of the Syrian Arab Republic without Western participation. As a byproduct of this episode, they started to develop a strategic policy understanding between themselves regarding the Levant: especially Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Since then, the war in Ukraine has broadened Iranian, Russian and Turkish cooperation to include the Caucasus. No longer able to ensure regional security but in need of effective sanction bypasses, Russia’s diminished profile created scope for a tighter web of economic partnerships between itself, Iran and Turkey. Using their 2017 Astana collaborative playbook, these three countries have now embarked on a process of creating new value chains, infrastructures, transport routes and regulatory arrangements in the Caucasus, which are no longer grafted onto the global liberal market economy but intend to form a subsystem of their own. The aim is to turn the Caucasus into an economic hub that ties the three partners together. This requires the establishment of stable security relations. The unresolved issue of control over southern Armenia’s Syunik region, a tense relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan and the war in Gaza are important tests for the nascent economic arrangements between Russia, Turkey and Iran. The brief intends to help Western policymakers understand the impact of sanctions on Russia/Iran, and of their support for the Israeli destruction of Gaza, on the prospects for stability and growth in the Caucasus.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Regional Politics, and Power Dynamics
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Caucasus, Middle East, Gaza, and Syria
40. Tit for tat: A turn in the Russian-Ukrainian war
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Ukrainian forces are expanding their incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, a surprise not seen since World War II. The Russian response has been traditional and disorganised. If Russia fails to repel the advance, Ukraine could regain control over the conflict and set new negotiation terms.
- Topic:
- Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Incursion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe