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1. Rethinking Transnational Terrorism: An Integrated Approach

Author:
Martha Crenshaw
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The 2011 civil war in Syria attracted thousands of fighters from at least seventy countries to join the Islamic State. Al-Shabaab carried out large-scale attacks on civilian targets in Uganda and Kenya as retribution for the deployment of peacekeeping forces in Somalia. In this report, Martha Crenshaw considers the extent to which civil war and foreign military intervention function as a rationale for transnational terrorism, and how understanding the connections between terrorism, civil war, and weak governance can help the United States and its allies mount an appropriate response.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, Non State Actors, Islamic State, Transnational Actors, Peace, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Syria, Somalia, and United States of America

2. Building Blocks and Challenges for the Implementation of the Global Compact on Refugees in Africa

Author:
Sergio Carciotto and Filppio Ferraro
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Forced displacement continues to be a major challenge to human security across the globe. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the global population of forcibly displaced people increased by 2.3 million people in 2018, and by the end of the year, more than 70 million individuals were forcibly displaced worldwide (UNHCR 2019a). UNHCR also estimated that, in 2018, 13.6 million people were newly displaced as a result of conflicts and droughts (ibid.). Building on the predicament of global sustainability and the 2030 agenda for sustainable development, the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) is a framework based on four strategic objectives: to (1) ease pressures on host countries, (2) enhance refugee self-reliance, (3) expand access to third-country solutions, and (4) support conditions in countries of origin for return in safety and dignity (UNHCR 2018; UN General Assembly 2019). The GCR urges the international community to respond comprehensively and innovatively to the plight of refugees, and to make a paradigm shift in global humanitarian aid to emphasize refugee self-reliance and livelihoods. One of the risks of such a nonbinding and thin agreement, however, is that the GCR will give rise to a bureaucratic process that “does not come even close to dependably addressing the operational deficits of the refugee regime” (Hathaway 2019, 594). This article looks closely at the prospects for the GCR in sub-Saharan Africa based on the need to shift from a humanitarian system of “care and maintenance” to comprehensive and effective development responses to refugee crises. It also discusses some of these experiences and best practices to promote a resilience-based development approach. It recognizes that development initiatives implemented or still to be implemented under the normative framework of the GCR and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) are subject to a multiyear planning and implementation cycle. Therefore, this article does not intend to evaluate their efficacy or measure progress under the GCR, but rather to identify key challenges and to highlight achievements and promising initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa. It particularly focuses on implementation and rollout of the CRRF in Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, and Zambia in Africa.
Topic:
United Nations, Refugees, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, Zambia, Chad, Sahara, and Sub-Saharan Africa

3. Traditional Transitional Justice Mechanisms: Lessons from Africa

Author:
Nomathamsanqa Masiko-Mpaka
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
Transitional justice is widely accepted as a process for countries to employ when transitioning from authoritarian rule or armed conflict to democracy and in their quest to address legacies of systemic violence and human rights violations. As defined by the African Union, transitional justice refers to “the various (formal and traditional or non-formal) policy measures and institutional mechanisms that societies, through an inclusive consultative process, adopt in order to overcome past violations, divisions and inequalities and to create conditions for both security and democratic and socio-economic transformation.” While societies coming out of conflict or authoritarian rule have different histories, priorities and needs, commonly used mechanisms of transitional justice include criminal prosecutions, truth telling, reparations, institutional reforms, memorialisation, traditional justice, and vetting and lustration. The implementation of transitional justice is believed to be more effective, impactful and holistic when a combination of mechanisms is employed either simultaneously or sequentially.
Topic:
Human Rights, Democracy, Transitional Justice, Violence, and Justice
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda

4. Towards Anticipatory Information Systems and Action: Notes on Early Warning and Early Action in East Africa

Author:
Daniel Maxwell and Peter Hailey
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Despite humanitarian information being more available than ever, confusion persists as to what the information means, how to analyze it and turn it into actionable evidence, and how to ensure that evidence-based actions are actually undertaken on a timely basis. The key points of confusion and issues include: The difference between current status information, projections of populations in need, and early warning of threats or hazards. The difference between “hard” numbers (implying things that have already happened and can be counted) versus probabilistic information (implying things that are likely, but not certain, to happen). Linkages, or the lack thereof, between information systems and policy or programmatic action to anticipate, mitigate, or respond to a shock or worsening situation. Despite the fact that conflict is the most common factor driving extreme humanitarian crises, conflict analysis is the weakest part of early warning and information systems. The information systems do not (or minimally) engage with the communities at risk of shocks or resulting humanitarian crises. This paper reviews these and a number of additional issues with contemporary humanitarian information and early warning systems. While the cases focus on the East Africa region, they have broader implications as well.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, North Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

5. The “Central African” Jihad: Islamism and Nation-Building in Mozambique and Uganda

Author:
James Barnett
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The Islamic State (IS) has not scored many propaganda victories in the year since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed by U.S. forces in Idlib, which makes the recent seizure of a Mozambican port by IS-linked jihadists all the more significant. On August 12, 2020, militants seized Mocímboa da Praia in the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province from a demoralized Mozambican army running low on ammunition. This assault on a city of 30,000—the militants’ third and most successful this year 1—marked a notable evolution in an insurgency that began three years ago and was initially characterized by crude and sporadic attacks on villages in the northern province. IS media channels were quick to produce triumphalist statements about the operation, which it attributed to soldiers in its newest affiliate, the Central Africa Province (Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiya or ISCAP).
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, History, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, and Central African Republic

