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931. Reforming Ukrainian Defense: No Shortage of Challenges

Author:
Isabelle Facon
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Three years after the Euromaidan protests and as the war in the east continues, the government has pursued significant military reforms. Kiev has published new strategic documents which reflect the complexity of the challenges facing Ukrainian national security. Pressure from NATO comes in addition to pressure from civil society, which manifests itself in numerous ways. Nonetheless, military reform in Ukraine is still suffering from a number of constraints related to the amount of resources available, resistance on the part of various national players and conflicts between different institutions.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Ukraine

932. Using Public Space in Kharkiv by Protesters in 2013-2014

Author:
Denys Kutsenko
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
The space of post-Soviet city centres used by protesters was especially analysed by Ukrainian and Russian scholars after the Orange Revolution, Euromaidan and Russian anti-election protests in 2011-2012. There were also works devoted to the Tahrir Square (Cairo, Egypt)1 and Taksim Square (Istanbul, Turkey)2, which appeared after Egyptian Revolution of 2011 and wave of demonstration and civil unrest in Instanbul in 2013. After protests in Russia and Ukraine city movements like coffee urbanism or hipster urbanism became more active and ideas of new urbanism spread with new strength.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Ukraine

934. First on the Front Lines – the Role of Volunteers in Countering Russia’s Military Aggression against Ukraine

Author:
Dmitri Teperik, Anna Bulakh, and Grigori Senkiv
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Russia’s military aggression gave rise to many spontaneous social and economic developments in Ukraine. At this critical moment, and against the backdrop of a series of dramatic events – the Revolution of Dignity in 2013–2014, the subsequent annexation of Crimea, and the armed conflict in the east of the country that developed from artificially provoked separatist sentiments directed from outside the region – people showed a strong will to self-organise, albeit for a short period of time. Thus, one can say that the birth of the mass volunteer movement played a decisive role in preserving the integrity of the Ukrainian state, thereby meeting the demands of the period of crisis. The patriotically-minded population, aware of the significant dangers posed by ongoing events, sought to fill the gaps of leadership that existed not only in political and socio-economic realms, but also in defence and national security. The voluntary movement thus partly assumed several functions of a government that had shown itself unable to respond effectively to hybrid threats – making it a unique phenomenon in the history of modern Europe. But just who were these volunteers? What motivated them and brought them together? How could ordinary people spontaneously organise themselves to contain the military threat – and to be first on the front lines? To explore such questions, ICDS established an interdisciplinary research team to study the involvement of volunteers in defending Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. Recognising that our study cannot cover every single aspect of this complex phenomenon, our objective instead has been a more modest one: to provide the public with an outside perspective that can foster deeper understanding of how a volunteer military movement can be formed during a chaotic period of active military operations. We hope that this analysis will be also useful to the Baltic states, where volunteers are already extensively involved in national defence. As expected, when we started the project we found that the phenomenon of military volunteers in Ukraine had been rather thinly studied. It is thus welcome that some publications covering and highlighting this topic have been released during our research period. It should also be noted that the personal stories of those who were “first on the front lines” still carry enormous emotional weight. In a country that is de facto still at war, it is difficult to track, fully understand, or reliably analyse complex processes such as the volunteer movement. Accordingly, our work required the development of an effective and objective approach to analysing the processes of creating, developing and integrating volunteer units. We hope that this report will serve as a starting point for further research and expert discussion.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Civil Society, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

935. Russia’s Electronic Warfare Capabilities to 2025: Challenging NATO in the Electromagnetic Spectrum

Author:
Roger N. McDermott
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
This study examines how and why Russia’s military has turned its attention since the reform initiated in late 2008 to more fully exploiting and developing significant use of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) by employing electronic warfare (EW) assets. This is consistent with the interest in various “force enablers” and in adopting network-centric approaches to military operations as the Russian military becomes further “informationised”. The report finds that Moscow is stepping up its efforts to renew and modernise the EW inventory, and this effort is complemented by changes to organisation, doctrine, command structure, training and tactics, as well as techniques and procedures. The effect of those changes is evident in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, where EW forms an organic part of Russia’s kinetic and non-kinetic operations—both in support of proxy forces and conducted independently. Further EW capability development will pose a serious challenge to the proper planning and execution of NATO’s defence of the Baltic states, and NATO’s entire Eastern Flank, in the event of a Russian assault. This capability is an integral part of Russia’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) approach and is clearly tailored to target NATO’s C4ISR. NATO’s planners must also understand that the Russian EW capability extends well beyond air defence or even A2/AD, as it is fielding a wider array of systems to assist, for example, psychological operations (PSYOPS) and cyber operations. Russia’s ability to contest the EMS, combined with its holistic military thinking, means that EW capability will be exploited and effects created well beyond the traditional realms in which NATO’s thinking about EW is rooted. We might witness an ever-growing convergence of Russia’s EW, cyber- and information warfare approaches, which will further challenge NATO’s concepts and practices. As a result, NATO needs to plan, revise its scenarios, and train to conduct defensive and offensive operations in a fiercely contested EMS battlespace. In their current form, NATO plans to defend its Eastern Flank including the Baltic states might be inadequate as they do not take account of the full spectrum of Russia’s current and future EW capabilities and their uses—as part of A2/AD approach and beyond. NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence and further development of its posture in the Baltic area, which might possibly include assets for integrated air and missile defence in the future, will fail to deliver the desired outcome if the Alliance falls behind in the contest for EMS dominance.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Hybrid Warfare, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Syria