6. Technology and Gender Based Violence

Author:
SVRI
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:
Technologies are converging in new ways to change how we live, work and organize. In some cases, attempts are being made to use technology to make women’s access to services safer, reducing the risk of sexual harassment, a form of gender-based violence (GBV). It can be used to ensure easier, more comprehensive access to information and services, including for survivors of violence. However, technology can also be used to facilitate and expand the reach of GBV. Perpetrators can use technology to monitor, harass, threaten, intimidate, impersonate, and stalk victims.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Internet, Gender Based Violence, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:
Uganda, Pakistan, Kenya, India, Ethiopia, Honduras, and Democratic Republic of Congo

7. Not in My Backyard? Welfare Gains and Social Challenges: The Impact of Refugees on the Host Population in Uganda

Author:
Jana Kuhnt, Jana Lenze, and Ramona Rischke
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Development Institute (DIE)
Abstract:
This study exploits a natural experiment of three sudden Congolese refugee inflows to causally investigate the impact of an increased exposure to refugee presence on the Ugandan host population. We focus on the effects on female employment, household welfare and social cohesion among the host population. Using a repeated cross-section (pre- and post-treatment) of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data covering the years 2001 to 2011, we find that a higher exposure to our treatment variable increases the probability that Ugandan women are active in the labour market. This effect is mainly driven by agricultural employment. We also find that a higher treatment exposure has a positive impact on household wealth and a beneficial effect on nutritional indicators of children below the age of five. Our qualitative investigation suggests that incoming refugees improved labour market opportunities for Ugandan women, for instance, by increasing demand (such as for agricultural produce) and new marketing channels. These effects translated into positive average welfare effects for the host population. Irrespective of these welfare gains, analysing different dimensions of social cohesion using Afrobarometer data covering the years 2000 to 2012, we found that a higher exposure to our treatment variable was negatively associated with social cohesion indicators: a larger refugee presence was associated, for instance, with a rise in perceived inequality, as well as with lower levels of general trust among the host population. While the underlying mechanisms necessitate future research and a more nuanced analysis, we note that economic gains do not necessarily benefit social cohesion.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Refugees, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

8. Performance of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Uganda: The Role of Innovation

Author:
Ibrahim Okumu and Faizal Buyinza
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Using the 2013 World Bank Enterprise Survey data for Uganda, this paper employs the quintile estimation technique to explain the relationship between innovation and firm performance in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Innovation involves the introduction of a new or significantly improved production process, product, marketing technique or organizational structure. Our results indicate that individual processing, product, marketing and organizational innovations have no impact on labour productivity as proxied by sales per worker. However, the results indicate the presence of complementarity between the four types of innovation. Specifically, the effect of innovation on sales per worker is positive when an SME engages in all four types of innovation. Even then the complementarity is weakly positive with incidences of a negative relationship when using any combination of innovations that are less than the four types of innovation. Policy-wise the results suggest that efforts to incentivize innovation should be inclusive enough to encourage all four forms of innovation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Economic growth, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

9. Examining The Rise Of Popular Protests: The People Power Movement In Uganda

Author:
David E. Kiwuwa
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The People Power Movement (PPM) in Uganda has its roots in the growing politics of discontent in Africa and across the world. On the continent, the growth of popular movements has been evident in countries like Zimbabwe, Sudan, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, and Tunisia to mention but a few. These public protests have increased notably in number with their most significant recent manifestation being the Arab Spring. An important aspect of these pro- tests is the central role played by youth movements such as Y’en Maarre (Fed Up) in Senegal, Balai Citoyen (The Civic Broom) in Burkina Faso, and La Lucha (The Struggle) in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Over the past decade, mass uprisings in Africa have accounted for one in three of the nonviolent campaigns aiming to topple dictatorships around the world. With twenty-five new nonviolent mass movements, Africa has experienced almost twice as many as Asia, the next most active region with sixteen. What is common to all these movements is not only the active and public expression of discontent but also the existence of a long entrenched and increasingly indifferent ancien regime whose priority is political survival. In some ways, one could argue that emerging protests are largely a continuation of incomplete democratic struggles in authoritarian or semi-democratic regimes.
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Domestic politics, and Protests
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

10. The Development of Hydrocarbons in East Africa: Political and Security Challenges

Author:
Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
East Africa has the potential to experience a gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export boom in the coming years due to several projects that have been released. Mozambique has approved two projects totaling more than 15 million tons per year (Mt/yr.) of liquefied gas and a third should be started by the end of 2019. The first ENI Floating Liquefied Natural Gas plant (FLNG) will come onto the market in 2022 and four other onshore liquefaction trains, two of which will produce 6.44 Mt (Anadarko/Total) and two of which will produce 7.6 Mt (ExxonMobil/ENI), will be available around 2025. However, with the recoverable reserves, the companies involved are counting on 50 or even 60 Mt/yr. by 2030. This volume will help this East African country to achieve the world’s fourth-largest LNG export capacity in the medium term after the United States, Qatar and Australia. As for Tanzania, no development should be approved before 2020 in the best-case scenario.
Topic:
Security, Development, Oil, and Gas
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, and East Africa