936. Basic Principles and Means of the Formation of a Common Identity of Ukrainian Citizens

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The materials presented in this issue are a result of the third stage of the Razumkov Centre’s project “Formation of a Common Ukrainian National Identity under New Conditions: Features, Prospects and Challenges”. From the results of the previous stages of the project we were able to form a comprehensive picture of various identity aspects of Ukrainian citizens, their hierarchy and interrelations and to identify features determined by the impact of national, linguistic, cultural, age and other factors. A particular task of the project’s third stage was the research focus on basic components of identity: the system of values inherent to the citizens of Ukraine, their features and regional differences. The struggle to promote European values in Ukraine was the driving force of the Revolution of Dignity; and the continuing confrontation of Ukraine with Russian aggression represents a struggle of different value-based systems. Establishing common values as the basis for a common national identity is a critical task for consolidation of Ukrainian society. The results of the public opinion survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre in March 2017 and published herein make it possible not only to understand value orientations of Ukrainian society, but also to compare them with values of citizens of some European countries as well as values of Russian citizens. This was made possible by having the Razumkov Centre’s survey include the same questions used in the international comparative World Values Survey research. The results of the study confirm that formation of the value system of Ukrainians and their identity is affected by complex social and political processes – the military conflict with Russia, protracted economic crisis, and political instability. This leads to a conflicted and internally contradictory nature of these value orientations. Positive trends may be considered to include the predominance of a common civil identity, an increase in Ukrainian national identification. On the other hand, there is a concern about the low level of trust among citizens of Ukraine in other members of society and government institutions and reliance on a “strong leader”. Another task was to determine the key components of state policy on the formation of a common national identity in terms of its content, institutional and organisational elements. For this purpose the Razumkov Centre conducted the expert survey of 106 experts: representatives of national and local government, research and higher educational institutions, political parties and non-governmental organisations. Survey results demonstrated an understanding among the expert community of the procedural nature of a national identity formation and, at the same time, the need for targeted government actions in this area, including the development and implementation of the appropriate national policy. To gain a more comprehensive approach to formation of a common national identity, the Razumkov Center has conducted interviews with leading national scientists and experts in philosophy, political science, sociology, ethnic policy, linguistics, and cultural studies. Based on the results of all stages of the project, the Razumkov Centre has prepared an updated draft Conceptual Approach to the formation of a common national identity of Ukrainian citizens. The Razumkov Centre believes that this document could be the basis for further discussion, elaboration, adoption and implementation by the government. “Hybrid” war waged against Ukraine makes these steps especially urgent.
Topic:
Citizenship, Ethnicity, Language, Nation-State, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

937. Political Culture and Parliamentarism in Ukraine: Current State and Main Problems

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The Revolution of Dignity, countering Russia’s aggression and the controversial, at times painful for society, process of reform implementation in different sectors have significantly aggravated the problem of efficiency of people’s interests representation mechanisms operated by government bodies, as well as the issue of people exercising their constitutional right to participate in the management of public affairs. The evolving relationship between government and society attests, on yet another occasion in the modern history of Ukraine, to the exact same phenomenon: the period of society’s enthusiasm, active, even sacrificial participation in political processes, and high public expectations change to disappointment, despair and apathy threatening to turn into aggression. Electing candidates, who in the moment of elections seemed to match public expectations for government representatives, changes to negative, even hostile attitude with time. The level of trust in elected higher government institutions in such periods drops from highest possible to minimal levels, as it happened in 2005-2009 and 2014-2017. Today, the growing activism of civil society and manifestations of its major creative potential after the second Maidan are combined with the risks and dangers that this energy might become destructive for democracy. This problem has two components: special aspects of people’s political culture, on the one hand, and the efficiency of mechanisms for implementing their political will, representative institutions – on the other. Without understanding these aspects, their mutual influence and correlation, the process of improving democracy institution in Ukraine will keep going on according to the “trial and error” scenario, while political system operation remains doomed to regular crises, which might turn into more “revolutions” at extreme points. Democratic system stability today is impossible without further constructive (not just protesting) participation of citizens equipped with knowledge of political institutions and skills to participate in them. The main goal of the Razumkov Centre’s Project “Political Culture and Parliamentarism in Ukraine: Ways to Improve Representative Democracy” is to use the study of the current state and special aspects of Ukrainian citizens’ political culture, in particular, their attitude to interest representation institutions, and analysis of the most topical problems influencing the efficiency of operation of the highest representative and the only legislative body in Ukraine – the Verkhovna Rada, in order to create recommendations for the development of an adequate policy for citizens’ political culture formation and optimisation of political institutions with the purpose of raising the quality of democratic representation.
Topic:
Citizenship, Domestic Politics, Political Culture, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

938. Democracy and its Deficits: The path towards becoming European-style democracies in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Author:
Ghia Nodia, Denis Cenusa, and Mikhail Minakov
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are three participating states of the European Partnership that have chosen to conclude Association Agreements with the European Union, often at the expense of relations with their most powerful neighbour, Russia. They are also rather similar in their levels of democratic development. Within a post-Soviet space, they stand out for their relatively high level of democratic freedoms and political pluralism; none of them, however, can be considered a consolidated democracy, and most analysts describe them as uncertain or hybrid political regimes that combine features of autocracy and democracy. This paper offers a comparative analysis of the three countries’ political systems and aims to interpret both the roots of their relative success, and the nature of the deficits that prevent them from consolidating their democratic institutions. Among these deficits are problems stemming from ethnic, regional and cultural conflicts; strong and weak features in their general constitutional systems; the links between democratic development and government capacity to produce public goods; state capture (including control over the most influential media organisations) by powerful oligarchs and endemic corruption; underdevelopment of political parties and party systems; insufficient trust towards institutions of electoral democracy and a resulting propensity to use extra-constitutional means of political struggle. Civil society organisations have also failed penetrate the wider public and the anti-liberal discourse of traditionally dominant churches and anti-Western media and civil society groups is often supported by Russia. Despite these structural challenges, the commitment to European values and norms demonstrated by societies in these three countries gives hope that they can eventually consolidate their democratic institutions. It is argued that closer ties to the EU are important in explaining their relatively high level of democratic development. For this reason, the consistent and enhanced commitment of the European Union to this region is crucial to their continued success in this area.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

939. The Fifth Eastern Partnership Summit: Between hyperbole and understatement

Author:
Hrant Kostanyan
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Summits are glitzy events that bring together the highest level of officials – the heads of state and government. These occasions naturally attract the interest of both the media and the public, raise expectations, increase tensions, create drama and heighten the rhetoric – but sometimes they end in disappointment. And this is exactly what the EU would like to avoid in the upcoming 5th Eastern Partnership (EaP) summit, which will bring together most of the leaders of the EU and its Eastern partners – namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – on November 24th in Brussels. The summit will be essentially a stocktaking exercise in which its principals reflect on the difficulties that the Partnership has encountered and the reforms it has undertaken to meet and mitigate the growing challenges. But more importantly, in the midst of the political hyperbole, the summit will aim to chart a pragmatic way forward to bring about tangible and positive results for citizens in a host of sectors ranging from energy efficiency and transport to youth employment and SMEs.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

940. Policy and Legislative Challenges to Non-Discrimination, Minority Protection and Diversity Issues in Ukraine

Author:
Iryna Solonenko
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Ukraine is a country populated by many national groups. As recorded in the 2001 census, the main national groups2 living in Ukraine (apart from Ukrainians, which constitute the majority) include: - Russians 8,334,100 (17.3%) - Belarusians 275,800 (0.6%) - Moldovans 258,600 (0.5%) - Crimean Tatars 248,200 (0.5%) - Bulgarians 204,600 (0.4%). Ukraine also has smaller populations of Polish, Jewish, Romanian, Armenian, Hungarian, and other groups; altogether 100 different national groups according to the census. In some territories of Ukraine national minorities live so compactly that in some settlements (towns or villages) they comprise the majority or over one-third of the population. This is the case in the Transcarpathian, Chernivtsi, and Odesa oblasts (regions), as well as in Crimean Autonomous Republic, which was annexed by Russia in March 2014. As in many countries, ethnic and linguistic borders do not necessarily align in Ukraine: many of those who think of themselves as belonging to certain national groups (as reported by 2001 census), speak another language. Thus, although 4.6% of the Ukrainian population reported they belonged to a national group other than Ukrainian or Russian, only 2.9% named a language other than Ukrainian or Russian as their native language. Only 0.1% of them considered Ukrainian to be their native language. Between 1% and 89% of them (depending on ethnicity) consider Russian to be their native language. For instance, among Hungarians this share is 1% and among Greeks it is up to 89%. While 17% of the Ukrainian population said they were of Russian ethnic affiliation, 26.6% named Russian as their native language, indicating that a share of people who consider themselves to be of non-Russian ethnic affiliation regard Russian as their native language.
Topic:
Nationalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Language
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea